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Tuesday, 18 September 18
COOLING OUTLOOK FOR COAL - KATE JONES
.jpg) At a time of increasing focus on the renewables market as the world seeks to clean up its act to prevent climate change, what is the outlook like for coal? If an August report from Statistics Market Research Consulting (Stratistics MRC) is anything to go by, the answer to that question appears to be, ‘not as bad as one might fear’.
The report, Coal Industry – Global Market Outlook (2017-2026), forecasts the global coal market to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 12.5% from 2017 to 2026 — and hit $34.65m by the latter year. An enlarging manufacturing base, rising economic growth and increasing electricity demand are some of the key factors propelling the growth, according to the study, though the report did claim that price instability is restricting market enlargement. Furthermore, the world coal market accounted for $11.93m last year. Based on geography, growth in the market during 2017-2026 is anticipated for the Asia-Pacific region —several nations in the area, such as China and Japan, lack energy resources and are therefore importing to meet requirements.
The world of the product
However, this positive picture stands somewhat alone. At the end of August, it was reported that a push to lessen the development of coal mines, as well as growing investor pressure to divest from fossil fuels, is generating a mining industry division between businesses leaving the sector and companies vowing to stay in it. Banks that have reportedly brought lending for new coal mines to a halt include Deutsche Bank and the Royal Bank of Scotland, while new project spending has dropped 80%, from $10bn in 2012 to $2.2bn this year. This trend, along with a government-led campaign in China to cut supply of domestic coal to reduce pollution, has made the coal price almost double over the last three years — to trade at $113 a tonne.
But some companies are staying in the industry or enlarging their presence. For the world’s biggest miner, BHP, there is confidence in coal’s staying power.
“The world, rightly or wrongly, is going to be using a lot of thermal coal,” claimed Peter Beaven, BHP’s chief financial officer, referring to the kind of coal used in power stations. The company has no plans to sell its coal assets — and neither does the biggest producer of seaborne coal for export globally, Glencore. In fact, Glencore is in expansion mode. This year, it purchased a 49% share in a Yancoal-operated thermal coal project in New South Wales in Australia and bought Rio Tinto’s Hail Creek coal mine in Queensland, also in Australia, for $1.7bn. The company reportedly made $2bn from its coal division in H1 2018, with the business estimating that at current prices, coal will be its largest earnings driver for the full year. Macquarie Group analysts describes the organisation as “slowly stepping into the breach, quietly consolidating its position in an unpopular sub-sector of the mining industry”.
However, not all coal miners have had such good fortune. In March, Rio Tinto sold its last coal mine to EMR Capital and Adaro Energy for $2.25bn, while South32 plans on selling its South African thermal coal assets to local investors later in 2018. South32 chief executive Graham Kerr has reportedly argued that thermal coal is increasingly becoming a focus of meetings with investors.
“Every six months, they tell you they can’t invest in you,” he noted.
What’s more, coal could soon find itself eclipsed by renewables. Fitch Solutions said at the end of August that renewable energy will play an increasingly important role in powering mining operations across the globe over the coming years, while Alexa Capital co-founder Gerard Reid has said that because wind and solar power have already become less expensive than coal-fired power in many parts of the world, a renewables move could happen faster than many believe.
The mixed messages mirror the division among investors and analysts over coal: while both the Church of England Pensions Board and BMO Global Asset Management have both turned away from supporting coal, Norway’s $1tr sovereign wealth fund (which owns Glencore shares), has said it would only exclude companies “which themselves, or through entities they control, derive 30% or more of their income from thermal coal”.
Area focus
Yet, Stratistics MRC’s prediction of Asia-Pacific coal market growth resonates with other indicators for the field. BP predicted that coal would likely stay the dominant energy source in Asia as late as 2040, while the Australian Bureau of Statistics said that Australia’s coal mining industry increased capital expenditure by 20% in 2017-18 to $3.5bn. However, analysts are split on how fast the planet’s largest coal consumer, China, will move away from the commodity. According to official figures, its coal consumption went up just 0.4% last year.
However, BHP, despite feeling that coal is set to “progressively lose competitiveness to renewables on a newbuild basis in the developed world and in China”, predicts that the crossover point will not be reached until the end of the next decade and says that coal power “is expected to retain competitiveness in India and other populous emerging markets for a much-longer time”.
As for the US, it was reported at the end of last month that US President Donald Trump was pushing forward with his endeavours to revive the US coal mining sector and that the Environmental Protection Agency claimed it was planning to repeal previous president Barack Obama’s Clean Power Plan, relaxing coal-fired power plant regulation. US coal miners like Peabody will no doubt be pleased by this shift in emphasis — its shares are up by 7% in the year to date, having reportedly been boosted by President Trump’s coal-supporting efforts.
Source: The Baltic Briefing
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Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resemble ...
Tuesday, 08 January 19
GLOBAL TRADE GROWTH EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT HEALTHY IN 2019 - ALLIED
2019 is here and we find ourselves with new challenges for the shipping industry and the global economy as whole, with market prospects being neith ...
Monday, 07 January 19
THE NEWCASTLE BENCHMARK SPOT PRICE IS FORECAST TO DECLINE FROM AN ESTIMATED AVERAGE OF US$105 A TONNE IN 2018 TO US$74 A TONNE IN 2020 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
• The Newcastle benchmark spot price is forecast to decline from an estimated average of US$105 a tonne in 2018 to US$74 a tonne in 2020, prim ...
Monday, 07 January 19
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED COAL BENCHMARK PRICE FALLS FOR FIFTH STRAIGHT MONTH IN JANUARY 2019; LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 07 January 19
RUSSIA'S COAL PRODUCTION UP 5.9% TO 433.4 MLN TONNES IN 2018 - TASS
Coal production in Russia in 2018 increased by 5.9% year-on-year to 433.4 mln tonnes, according to the Central Dispatching Department of Fuel Energ ...
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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