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Tuesday, 18 September 18
COOLING OUTLOOK FOR COAL - KATE JONES
.jpg) At a time of increasing focus on the renewables market as the world seeks to clean up its act to prevent climate change, what is the outlook like for coal? If an August report from Statistics Market Research Consulting (Stratistics MRC) is anything to go by, the answer to that question appears to be, ‘not as bad as one might fear’.
The report, Coal Industry – Global Market Outlook (2017-2026), forecasts the global coal market to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 12.5% from 2017 to 2026 — and hit $34.65m by the latter year. An enlarging manufacturing base, rising economic growth and increasing electricity demand are some of the key factors propelling the growth, according to the study, though the report did claim that price instability is restricting market enlargement. Furthermore, the world coal market accounted for $11.93m last year. Based on geography, growth in the market during 2017-2026 is anticipated for the Asia-Pacific region —several nations in the area, such as China and Japan, lack energy resources and are therefore importing to meet requirements.
The world of the product
However, this positive picture stands somewhat alone. At the end of August, it was reported that a push to lessen the development of coal mines, as well as growing investor pressure to divest from fossil fuels, is generating a mining industry division between businesses leaving the sector and companies vowing to stay in it. Banks that have reportedly brought lending for new coal mines to a halt include Deutsche Bank and the Royal Bank of Scotland, while new project spending has dropped 80%, from $10bn in 2012 to $2.2bn this year. This trend, along with a government-led campaign in China to cut supply of domestic coal to reduce pollution, has made the coal price almost double over the last three years — to trade at $113 a tonne.
But some companies are staying in the industry or enlarging their presence. For the world’s biggest miner, BHP, there is confidence in coal’s staying power.
“The world, rightly or wrongly, is going to be using a lot of thermal coal,” claimed Peter Beaven, BHP’s chief financial officer, referring to the kind of coal used in power stations. The company has no plans to sell its coal assets — and neither does the biggest producer of seaborne coal for export globally, Glencore. In fact, Glencore is in expansion mode. This year, it purchased a 49% share in a Yancoal-operated thermal coal project in New South Wales in Australia and bought Rio Tinto’s Hail Creek coal mine in Queensland, also in Australia, for $1.7bn. The company reportedly made $2bn from its coal division in H1 2018, with the business estimating that at current prices, coal will be its largest earnings driver for the full year. Macquarie Group analysts describes the organisation as “slowly stepping into the breach, quietly consolidating its position in an unpopular sub-sector of the mining industry”.
However, not all coal miners have had such good fortune. In March, Rio Tinto sold its last coal mine to EMR Capital and Adaro Energy for $2.25bn, while South32 plans on selling its South African thermal coal assets to local investors later in 2018. South32 chief executive Graham Kerr has reportedly argued that thermal coal is increasingly becoming a focus of meetings with investors.
“Every six months, they tell you they can’t invest in you,” he noted.
What’s more, coal could soon find itself eclipsed by renewables. Fitch Solutions said at the end of August that renewable energy will play an increasingly important role in powering mining operations across the globe over the coming years, while Alexa Capital co-founder Gerard Reid has said that because wind and solar power have already become less expensive than coal-fired power in many parts of the world, a renewables move could happen faster than many believe.
The mixed messages mirror the division among investors and analysts over coal: while both the Church of England Pensions Board and BMO Global Asset Management have both turned away from supporting coal, Norway’s $1tr sovereign wealth fund (which owns Glencore shares), has said it would only exclude companies “which themselves, or through entities they control, derive 30% or more of their income from thermal coal”.
Area focus
Yet, Stratistics MRC’s prediction of Asia-Pacific coal market growth resonates with other indicators for the field. BP predicted that coal would likely stay the dominant energy source in Asia as late as 2040, while the Australian Bureau of Statistics said that Australia’s coal mining industry increased capital expenditure by 20% in 2017-18 to $3.5bn. However, analysts are split on how fast the planet’s largest coal consumer, China, will move away from the commodity. According to official figures, its coal consumption went up just 0.4% last year.
However, BHP, despite feeling that coal is set to “progressively lose competitiveness to renewables on a newbuild basis in the developed world and in China”, predicts that the crossover point will not be reached until the end of the next decade and says that coal power “is expected to retain competitiveness in India and other populous emerging markets for a much-longer time”.
As for the US, it was reported at the end of last month that US President Donald Trump was pushing forward with his endeavours to revive the US coal mining sector and that the Environmental Protection Agency claimed it was planning to repeal previous president Barack Obama’s Clean Power Plan, relaxing coal-fired power plant regulation. US coal miners like Peabody will no doubt be pleased by this shift in emphasis — its shares are up by 7% in the year to date, having reportedly been boosted by President Trump’s coal-supporting efforts.
Source: The Baltic Briefing
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Tuesday, 25 December 18
FUEL QUALITY AND SAFETY IN IMO CONVENTIONS: A GROWING CHALLENGE, EVEN PRIOR TO 1 JANUARY 2020 - IUMI
At the 100th session of the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) Maritime Safety Committee (MSC) meeting discussions on fuel quality a ...
Monday, 24 December 18
DRY BULK MARKET: CAPESIZE MARKET ON BACKFOOT AS 2018'S END DRAWS NEAR - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Panic set in in the East as the holiday season approaches, with owners chasing rates lower. Rates on the key West Australia/China route ...
Friday, 21 December 18
4.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK SHIPS SCRAPPED UNTIL 17 DEC, DOWN 71.6% Y/Y - BIMCO
2018 has been a slow year for dry bulk demolitions, with only 4.2 million DWT scrapped (as of 17 December), down 71.6% compared to last year. An al ...
Thursday, 20 December 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICES DIVERGE FROM KEY BENCHMARK - FITCH RATINGS
The Newcastle 6,000kcal coal price benchmark that is widely used to determine most coal price estimates for Indonesian coal miners has increasingly ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
CHINA'S IMPORT RESTRICTIONS ON COAL SPOILS THE PARTY FOR PANAMAXES - DREWRY
The Chinese government’s objective of suppressing coal and lignite imports in November and December 2018 is adversely impacting demand for Pa ...
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Planning Commission, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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