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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 21 October 19
SHIPPERS CHANGE COURSE AS FUEL RULES TARGET SULPHUR EMISSIONS - WOOD MACKENZIE
The International Maritime Organization (IMO), the industry’s regulator, will require all ships to reduce the level of sulphur in their engin ...
Monday, 21 October 19
COAL TO PLAY SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN SOUTH AFRICA POWER MIX - MINISTER, REUTERS REPORTED
South Africa’s plans for additional power generation over the next decade will involve a variety of energy sources, with coal still playing a ...
Monday, 21 October 19
ULTRAMAX: IN ASIA, TRIPS FROM THE SINGAPORE AREA WERE PAYING BETWEEN $14,000 AND $16,000, DEPENDING ON THE VESSEL SIZE AND DURATION - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market traded in a relatively stable supported manner in the Pacific this week while the Atlantic experienced weakening turbulence ...
Friday, 18 October 19
WHY CRUDE TANKER RATES JUST FELL (HALFWAY) BACK TO EARTH - FREIGHT WAVES
Panic drove crude-tanker rates up, very briefly, to mind-bogglingly high assessed levels of around $300,000 per day. Now, the fear factor has been ...
Friday, 18 October 19
SHORT TERM STRENGTH FOR OZ COMMODITIES - BALTIC BRIEFING
Volatility in the global commodity markets is not expected to unduly rattle Australia’s commodity outlook through 2020, but the 2021 picture ...
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Showing 1306 to 1310 news of total 6871 |
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Planning Commission, India
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