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Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down for the month. Price declines were mainly due to worries that the ongoing global trade disputes would lower oil demand, strengthening US dollar, US stock builds and reported supply increases. ICE Brent was $1.11 lower at $73.84/b compared to the previous month, while NYMEX WTI was down $2.74 at $67.85/b and DME Oman dropped 24¢ to $72.67/b. However, year-to-date (y-t-d) ICE Brent was still $19.86 higher at $72.00/b, while NYMEX WTI increased by $17.12 to $66.42/b and DME Oman was up $18.70 at $69.55/b. The Brent-WTI spread widened to average $6.00/b. Speculative net long positions ended mixed, with those of NYMEX WTI lower. As for market structure, the backwardation in Dubai remained unchanged, while that of WTI eased. The contango structure for Brent for the rest of the year deepened amid increasing supplies. The discount of sour to sweet crudes decreased due to an anticipated tightening of sour crude, while sweet crude availability was ample.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019. In the OECD, growth in the US is assessed unchanged at 2.9% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. Euro-zone growth remains at 2.0% for 2018 and 1.9% for 2019. GDP growth in Japan is revised down by 0.1 pp to 1.1% in both 2018 and 2019. Meanwhile, in the non-OECD, India’s forecast is revised up to 7.6% for 2018, while remaining unchanged at 7.4% for 2019. China’s GDP growth remains at 6.6% for 2018 and 6.2% for 2019. Growth in Brazil is revised down by 0.4% to reach 1.2% in 2018, but a rebound to 2.0% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast is also revised lower to 1.6% in 2018 and down to 1.7% in 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, world oil demand is expected to grow by 1.62 mb/d, a minor downward revision from last month’s projection. In the OECD region, oil demand saw healthy growth in all three main OECD regions, particularly in the Americas over 1H18. In contrast, the non-OECD region, mainly Latin America and the Middle East, saw weaker oil requirements in 1H18 as well as slower economic projections, which has led to a net downward revision of 20 tb/d from last month’s report. Total oil demand for 2018 is now estimated at 98.82 mb/d. In 2019, world oil demand growth is forecast to rise by 1.41 mb/d, a minor downward adjustment of 20 tb/d from the previous month’s assessment, mainly reflecting the less optimistic economic projections in the non-OECD regions of Latin America and the Middle East compared to last month. Total world oil demand in 2019 is now projected to surpass 100 mb/d for the first time and reach 100.23 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 is expected to grow by 2.02 mb/d, a downward revision of 64 tb/d. The US, Canada, Kazakhstan the UK, and Brazil remain to be the main drivers for growth, while Mexico and Norway are projected to show the largest declines. Total non-OPEC supply for 2018 is now estimated at 59.56 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is forecast to grow by 2.15 mb/d, a minor upward revision of 17 tb/d. The US, Brazil, Canada, and the UK are expected to be the main growth drivers, while Mexico and Norway remain to be the largest declines. Non-OPEC supply is now forecast to average 61.71 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs in 2018 and 2019 are expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In August, OPEC crude oil production increased by 278 tb/d to average 32.56 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins at all main trading hubs recorded gains in August as several refinery outages prompted product supply disruptions, which led to strengthening at the top and middle of the barrel. In the US, product markets strengthened, supported mainly by higher product exports, particularly to Latin America. In Europe, declining Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp product inventories resulted in tighter product balances, which provided substantial support to refining margins. Meanwhile in Asia, refining margins strengthened on the back of lower refinery intakes caused by unplanned shutdowns and bullish market sentiment.
Tanker Market
In August, dirty vessel spot freight rates increased by 5% on average compared to a month earlier. This was mainly driven by higher freight rates for VLCC and Aframax, while average Suezmax freight rates showed a decline. Enhanced activity and delays on the US Gulf Coast (USGC) and Asia supported freight rates in August. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates remained under pressure as high vessel availability continued, while tonnage demand remained limited, therefore resulting in rate declines in both the eastern and western directions of Suez.
Stock Movements
Data for July showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 8.1 mb m-o-m, standing at 2,830 mb, which is 194 mb lower than a year ago and 43 mb below the latest five-year average, but remain 260 mb above the January 2014 level. Compared to the latest five-year average, crude stocks indicated a deficit of 0.2 mb, while product stocks witnessed a deficit of 43 mb. In terms of days of forward demand cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.1 days m-o-m in July to stand at 59.1 days, which is 2.3 days below the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, which is 0.5 mb/d lower than in the previous year. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.1 mb/d, around 0.9 mb/d lower than a year earlier.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 04 July 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
2 years tanker briefing in tanker asset prices
The tanker market is undoubtedly passing one of its’ roughest times over the la ...
Tuesday, 03 July 18
COAL, THE SECOND MAIN COMMODITY FOR CAPES, HAS BEEN SHOWING A REMARKABLE RISE IN TRADE VOLUMES IN THE YEAR SO FAR - THOMAS CHASAPIS
Having reached the mid-point in the year, it seems to be a good time to summarize the overall trends noted in the Dry Bulk sector and more specific ...
Tuesday, 03 July 18
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000-DWT WAS FIXED BASIS DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, AT $12,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market generally drifted and by mid-week dropped to what some felt was an artificially low level, only to bounce back at the end o ...
Tuesday, 03 July 18
COAL OVERTAKES IRON ORE IN GOVERNMENT FORECASTS AS AUSTRALIA'S LARGEST EXPORT FOR 2018-19 - MINERALS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA
Coal is forecast to be Australia’s largest export earner at $58.1 billion in 2018-19 with iron ore exports forecast to earn $57.7 billion in ...
Monday, 02 July 18
THIESS SECURES NEW QCOAL NORTHERN HUB $480M CONTRACT
Thiess has been awarded a new A$480 million contract by QCoal to continue operations at the QCoal Northern Hub located in Queensland’s Bowen ...
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The University of Queensland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Planning Commission, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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