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Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down for the month. Price declines were mainly due to worries that the ongoing global trade disputes would lower oil demand, strengthening US dollar, US stock builds and reported supply increases. ICE Brent was $1.11 lower at $73.84/b compared to the previous month, while NYMEX WTI was down $2.74 at $67.85/b and DME Oman dropped 24¢ to $72.67/b. However, year-to-date (y-t-d) ICE Brent was still $19.86 higher at $72.00/b, while NYMEX WTI increased by $17.12 to $66.42/b and DME Oman was up $18.70 at $69.55/b. The Brent-WTI spread widened to average $6.00/b. Speculative net long positions ended mixed, with those of NYMEX WTI lower. As for market structure, the backwardation in Dubai remained unchanged, while that of WTI eased. The contango structure for Brent for the rest of the year deepened amid increasing supplies. The discount of sour to sweet crudes decreased due to an anticipated tightening of sour crude, while sweet crude availability was ample.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019. In the OECD, growth in the US is assessed unchanged at 2.9% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. Euro-zone growth remains at 2.0% for 2018 and 1.9% for 2019. GDP growth in Japan is revised down by 0.1 pp to 1.1% in both 2018 and 2019. Meanwhile, in the non-OECD, India’s forecast is revised up to 7.6% for 2018, while remaining unchanged at 7.4% for 2019. China’s GDP growth remains at 6.6% for 2018 and 6.2% for 2019. Growth in Brazil is revised down by 0.4% to reach 1.2% in 2018, but a rebound to 2.0% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast is also revised lower to 1.6% in 2018 and down to 1.7% in 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, world oil demand is expected to grow by 1.62 mb/d, a minor downward revision from last month’s projection. In the OECD region, oil demand saw healthy growth in all three main OECD regions, particularly in the Americas over 1H18. In contrast, the non-OECD region, mainly Latin America and the Middle East, saw weaker oil requirements in 1H18 as well as slower economic projections, which has led to a net downward revision of 20 tb/d from last month’s report. Total oil demand for 2018 is now estimated at 98.82 mb/d. In 2019, world oil demand growth is forecast to rise by 1.41 mb/d, a minor downward adjustment of 20 tb/d from the previous month’s assessment, mainly reflecting the less optimistic economic projections in the non-OECD regions of Latin America and the Middle East compared to last month. Total world oil demand in 2019 is now projected to surpass 100 mb/d for the first time and reach 100.23 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 is expected to grow by 2.02 mb/d, a downward revision of 64 tb/d. The US, Canada, Kazakhstan the UK, and Brazil remain to be the main drivers for growth, while Mexico and Norway are projected to show the largest declines. Total non-OPEC supply for 2018 is now estimated at 59.56 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is forecast to grow by 2.15 mb/d, a minor upward revision of 17 tb/d. The US, Brazil, Canada, and the UK are expected to be the main growth drivers, while Mexico and Norway remain to be the largest declines. Non-OPEC supply is now forecast to average 61.71 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs in 2018 and 2019 are expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In August, OPEC crude oil production increased by 278 tb/d to average 32.56 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins at all main trading hubs recorded gains in August as several refinery outages prompted product supply disruptions, which led to strengthening at the top and middle of the barrel. In the US, product markets strengthened, supported mainly by higher product exports, particularly to Latin America. In Europe, declining Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp product inventories resulted in tighter product balances, which provided substantial support to refining margins. Meanwhile in Asia, refining margins strengthened on the back of lower refinery intakes caused by unplanned shutdowns and bullish market sentiment.
Tanker Market
In August, dirty vessel spot freight rates increased by 5% on average compared to a month earlier. This was mainly driven by higher freight rates for VLCC and Aframax, while average Suezmax freight rates showed a decline. Enhanced activity and delays on the US Gulf Coast (USGC) and Asia supported freight rates in August. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates remained under pressure as high vessel availability continued, while tonnage demand remained limited, therefore resulting in rate declines in both the eastern and western directions of Suez.
Stock Movements
Data for July showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 8.1 mb m-o-m, standing at 2,830 mb, which is 194 mb lower than a year ago and 43 mb below the latest five-year average, but remain 260 mb above the January 2014 level. Compared to the latest five-year average, crude stocks indicated a deficit of 0.2 mb, while product stocks witnessed a deficit of 43 mb. In terms of days of forward demand cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.1 days m-o-m in July to stand at 59.1 days, which is 2.3 days below the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, which is 0.5 mb/d lower than in the previous year. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.1 mb/d, around 0.9 mb/d lower than a year earlier.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 22 November 18
SHUT OUT OF CHINA, U.S. COAL EXPORTERS FIND FAVOUR IN INDIA, FOR NOW - REUTERS
U.S. coal exporters have effectively lost a promising market in China since the imposition of tariffs as part of the ongoing trade dispute, but so ...
Wednesday, 21 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - DIMITRIS KOURTESIS
Halfway through the fourth and last quarter of the year, we spot a significant change in freight rates for tankers trading dirty, as well as on the ...
Tuesday, 20 November 18
FREIGHT RATES IN THE CRUDE OIL MARKET HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS - YIANNIS VAMVAKAS
Current geopolitical developments between Iran and the US, which have led the latter to re-impose its sanctions, have significantly affected oil pr ...
Tuesday, 20 November 18
GOLDEN ENERGY AND RESOURCES LEADS A$249M BID FOR AUSTRALIA-LISTED STANMORE COAL - THE STRAITS TIMES
Singapore-listed Golden Energy and Resources (GEAR) is leading deals worth up to A$249 million (S$250 million) to acquire Australia-listed Stanmore ...
Monday, 19 November 18
INDONESIA'S LEADING EIGHT COAL MINER'S COAL MINING CONTRACTS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPIRE BETWEEN YEAR 2019 - 2025
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) said, eight Coal Contract of Works (CCoW) will expected to expire between 2019 to 2026, Liputan ...
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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