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Tuesday, 18 September 18
COOLING OUTLOOK FOR COAL - KATE JONES
.jpg) At a time of increasing focus on the renewables market as the world seeks to clean up its act to prevent climate change, what is the outlook like for coal? If an August report from Statistics Market Research Consulting (Stratistics MRC) is anything to go by, the answer to that question appears to be, ‘not as bad as one might fear’.
The report, Coal Industry – Global Market Outlook (2017-2026), forecasts the global coal market to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 12.5% from 2017 to 2026 — and hit $34.65m by the latter year. An enlarging manufacturing base, rising economic growth and increasing electricity demand are some of the key factors propelling the growth, according to the study, though the report did claim that price instability is restricting market enlargement. Furthermore, the world coal market accounted for $11.93m last year. Based on geography, growth in the market during 2017-2026 is anticipated for the Asia-Pacific region —several nations in the area, such as China and Japan, lack energy resources and are therefore importing to meet requirements.
The world of the product
However, this positive picture stands somewhat alone. At the end of August, it was reported that a push to lessen the development of coal mines, as well as growing investor pressure to divest from fossil fuels, is generating a mining industry division between businesses leaving the sector and companies vowing to stay in it. Banks that have reportedly brought lending for new coal mines to a halt include Deutsche Bank and the Royal Bank of Scotland, while new project spending has dropped 80%, from $10bn in 2012 to $2.2bn this year. This trend, along with a government-led campaign in China to cut supply of domestic coal to reduce pollution, has made the coal price almost double over the last three years — to trade at $113 a tonne.
But some companies are staying in the industry or enlarging their presence. For the world’s biggest miner, BHP, there is confidence in coal’s staying power.
“The world, rightly or wrongly, is going to be using a lot of thermal coal,” claimed Peter Beaven, BHP’s chief financial officer, referring to the kind of coal used in power stations. The company has no plans to sell its coal assets — and neither does the biggest producer of seaborne coal for export globally, Glencore. In fact, Glencore is in expansion mode. This year, it purchased a 49% share in a Yancoal-operated thermal coal project in New South Wales in Australia and bought Rio Tinto’s Hail Creek coal mine in Queensland, also in Australia, for $1.7bn. The company reportedly made $2bn from its coal division in H1 2018, with the business estimating that at current prices, coal will be its largest earnings driver for the full year. Macquarie Group analysts describes the organisation as “slowly stepping into the breach, quietly consolidating its position in an unpopular sub-sector of the mining industry”.
However, not all coal miners have had such good fortune. In March, Rio Tinto sold its last coal mine to EMR Capital and Adaro Energy for $2.25bn, while South32 plans on selling its South African thermal coal assets to local investors later in 2018. South32 chief executive Graham Kerr has reportedly argued that thermal coal is increasingly becoming a focus of meetings with investors.
“Every six months, they tell you they can’t invest in you,” he noted.
What’s more, coal could soon find itself eclipsed by renewables. Fitch Solutions said at the end of August that renewable energy will play an increasingly important role in powering mining operations across the globe over the coming years, while Alexa Capital co-founder Gerard Reid has said that because wind and solar power have already become less expensive than coal-fired power in many parts of the world, a renewables move could happen faster than many believe.
The mixed messages mirror the division among investors and analysts over coal: while both the Church of England Pensions Board and BMO Global Asset Management have both turned away from supporting coal, Norway’s $1tr sovereign wealth fund (which owns Glencore shares), has said it would only exclude companies “which themselves, or through entities they control, derive 30% or more of their income from thermal coal”.
Area focus
Yet, Stratistics MRC’s prediction of Asia-Pacific coal market growth resonates with other indicators for the field. BP predicted that coal would likely stay the dominant energy source in Asia as late as 2040, while the Australian Bureau of Statistics said that Australia’s coal mining industry increased capital expenditure by 20% in 2017-18 to $3.5bn. However, analysts are split on how fast the planet’s largest coal consumer, China, will move away from the commodity. According to official figures, its coal consumption went up just 0.4% last year.
However, BHP, despite feeling that coal is set to “progressively lose competitiveness to renewables on a newbuild basis in the developed world and in China”, predicts that the crossover point will not be reached until the end of the next decade and says that coal power “is expected to retain competitiveness in India and other populous emerging markets for a much-longer time”.
As for the US, it was reported at the end of last month that US President Donald Trump was pushing forward with his endeavours to revive the US coal mining sector and that the Environmental Protection Agency claimed it was planning to repeal previous president Barack Obama’s Clean Power Plan, relaxing coal-fired power plant regulation. US coal miners like Peabody will no doubt be pleased by this shift in emphasis — its shares are up by 7% in the year to date, having reportedly been boosted by President Trump’s coal-supporting efforts.
Source: The Baltic Briefing
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Friday, 11 January 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA HAD A MIXED START; LIMITED ACTION IN SOUTHEAST ASIA - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Dashed hopes summed up the first full week of the New Year. A slow start followed by a busy 24 hours of improving rates and a firming ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
BUNKER DELIVERY NOTE AMENDMENTS ENTER INTO FORCE AS SULPHUR 2020 REQUIREMENT LOOMS - IMO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Amendments to the bunker delivery note relating to the supply of marine fuel oil to ships which have fitted alternative m ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
WORLD TRADE IN THERMAL COAL IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE GROWN BY 1.0 PER CENT IN 2018 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
World Trade
World trade in thermal coal is estimated to have grown by 1.0 per cent to 1.1 billion tonnes in 2018 but it is expected to decline ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
PAKISTAN'S COAL IMPORTS TO SURGE TO 30 MILLION TONS PER ANNUM BY 2020 - CEO, PIB
Pakistan’s coal imports are estimated to surge to 30 million tons/annum from existing 20 million tons/annum by the year 2020, given the plann ...
Wednesday, 09 January 19
PANAMAX: THE PACIFIC SAW RELATIVELY GOOD DEMAND PARTICULARLY FROM INDONESIA AND NOPAC - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was an active start to the New Year, with trading from West Australia maintaining momentum during the holiday period. Rates for Chi ...
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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