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Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down for the month. Price declines were mainly due to worries that the ongoing global trade disputes would lower oil demand, strengthening US dollar, US stock builds and reported supply increases. ICE Brent was $1.11 lower at $73.84/b compared to the previous month, while NYMEX WTI was down $2.74 at $67.85/b and DME Oman dropped 24¢ to $72.67/b. However, year-to-date (y-t-d) ICE Brent was still $19.86 higher at $72.00/b, while NYMEX WTI increased by $17.12 to $66.42/b and DME Oman was up $18.70 at $69.55/b. The Brent-WTI spread widened to average $6.00/b. Speculative net long positions ended mixed, with those of NYMEX WTI lower. As for market structure, the backwardation in Dubai remained unchanged, while that of WTI eased. The contango structure for Brent for the rest of the year deepened amid increasing supplies. The discount of sour to sweet crudes decreased due to an anticipated tightening of sour crude, while sweet crude availability was ample.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019. In the OECD, growth in the US is assessed unchanged at 2.9% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. Euro-zone growth remains at 2.0% for 2018 and 1.9% for 2019. GDP growth in Japan is revised down by 0.1 pp to 1.1% in both 2018 and 2019. Meanwhile, in the non-OECD, India’s forecast is revised up to 7.6% for 2018, while remaining unchanged at 7.4% for 2019. China’s GDP growth remains at 6.6% for 2018 and 6.2% for 2019. Growth in Brazil is revised down by 0.4% to reach 1.2% in 2018, but a rebound to 2.0% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast is also revised lower to 1.6% in 2018 and down to 1.7% in 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, world oil demand is expected to grow by 1.62 mb/d, a minor downward revision from last month’s projection. In the OECD region, oil demand saw healthy growth in all three main OECD regions, particularly in the Americas over 1H18. In contrast, the non-OECD region, mainly Latin America and the Middle East, saw weaker oil requirements in 1H18 as well as slower economic projections, which has led to a net downward revision of 20 tb/d from last month’s report. Total oil demand for 2018 is now estimated at 98.82 mb/d. In 2019, world oil demand growth is forecast to rise by 1.41 mb/d, a minor downward adjustment of 20 tb/d from the previous month’s assessment, mainly reflecting the less optimistic economic projections in the non-OECD regions of Latin America and the Middle East compared to last month. Total world oil demand in 2019 is now projected to surpass 100 mb/d for the first time and reach 100.23 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 is expected to grow by 2.02 mb/d, a downward revision of 64 tb/d. The US, Canada, Kazakhstan the UK, and Brazil remain to be the main drivers for growth, while Mexico and Norway are projected to show the largest declines. Total non-OPEC supply for 2018 is now estimated at 59.56 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is forecast to grow by 2.15 mb/d, a minor upward revision of 17 tb/d. The US, Brazil, Canada, and the UK are expected to be the main growth drivers, while Mexico and Norway remain to be the largest declines. Non-OPEC supply is now forecast to average 61.71 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs in 2018 and 2019 are expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In August, OPEC crude oil production increased by 278 tb/d to average 32.56 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins at all main trading hubs recorded gains in August as several refinery outages prompted product supply disruptions, which led to strengthening at the top and middle of the barrel. In the US, product markets strengthened, supported mainly by higher product exports, particularly to Latin America. In Europe, declining Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp product inventories resulted in tighter product balances, which provided substantial support to refining margins. Meanwhile in Asia, refining margins strengthened on the back of lower refinery intakes caused by unplanned shutdowns and bullish market sentiment.
Tanker Market
In August, dirty vessel spot freight rates increased by 5% on average compared to a month earlier. This was mainly driven by higher freight rates for VLCC and Aframax, while average Suezmax freight rates showed a decline. Enhanced activity and delays on the US Gulf Coast (USGC) and Asia supported freight rates in August. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates remained under pressure as high vessel availability continued, while tonnage demand remained limited, therefore resulting in rate declines in both the eastern and western directions of Suez.
Stock Movements
Data for July showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 8.1 mb m-o-m, standing at 2,830 mb, which is 194 mb lower than a year ago and 43 mb below the latest five-year average, but remain 260 mb above the January 2014 level. Compared to the latest five-year average, crude stocks indicated a deficit of 0.2 mb, while product stocks witnessed a deficit of 43 mb. In terms of days of forward demand cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.1 days m-o-m in July to stand at 59.1 days, which is 2.3 days below the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, which is 0.5 mb/d lower than in the previous year. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.1 mb/d, around 0.9 mb/d lower than a year earlier.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 02 November 18
COAL FETCHES 102% PREMIUM IN E-AUCTION, SURPASSING THE EARLIER HIGHEST OF 95% - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal prices have received a premium of 102% in spot e-auction during September 2018, surpassing the earlier highest of 95% premium during the spot ...
Friday, 02 November 18
CHINA: COAL CONSUMPTION POSTS STRONG GROWTH ON BACK OF POWER GENERATION DEMAND - CHINA DAILY
China’s energy consumption experienced continuous rebound during the first three quarters in 2018, National Energy Administration announced o ...
Thursday, 01 November 18
IMO 2020 - EXPLORING THE OPTION OF SOX SCRUBBERS - SIDDHARTH MAHAJAN, GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
There are four possible methods of compliance:
1.use VLSFO (very low Sulphur oil) or blends;
2,use dis ...
Wednesday, 31 October 18
INDIA: COAL IMPORTS SURGE ON DOMESTIC SHORT SUPPLY - HINDU
Shortage of thermal coal supply in India has pushed imports up to 85 million tonnes (mt) in the first half of the current fiscal compared to 75 mt ...
Wednesday, 31 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - APOSTOLOS ROMPOPOULOS
Since the IMO’s 2020 global cap on sulphur in marine fuels is coming into force, ship-owners have to decide whether they will operate using e ...
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Australian Coal Association
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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