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Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down for the month. Price declines were mainly due to worries that the ongoing global trade disputes would lower oil demand, strengthening US dollar, US stock builds and reported supply increases. ICE Brent was $1.11 lower at $73.84/b compared to the previous month, while NYMEX WTI was down $2.74 at $67.85/b and DME Oman dropped 24¢ to $72.67/b. However, year-to-date (y-t-d) ICE Brent was still $19.86 higher at $72.00/b, while NYMEX WTI increased by $17.12 to $66.42/b and DME Oman was up $18.70 at $69.55/b. The Brent-WTI spread widened to average $6.00/b. Speculative net long positions ended mixed, with those of NYMEX WTI lower. As for market structure, the backwardation in Dubai remained unchanged, while that of WTI eased. The contango structure for Brent for the rest of the year deepened amid increasing supplies. The discount of sour to sweet crudes decreased due to an anticipated tightening of sour crude, while sweet crude availability was ample.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019. In the OECD, growth in the US is assessed unchanged at 2.9% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. Euro-zone growth remains at 2.0% for 2018 and 1.9% for 2019. GDP growth in Japan is revised down by 0.1 pp to 1.1% in both 2018 and 2019. Meanwhile, in the non-OECD, India’s forecast is revised up to 7.6% for 2018, while remaining unchanged at 7.4% for 2019. China’s GDP growth remains at 6.6% for 2018 and 6.2% for 2019. Growth in Brazil is revised down by 0.4% to reach 1.2% in 2018, but a rebound to 2.0% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast is also revised lower to 1.6% in 2018 and down to 1.7% in 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, world oil demand is expected to grow by 1.62 mb/d, a minor downward revision from last month’s projection. In the OECD region, oil demand saw healthy growth in all three main OECD regions, particularly in the Americas over 1H18. In contrast, the non-OECD region, mainly Latin America and the Middle East, saw weaker oil requirements in 1H18 as well as slower economic projections, which has led to a net downward revision of 20 tb/d from last month’s report. Total oil demand for 2018 is now estimated at 98.82 mb/d. In 2019, world oil demand growth is forecast to rise by 1.41 mb/d, a minor downward adjustment of 20 tb/d from the previous month’s assessment, mainly reflecting the less optimistic economic projections in the non-OECD regions of Latin America and the Middle East compared to last month. Total world oil demand in 2019 is now projected to surpass 100 mb/d for the first time and reach 100.23 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 is expected to grow by 2.02 mb/d, a downward revision of 64 tb/d. The US, Canada, Kazakhstan the UK, and Brazil remain to be the main drivers for growth, while Mexico and Norway are projected to show the largest declines. Total non-OPEC supply for 2018 is now estimated at 59.56 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is forecast to grow by 2.15 mb/d, a minor upward revision of 17 tb/d. The US, Brazil, Canada, and the UK are expected to be the main growth drivers, while Mexico and Norway remain to be the largest declines. Non-OPEC supply is now forecast to average 61.71 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs in 2018 and 2019 are expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In August, OPEC crude oil production increased by 278 tb/d to average 32.56 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins at all main trading hubs recorded gains in August as several refinery outages prompted product supply disruptions, which led to strengthening at the top and middle of the barrel. In the US, product markets strengthened, supported mainly by higher product exports, particularly to Latin America. In Europe, declining Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp product inventories resulted in tighter product balances, which provided substantial support to refining margins. Meanwhile in Asia, refining margins strengthened on the back of lower refinery intakes caused by unplanned shutdowns and bullish market sentiment.
Tanker Market
In August, dirty vessel spot freight rates increased by 5% on average compared to a month earlier. This was mainly driven by higher freight rates for VLCC and Aframax, while average Suezmax freight rates showed a decline. Enhanced activity and delays on the US Gulf Coast (USGC) and Asia supported freight rates in August. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates remained under pressure as high vessel availability continued, while tonnage demand remained limited, therefore resulting in rate declines in both the eastern and western directions of Suez.
Stock Movements
Data for July showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 8.1 mb m-o-m, standing at 2,830 mb, which is 194 mb lower than a year ago and 43 mb below the latest five-year average, but remain 260 mb above the January 2014 level. Compared to the latest five-year average, crude stocks indicated a deficit of 0.2 mb, while product stocks witnessed a deficit of 43 mb. In terms of days of forward demand cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.1 days m-o-m in July to stand at 59.1 days, which is 2.3 days below the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, which is 0.5 mb/d lower than in the previous year. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.1 mb/d, around 0.9 mb/d lower than a year earlier.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 19 November 18
SUPRAMAX: THE BSI CONTINUED TO FALL LAST WEEK, ESPECIALLY THE ASIAN ROUTES - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
After a cut throat couple of weeks, the market finally appeared to have found a floor and rates ticked up. Those analysts that predict ...
Sunday, 18 November 18
COAL STOCKS IN A THIRD OF NTPC PLANTS CLOSE TO NIL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal supply shortage continues to haunt NTPC, the country’s largest power generator, with latest government data showing 31% of the company&r ...
Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia an ...
Wednesday, 14 November 18
BIMCO ADOPTS 2020 BUNKER CLAUSES
BIMCO has developed two 2020 bunker clauses that deal with general compliance and the transitional period for an early December release.
...
Wednesday, 14 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
The shipping industry is going through an interesting period across all markets. Since the end of last year, the Dry Baltic Index has been showing ...
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Planning Commission, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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