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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 12 June 19
IMO 2020 - COUNTDOWN TO 1 JANUARY 2020 -HOW WILL THE CHANGES AFFECT REFINING AND SHIPPING? - WOOD MACKENZIE
We know that the IMO’s regulations represent the biggest step change the shipping industry has ever seen and the implications will be felt th ...
Wednesday, 12 June 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
This year’s tanker S&P activity keeps edging higher compared to the same period in 2018. Year to date we have seen some 143 ships, rangin ...
Tuesday, 11 June 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SET AT $81.48 PER TON IN JUNE, DOWN 15.66 PERCENT YEAR-ON-YEAR
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 10 June 19
CONSECUTIVE OWNERS OF CARGO: WHO HOLDS TITLE AND THE RIGHT TO SUE? - COLIN BIGGERS & PAISLEY
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In Tritton Resources Pty Ltd v Ever Rock Navigation S.A. [2019] FCA 276, the Federal Court considered the application of ...
Monday, 10 June 19
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 1,305,000 MT OF MIN 5600 KCAL/KG NCV COAL FOR SEPT 2019 TO DEC 2021
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 435,000 MT (per year) of max 5,600 kcal/kg N ...
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Planning Commission, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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