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Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down for the month. Price declines were mainly due to worries that the ongoing global trade disputes would lower oil demand, strengthening US dollar, US stock builds and reported supply increases. ICE Brent was $1.11 lower at $73.84/b compared to the previous month, while NYMEX WTI was down $2.74 at $67.85/b and DME Oman dropped 24¢ to $72.67/b. However, year-to-date (y-t-d) ICE Brent was still $19.86 higher at $72.00/b, while NYMEX WTI increased by $17.12 to $66.42/b and DME Oman was up $18.70 at $69.55/b. The Brent-WTI spread widened to average $6.00/b. Speculative net long positions ended mixed, with those of NYMEX WTI lower. As for market structure, the backwardation in Dubai remained unchanged, while that of WTI eased. The contango structure for Brent for the rest of the year deepened amid increasing supplies. The discount of sour to sweet crudes decreased due to an anticipated tightening of sour crude, while sweet crude availability was ample.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019. In the OECD, growth in the US is assessed unchanged at 2.9% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. Euro-zone growth remains at 2.0% for 2018 and 1.9% for 2019. GDP growth in Japan is revised down by 0.1 pp to 1.1% in both 2018 and 2019. Meanwhile, in the non-OECD, India’s forecast is revised up to 7.6% for 2018, while remaining unchanged at 7.4% for 2019. China’s GDP growth remains at 6.6% for 2018 and 6.2% for 2019. Growth in Brazil is revised down by 0.4% to reach 1.2% in 2018, but a rebound to 2.0% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast is also revised lower to 1.6% in 2018 and down to 1.7% in 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, world oil demand is expected to grow by 1.62 mb/d, a minor downward revision from last month’s projection. In the OECD region, oil demand saw healthy growth in all three main OECD regions, particularly in the Americas over 1H18. In contrast, the non-OECD region, mainly Latin America and the Middle East, saw weaker oil requirements in 1H18 as well as slower economic projections, which has led to a net downward revision of 20 tb/d from last month’s report. Total oil demand for 2018 is now estimated at 98.82 mb/d. In 2019, world oil demand growth is forecast to rise by 1.41 mb/d, a minor downward adjustment of 20 tb/d from the previous month’s assessment, mainly reflecting the less optimistic economic projections in the non-OECD regions of Latin America and the Middle East compared to last month. Total world oil demand in 2019 is now projected to surpass 100 mb/d for the first time and reach 100.23 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 is expected to grow by 2.02 mb/d, a downward revision of 64 tb/d. The US, Canada, Kazakhstan the UK, and Brazil remain to be the main drivers for growth, while Mexico and Norway are projected to show the largest declines. Total non-OPEC supply for 2018 is now estimated at 59.56 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is forecast to grow by 2.15 mb/d, a minor upward revision of 17 tb/d. The US, Brazil, Canada, and the UK are expected to be the main growth drivers, while Mexico and Norway remain to be the largest declines. Non-OPEC supply is now forecast to average 61.71 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs in 2018 and 2019 are expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In August, OPEC crude oil production increased by 278 tb/d to average 32.56 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins at all main trading hubs recorded gains in August as several refinery outages prompted product supply disruptions, which led to strengthening at the top and middle of the barrel. In the US, product markets strengthened, supported mainly by higher product exports, particularly to Latin America. In Europe, declining Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp product inventories resulted in tighter product balances, which provided substantial support to refining margins. Meanwhile in Asia, refining margins strengthened on the back of lower refinery intakes caused by unplanned shutdowns and bullish market sentiment.
Tanker Market
In August, dirty vessel spot freight rates increased by 5% on average compared to a month earlier. This was mainly driven by higher freight rates for VLCC and Aframax, while average Suezmax freight rates showed a decline. Enhanced activity and delays on the US Gulf Coast (USGC) and Asia supported freight rates in August. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates remained under pressure as high vessel availability continued, while tonnage demand remained limited, therefore resulting in rate declines in both the eastern and western directions of Suez.
Stock Movements
Data for July showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 8.1 mb m-o-m, standing at 2,830 mb, which is 194 mb lower than a year ago and 43 mb below the latest five-year average, but remain 260 mb above the January 2014 level. Compared to the latest five-year average, crude stocks indicated a deficit of 0.2 mb, while product stocks witnessed a deficit of 43 mb. In terms of days of forward demand cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.1 days m-o-m in July to stand at 59.1 days, which is 2.3 days below the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, which is 0.5 mb/d lower than in the previous year. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.1 mb/d, around 0.9 mb/d lower than a year earlier.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 06 July 18
HOW FLEET SIZE, CORPORATE PROFILE AND STRATEGY ARE DECIDING FACTORS IN SELECTING AN APPROPRIATE FINANCING STRATEGY - PWC
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The challenges that shipping companies are facing when selecting an appropriate financing strategy during the current per ...
Friday, 06 July 18
INDIA: GOVT TO RELAX CURBS ON INDIAN FIRMS CHARTERING FOREIGN SHIPS - HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The Ministry of Shipping is clearly in reform mode. On the heels of the recent relaxation of the cabotage law, which allows foreign flag vessels to ...
Friday, 06 July 18
AUSTRALIAN NEWCASTLE SPOT COAL PRICES HIT $120 FOR 1ST TIME SINCE 2012 - REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices have broken through $120 per tonne for the first time since 2012, driven up by strong consumption in Asia and spot m ...
Thursday, 05 July 18
WHAT THE FAILED GLENCORE-TOHOKU COAL TALKS MEAN FOR THE MARKET - REUTERS
Electric utilities in Japan and other Asian countries are driving blind when it comes to coal prices after the failure of Japan’s Tohoku Elec ...
Thursday, 05 July 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HITS 74 MONTHS HIGH OF $104.65 A TON
COALspot.com: HBA keeps rising. According to latest ministerial decree No.1892 K/30/MEM/2018 dated 2 July 2018, the Indonesian Coal Price Reference ...
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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