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Wednesday, 12 September 18
IS LNG POISED FOR A NEW GROWTH CYCLE? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gas needs to work for its long-term sustainability. But the mood music is upbeat. Just 18 months ago the LNG market was depressed, anticipating an extended period of oversupply. Things haven’t played out quite like that, and prices have staged a strong recovery.
The market may not be out of the woods yet, as supply builds up next year potentially putting some downward pressure on prices. But the outlook beyond is bullish, with 65 mmtpa of new supply needed to meet growing demand by 2025 – that’s 20 mmtpa more than we forecast a year ago.
How have things turned round so quickly?
Demand has been firmer. Low prices drew buyers into the market after Asian LNG prices fell 75% from the 2013 peak of US$17/mmbtu to US$4/mmbtu by 2016. China began a buying spree that hasn’t stopped, spurred by the Government’s initiative to improve air quality in its cities. The Paris Agreement of 2015 has hardened energy policy – European governments are accelerating a shift away from coal to the benefit of renewables as well as gas. A new and diverse breed of countries has joined the traditional LNG buyers, among them Pakistan, Bangladesh, Colombia, Jamaica and Panama. LNG has gone global in the downturn.
Europe emerges as key growth target for LNG suppliers
Delayed production startup at some new LNG projects has also diminished the feared oversupply. Future gas supply in Europe will be structurally reduced by the decline of Groningen. The Dutch field, a pillar of continental supply for over 50 years, is beset by earthquakes. Volumes will be cut to minimal levels in the early 2020s and cease in 2030. With Russian pipelines maxed out, even with modest demand growth Europe has emerged as a key growth target for LNG suppliers. The loss of Groningen alone accounts for half of the 20 mmtpa increase in our forecast 2025 supply gap.
As global LNG players gather in Barcelona for the big Gastech Conference September 17-20, things look brighter. Yet major challenges lie ahead for the industry, these three among them.
1. Bringing competitive new supply to market
Projects are jockeying for position including Mozambique Areas 1 (Anadarko) and 4 (Eni/ExxonMobil), Arctic LNG 2 (NOVATEK/Total), LNG Canada (Shell/Petronas), Qatar expansions (Qatargas) and a plethora of US sites. 2019 may be the biggest year ever for LNG project sanctions; 100 mmtpa of new capacity could reach FID in the next three years.
Project delivery and managing spend of up to US$200bn will be big tests following the difficulties of the last cycle. And with buyers unwilling to commit to long term contracts for all their needs, sellers have to take on more risk. The ‘new economics’ of LNG projects favours big, financially strong players – large resource holders, major portfolio players and, possibly, traders.
2. The inexorable rise of US supply democratising the LNG market
A fringe player a few years ago, US LNG will vie with Qatar to be the world’s biggest supplier by the mid-2020s. Cheap Permian and Marcellus gas create a competitive advantage versus many conventional projects. Some LNG contracts are already marketed as distinctly Henry Hub, influencing oil-linked LNG pricing. In time a quarter of all cargoes on the high seas will be Henry Hub-derived, FOB with no destination clauses. This will dramatically increase liquidity in LNG trading and the effect on global LNG pricing will be profound.
Gas hubs in the US and Europe have evolved over the decades to accommodate gas/oil competition and arbitrage between spark spreads and dark spreads. So too will Henry Hub be duly absorbed into the global pricing mix in European hubs and Asia. A global LNG marker price will emerge with Henry Hub a key determinant.
3. The need for sustained gas advocacy
Gas is presently winning market share from coal. But intensifying policy on energy efficiency, methane and carbon emissions, the growth of renewables, development of battery storage and new energy technologies all pose a threat. Gas cannot rest on its laurels as a bridging fuel for the energy transition. The industry needs to keep pressing the case for gas as the low carbon intensity option, and continue to build new markets by ensuring security of supply at a competitive cost.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Monday, 01 October 18
A NO-DEAL BREXIT WILL UNDOUBTEDLY HAVE CONSEQUENCES FOR IMPORTERS AND EXPORTERS - KATE JONES, THE BALTIC BRIEFING
If you live in the UK, you might be finding it difficult to get away from the Brexit debate. “Hard Brexit”, “soft Brexit”, ...
Friday, 28 September 18
INDONESIA 2018 COAL OUTPUT TARGET NOW AROUND 507 MLN T - ENERGY MINISTRY : REUTERS
Indonesia has increased its 2018 coal production target to around 507 million tonnes from a previous target of 485 million tonnes, the Energy Minis ...
Friday, 28 September 18
FITCH RATINGS: METALLURGICAL COAL MINERS MAY CURB COSTS AS PRICES SLIP
Strong cost inflation in the global metallurgical coal sector suggests that miners may focus on cost controls as prices decline from their current ...
Wednesday, 26 September 18
IS YOUR CHARTER PARTY READY FOR 2020? - METTE KRONHOLM FRAENDE, BIMCO
As the deadline for the IMO’s global low-sulphur fuel requirements fast approaches, it is necessary to carefully check the bunker clauses in ...
Wednesday, 26 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
Despite the fact that the dry bulk SnP market saw an admittedly busy summer season, there is a noticeable slowdown in activity during the past thre ...
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PTC India Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- White Energy Company Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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