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Wednesday, 12 September 18
IS LNG POISED FOR A NEW GROWTH CYCLE? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gas needs to work for its long-term sustainability. But the mood music is upbeat. Just 18 months ago the LNG market was depressed, anticipating an extended period of oversupply. Things haven’t played out quite like that, and prices have staged a strong recovery.
The market may not be out of the woods yet, as supply builds up next year potentially putting some downward pressure on prices. But the outlook beyond is bullish, with 65 mmtpa of new supply needed to meet growing demand by 2025 – that’s 20 mmtpa more than we forecast a year ago.
How have things turned round so quickly?
Demand has been firmer. Low prices drew buyers into the market after Asian LNG prices fell 75% from the 2013 peak of US$17/mmbtu to US$4/mmbtu by 2016. China began a buying spree that hasn’t stopped, spurred by the Government’s initiative to improve air quality in its cities. The Paris Agreement of 2015 has hardened energy policy – European governments are accelerating a shift away from coal to the benefit of renewables as well as gas. A new and diverse breed of countries has joined the traditional LNG buyers, among them Pakistan, Bangladesh, Colombia, Jamaica and Panama. LNG has gone global in the downturn.
Europe emerges as key growth target for LNG suppliers
Delayed production startup at some new LNG projects has also diminished the feared oversupply. Future gas supply in Europe will be structurally reduced by the decline of Groningen. The Dutch field, a pillar of continental supply for over 50 years, is beset by earthquakes. Volumes will be cut to minimal levels in the early 2020s and cease in 2030. With Russian pipelines maxed out, even with modest demand growth Europe has emerged as a key growth target for LNG suppliers. The loss of Groningen alone accounts for half of the 20 mmtpa increase in our forecast 2025 supply gap.
As global LNG players gather in Barcelona for the big Gastech Conference September 17-20, things look brighter. Yet major challenges lie ahead for the industry, these three among them.
1. Bringing competitive new supply to market
Projects are jockeying for position including Mozambique Areas 1 (Anadarko) and 4 (Eni/ExxonMobil), Arctic LNG 2 (NOVATEK/Total), LNG Canada (Shell/Petronas), Qatar expansions (Qatargas) and a plethora of US sites. 2019 may be the biggest year ever for LNG project sanctions; 100 mmtpa of new capacity could reach FID in the next three years.
Project delivery and managing spend of up to US$200bn will be big tests following the difficulties of the last cycle. And with buyers unwilling to commit to long term contracts for all their needs, sellers have to take on more risk. The ‘new economics’ of LNG projects favours big, financially strong players – large resource holders, major portfolio players and, possibly, traders.
2. The inexorable rise of US supply democratising the LNG market
A fringe player a few years ago, US LNG will vie with Qatar to be the world’s biggest supplier by the mid-2020s. Cheap Permian and Marcellus gas create a competitive advantage versus many conventional projects. Some LNG contracts are already marketed as distinctly Henry Hub, influencing oil-linked LNG pricing. In time a quarter of all cargoes on the high seas will be Henry Hub-derived, FOB with no destination clauses. This will dramatically increase liquidity in LNG trading and the effect on global LNG pricing will be profound.
Gas hubs in the US and Europe have evolved over the decades to accommodate gas/oil competition and arbitrage between spark spreads and dark spreads. So too will Henry Hub be duly absorbed into the global pricing mix in European hubs and Asia. A global LNG marker price will emerge with Henry Hub a key determinant.
3. The need for sustained gas advocacy
Gas is presently winning market share from coal. But intensifying policy on energy efficiency, methane and carbon emissions, the growth of renewables, development of battery storage and new energy technologies all pose a threat. Gas cannot rest on its laurels as a bridging fuel for the energy transition. The industry needs to keep pressing the case for gas as the low carbon intensity option, and continue to build new markets by ensuring security of supply at a competitive cost.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 24 October 18
MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
Looking at 2018 SnP activity, it is evident that Greek, Chinese and North European (German and Norwegian) owners are the top buying nationalities, ...
Wednesday, 24 October 18
CHINESE POWER PLANT STOCKPILES AT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 2015 - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
Chinese power plant coal stockpiles have climbed to approximately 83.3 million tons as of the middle of this month, said Jeffrey Landsberg in his e ...
Tuesday, 23 October 18
WILL THE U.S. COAL DECLINE CONTINUE? - FORBES
What’s Trump’s new coal proposal?
Adding to its controversial plan to leverage federal authority to keep retiring baselo ...
Monday, 22 October 18
CONTINUED HIGH LNG PRICES; TRADE WAR IMPACT LIMITED - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects sustained high spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) and contract prices over the next two quarters on limited investment in LNG e ...
Monday, 22 October 18
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
The oil market in the winter season is generally characterized by demand for diesel, particularly in the northern hemisphere, leaving product marke ...
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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