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Wednesday, 12 September 18
IS LNG POISED FOR A NEW GROWTH CYCLE? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gas needs to work for its long-term sustainability. But the mood music is upbeat. Just 18 months ago the LNG market was depressed, anticipating an extended period of oversupply. Things haven’t played out quite like that, and prices have staged a strong recovery.
The market may not be out of the woods yet, as supply builds up next year potentially putting some downward pressure on prices. But the outlook beyond is bullish, with 65 mmtpa of new supply needed to meet growing demand by 2025 – that’s 20 mmtpa more than we forecast a year ago.
How have things turned round so quickly?
Demand has been firmer. Low prices drew buyers into the market after Asian LNG prices fell 75% from the 2013 peak of US$17/mmbtu to US$4/mmbtu by 2016. China began a buying spree that hasn’t stopped, spurred by the Government’s initiative to improve air quality in its cities. The Paris Agreement of 2015 has hardened energy policy – European governments are accelerating a shift away from coal to the benefit of renewables as well as gas. A new and diverse breed of countries has joined the traditional LNG buyers, among them Pakistan, Bangladesh, Colombia, Jamaica and Panama. LNG has gone global in the downturn.
Europe emerges as key growth target for LNG suppliers
Delayed production startup at some new LNG projects has also diminished the feared oversupply. Future gas supply in Europe will be structurally reduced by the decline of Groningen. The Dutch field, a pillar of continental supply for over 50 years, is beset by earthquakes. Volumes will be cut to minimal levels in the early 2020s and cease in 2030. With Russian pipelines maxed out, even with modest demand growth Europe has emerged as a key growth target for LNG suppliers. The loss of Groningen alone accounts for half of the 20 mmtpa increase in our forecast 2025 supply gap.
As global LNG players gather in Barcelona for the big Gastech Conference September 17-20, things look brighter. Yet major challenges lie ahead for the industry, these three among them.
1. Bringing competitive new supply to market
Projects are jockeying for position including Mozambique Areas 1 (Anadarko) and 4 (Eni/ExxonMobil), Arctic LNG 2 (NOVATEK/Total), LNG Canada (Shell/Petronas), Qatar expansions (Qatargas) and a plethora of US sites. 2019 may be the biggest year ever for LNG project sanctions; 100 mmtpa of new capacity could reach FID in the next three years.
Project delivery and managing spend of up to US$200bn will be big tests following the difficulties of the last cycle. And with buyers unwilling to commit to long term contracts for all their needs, sellers have to take on more risk. The ‘new economics’ of LNG projects favours big, financially strong players – large resource holders, major portfolio players and, possibly, traders.
2. The inexorable rise of US supply democratising the LNG market
A fringe player a few years ago, US LNG will vie with Qatar to be the world’s biggest supplier by the mid-2020s. Cheap Permian and Marcellus gas create a competitive advantage versus many conventional projects. Some LNG contracts are already marketed as distinctly Henry Hub, influencing oil-linked LNG pricing. In time a quarter of all cargoes on the high seas will be Henry Hub-derived, FOB with no destination clauses. This will dramatically increase liquidity in LNG trading and the effect on global LNG pricing will be profound.
Gas hubs in the US and Europe have evolved over the decades to accommodate gas/oil competition and arbitrage between spark spreads and dark spreads. So too will Henry Hub be duly absorbed into the global pricing mix in European hubs and Asia. A global LNG marker price will emerge with Henry Hub a key determinant.
3. The need for sustained gas advocacy
Gas is presently winning market share from coal. But intensifying policy on energy efficiency, methane and carbon emissions, the growth of renewables, development of battery storage and new energy technologies all pose a threat. Gas cannot rest on its laurels as a bridging fuel for the energy transition. The industry needs to keep pressing the case for gas as the low carbon intensity option, and continue to build new markets by ensuring security of supply at a competitive cost.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 03 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
The bunker fuel supply and availability landscape is close to its transformation with the enforcement of the IMO’s global 0.5% fuel Sulphur c ...
Tuesday, 02 October 18
PANAMAX: A FURTHER RISE ACROSS ALL MAIN ROUTES THIS WEEK - ALLIED
Capesize
Finally an upward recovery was in sight in the spot market the past few days, after the prolonged negative pressure noted the weeks pr ...
Tuesday, 02 October 18
THE PRICE OF OIL CONTINUES ITS CLIMB AMIDST A SERIES OF CONCERNS REGARDING SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
It has been a busy week for oil traders as the price of oil continues its climb amidst a series of concerns regarding supply constraints.
...
Tuesday, 02 October 18
INDONESIA GETS READY TO MEET INCREASED COAL DEMAND FROM CHINA, FREIGHT TO RESPOND - MIKAL BOE
Indonesian coal suppliers have increased their domestic coal production target by 4.5 percent from a previous 485 million tonnes to a massive 507 m ...
Monday, 01 October 18
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000 DWT FIXED DELIVERY FOR A SURABAYA TRIP WITH REDELIVERY TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $13,500 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A stop-start market for the big ships with many expectations and few fulfilled. Holidays curtailed trading early in the week, but the ...
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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