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Tuesday, 18 September 18
COOLING OUTLOOK FOR COAL - KATE JONES
.jpg) At a time of increasing focus on the renewables market as the world seeks to clean up its act to prevent climate change, what is the outlook like for coal? If an August report from Statistics Market Research Consulting (Stratistics MRC) is anything to go by, the answer to that question appears to be, ‘not as bad as one might fear’.
The report, Coal Industry – Global Market Outlook (2017-2026), forecasts the global coal market to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 12.5% from 2017 to 2026 — and hit $34.65m by the latter year. An enlarging manufacturing base, rising economic growth and increasing electricity demand are some of the key factors propelling the growth, according to the study, though the report did claim that price instability is restricting market enlargement. Furthermore, the world coal market accounted for $11.93m last year. Based on geography, growth in the market during 2017-2026 is anticipated for the Asia-Pacific region —several nations in the area, such as China and Japan, lack energy resources and are therefore importing to meet requirements.
The world of the product
However, this positive picture stands somewhat alone. At the end of August, it was reported that a push to lessen the development of coal mines, as well as growing investor pressure to divest from fossil fuels, is generating a mining industry division between businesses leaving the sector and companies vowing to stay in it. Banks that have reportedly brought lending for new coal mines to a halt include Deutsche Bank and the Royal Bank of Scotland, while new project spending has dropped 80%, from $10bn in 2012 to $2.2bn this year. This trend, along with a government-led campaign in China to cut supply of domestic coal to reduce pollution, has made the coal price almost double over the last three years — to trade at $113 a tonne.
But some companies are staying in the industry or enlarging their presence. For the world’s biggest miner, BHP, there is confidence in coal’s staying power.
“The world, rightly or wrongly, is going to be using a lot of thermal coal,” claimed Peter Beaven, BHP’s chief financial officer, referring to the kind of coal used in power stations. The company has no plans to sell its coal assets — and neither does the biggest producer of seaborne coal for export globally, Glencore. In fact, Glencore is in expansion mode. This year, it purchased a 49% share in a Yancoal-operated thermal coal project in New South Wales in Australia and bought Rio Tinto’s Hail Creek coal mine in Queensland, also in Australia, for $1.7bn. The company reportedly made $2bn from its coal division in H1 2018, with the business estimating that at current prices, coal will be its largest earnings driver for the full year. Macquarie Group analysts describes the organisation as “slowly stepping into the breach, quietly consolidating its position in an unpopular sub-sector of the mining industry”.
However, not all coal miners have had such good fortune. In March, Rio Tinto sold its last coal mine to EMR Capital and Adaro Energy for $2.25bn, while South32 plans on selling its South African thermal coal assets to local investors later in 2018. South32 chief executive Graham Kerr has reportedly argued that thermal coal is increasingly becoming a focus of meetings with investors.
“Every six months, they tell you they can’t invest in you,” he noted.
What’s more, coal could soon find itself eclipsed by renewables. Fitch Solutions said at the end of August that renewable energy will play an increasingly important role in powering mining operations across the globe over the coming years, while Alexa Capital co-founder Gerard Reid has said that because wind and solar power have already become less expensive than coal-fired power in many parts of the world, a renewables move could happen faster than many believe.
The mixed messages mirror the division among investors and analysts over coal: while both the Church of England Pensions Board and BMO Global Asset Management have both turned away from supporting coal, Norway’s $1tr sovereign wealth fund (which owns Glencore shares), has said it would only exclude companies “which themselves, or through entities they control, derive 30% or more of their income from thermal coal”.
Area focus
Yet, Stratistics MRC’s prediction of Asia-Pacific coal market growth resonates with other indicators for the field. BP predicted that coal would likely stay the dominant energy source in Asia as late as 2040, while the Australian Bureau of Statistics said that Australia’s coal mining industry increased capital expenditure by 20% in 2017-18 to $3.5bn. However, analysts are split on how fast the planet’s largest coal consumer, China, will move away from the commodity. According to official figures, its coal consumption went up just 0.4% last year.
However, BHP, despite feeling that coal is set to “progressively lose competitiveness to renewables on a newbuild basis in the developed world and in China”, predicts that the crossover point will not be reached until the end of the next decade and says that coal power “is expected to retain competitiveness in India and other populous emerging markets for a much-longer time”.
As for the US, it was reported at the end of last month that US President Donald Trump was pushing forward with his endeavours to revive the US coal mining sector and that the Environmental Protection Agency claimed it was planning to repeal previous president Barack Obama’s Clean Power Plan, relaxing coal-fired power plant regulation. US coal miners like Peabody will no doubt be pleased by this shift in emphasis — its shares are up by 7% in the year to date, having reportedly been boosted by President Trump’s coal-supporting efforts.
Source: The Baltic Briefing
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Wednesday, 19 December 18
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND SET TO REMAIN STABLE THROUGH 2023, DESPITE HEADWINDS - IEA
While global coal demand looks set to rise for the second year in a row in 2018, it is forecast to remain stable over the next five years, as decli ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
GLOBAL SHIPPING SCOUTS FOR FUTURE GROWTH - PETER SAND, BIMCO
Where do we go to find economic growth that spurs shipping demand in the next five years? According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), we sh ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As another year is coming to an end, it is interesting to look at the main shipping markets and how these performed compared to 2017.
&nb ...
Tuesday, 18 December 18
COAL DEMAND WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGH 2023, INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY SAYS - TOM DICHRISTOPHER, CNBC
Coal consumption is on the rise but will remain roughly stable over the next five years, the International Energy Agency forecasts.
...
Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taki ...
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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