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Wednesday, 12 September 18
IS LNG POISED FOR A NEW GROWTH CYCLE? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gas needs to work for its long-term sustainability. But the mood music is upbeat. Just 18 months ago the LNG market was depressed, anticipating an extended period of oversupply. Things haven’t played out quite like that, and prices have staged a strong recovery.
The market may not be out of the woods yet, as supply builds up next year potentially putting some downward pressure on prices. But the outlook beyond is bullish, with 65 mmtpa of new supply needed to meet growing demand by 2025 – that’s 20 mmtpa more than we forecast a year ago.
How have things turned round so quickly?
Demand has been firmer. Low prices drew buyers into the market after Asian LNG prices fell 75% from the 2013 peak of US$17/mmbtu to US$4/mmbtu by 2016. China began a buying spree that hasn’t stopped, spurred by the Government’s initiative to improve air quality in its cities. The Paris Agreement of 2015 has hardened energy policy – European governments are accelerating a shift away from coal to the benefit of renewables as well as gas. A new and diverse breed of countries has joined the traditional LNG buyers, among them Pakistan, Bangladesh, Colombia, Jamaica and Panama. LNG has gone global in the downturn.
Europe emerges as key growth target for LNG suppliers
Delayed production startup at some new LNG projects has also diminished the feared oversupply. Future gas supply in Europe will be structurally reduced by the decline of Groningen. The Dutch field, a pillar of continental supply for over 50 years, is beset by earthquakes. Volumes will be cut to minimal levels in the early 2020s and cease in 2030. With Russian pipelines maxed out, even with modest demand growth Europe has emerged as a key growth target for LNG suppliers. The loss of Groningen alone accounts for half of the 20 mmtpa increase in our forecast 2025 supply gap.
As global LNG players gather in Barcelona for the big Gastech Conference September 17-20, things look brighter. Yet major challenges lie ahead for the industry, these three among them.
1. Bringing competitive new supply to market
Projects are jockeying for position including Mozambique Areas 1 (Anadarko) and 4 (Eni/ExxonMobil), Arctic LNG 2 (NOVATEK/Total), LNG Canada (Shell/Petronas), Qatar expansions (Qatargas) and a plethora of US sites. 2019 may be the biggest year ever for LNG project sanctions; 100 mmtpa of new capacity could reach FID in the next three years.
Project delivery and managing spend of up to US$200bn will be big tests following the difficulties of the last cycle. And with buyers unwilling to commit to long term contracts for all their needs, sellers have to take on more risk. The ‘new economics’ of LNG projects favours big, financially strong players – large resource holders, major portfolio players and, possibly, traders.
2. The inexorable rise of US supply democratising the LNG market
A fringe player a few years ago, US LNG will vie with Qatar to be the world’s biggest supplier by the mid-2020s. Cheap Permian and Marcellus gas create a competitive advantage versus many conventional projects. Some LNG contracts are already marketed as distinctly Henry Hub, influencing oil-linked LNG pricing. In time a quarter of all cargoes on the high seas will be Henry Hub-derived, FOB with no destination clauses. This will dramatically increase liquidity in LNG trading and the effect on global LNG pricing will be profound.
Gas hubs in the US and Europe have evolved over the decades to accommodate gas/oil competition and arbitrage between spark spreads and dark spreads. So too will Henry Hub be duly absorbed into the global pricing mix in European hubs and Asia. A global LNG marker price will emerge with Henry Hub a key determinant.
3. The need for sustained gas advocacy
Gas is presently winning market share from coal. But intensifying policy on energy efficiency, methane and carbon emissions, the growth of renewables, development of battery storage and new energy technologies all pose a threat. Gas cannot rest on its laurels as a bridging fuel for the energy transition. The industry needs to keep pressing the case for gas as the low carbon intensity option, and continue to build new markets by ensuring security of supply at a competitive cost.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 25 September 18
THE INCONVENIENT TRUTH OF RISING COAL PRICES - FORBES
Coal prices are not supposed to be rising as governments tighten environmental controls but that’s precisely what is happening at the premium ...
Saturday, 22 September 18
SHIPOWNERS URGENTLY NEED A FUEL-MANAGEMENT PLAN - METTE KRONHOLM FRAENDE, BIMCO
With the majority of ship operators expected to choose low-sulphur fuel over scrubbers to comply with the new IMO sulphur cap regulation, all eyes ...
Saturday, 22 September 18
GERMANY'S MOVE TO SCRAP COAL WILL COST TAXPAYERS - BRIAN PARKIN | WILLIAM WILKES
Chancellor Angela Merkel’s plan to close Germany’s remaining coal-fired power stations will drive up subsidies for regions that mine th ...
Saturday, 22 September 18
FITCH RATINGS: WORLD GROWTH FORECAST CUT ON US-CHINA TRADE BATTLE
Protectionist US trade policies have now reached the point where they are materially affecting what remains a strong global growth outlook, with th ...
Tuesday, 18 September 18
COOLING OUTLOOK FOR COAL - KATE JONES
At a time of increasing focus on the renewables market as the world seeks to clean up its act to prevent climate change, what is the outlook like f ...
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Showing 1611 to 1615 news of total 6871 |
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Coal Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
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