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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 22 January 19
9TH GLOBAL MANUFACTURING SUPPLY CHAIN INNOVATION SUMMIT 2019
Rethinking the supply chain in manufacturing is a must at the digital era along with the industry transforming and innovating; new manufacturing is ...
Tuesday, 22 January 19
AUSTRALIA'S YANCOAL PRODUCED 50 MMT SALEABLE COAL IN 2018 UP 59 PER CENT ON THE YEAR PRIOR, THE QUARTERLY REPORT SHOWS
According to the report, the miner's quarterly (Q4' 18) saleable coal production of 12.4 Mmt. Includes 10.5 Mmt (85 per cent) from the Comp ...
Monday, 21 January 19
KOSPO INVITING BIDS FOR 320K MT OF LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
Monday, 21 January 19
SUPRAMAX: INDONESIAN COAL RUNS, TONNAGE WAS GIVING APS DELIVERIES AND A 57,000DWT SHIP FIXED AT $7,000 FOR A TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to a week that saw rates on the West Australia/China run slip below $6.00, as charterers faced a plentiful supply ...
Monday, 21 January 19
HARD COAL WORLD TRADE IN 2018 RISES BY 3.7 PER CENT; GLOBAL HARD COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 1.7 PER CENT - VDKI
Global Hard Coal Production Increases By 1.7%.
According to provisional calculations by the German Coal Importer Association (VDKi), ...
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
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