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Wednesday, 12 September 18
IS LNG POISED FOR A NEW GROWTH CYCLE? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gas needs to work for its long-term sustainability. But the mood music is upbeat. Just 18 months ago the LNG market was depressed, anticipating an extended period of oversupply. Things haven’t played out quite like that, and prices have staged a strong recovery.
The market may not be out of the woods yet, as supply builds up next year potentially putting some downward pressure on prices. But the outlook beyond is bullish, with 65 mmtpa of new supply needed to meet growing demand by 2025 – that’s 20 mmtpa more than we forecast a year ago.
How have things turned round so quickly?
Demand has been firmer. Low prices drew buyers into the market after Asian LNG prices fell 75% from the 2013 peak of US$17/mmbtu to US$4/mmbtu by 2016. China began a buying spree that hasn’t stopped, spurred by the Government’s initiative to improve air quality in its cities. The Paris Agreement of 2015 has hardened energy policy – European governments are accelerating a shift away from coal to the benefit of renewables as well as gas. A new and diverse breed of countries has joined the traditional LNG buyers, among them Pakistan, Bangladesh, Colombia, Jamaica and Panama. LNG has gone global in the downturn.
Europe emerges as key growth target for LNG suppliers
Delayed production startup at some new LNG projects has also diminished the feared oversupply. Future gas supply in Europe will be structurally reduced by the decline of Groningen. The Dutch field, a pillar of continental supply for over 50 years, is beset by earthquakes. Volumes will be cut to minimal levels in the early 2020s and cease in 2030. With Russian pipelines maxed out, even with modest demand growth Europe has emerged as a key growth target for LNG suppliers. The loss of Groningen alone accounts for half of the 20 mmtpa increase in our forecast 2025 supply gap.
As global LNG players gather in Barcelona for the big Gastech Conference September 17-20, things look brighter. Yet major challenges lie ahead for the industry, these three among them.
1. Bringing competitive new supply to market
Projects are jockeying for position including Mozambique Areas 1 (Anadarko) and 4 (Eni/ExxonMobil), Arctic LNG 2 (NOVATEK/Total), LNG Canada (Shell/Petronas), Qatar expansions (Qatargas) and a plethora of US sites. 2019 may be the biggest year ever for LNG project sanctions; 100 mmtpa of new capacity could reach FID in the next three years.
Project delivery and managing spend of up to US$200bn will be big tests following the difficulties of the last cycle. And with buyers unwilling to commit to long term contracts for all their needs, sellers have to take on more risk. The ‘new economics’ of LNG projects favours big, financially strong players – large resource holders, major portfolio players and, possibly, traders.
2. The inexorable rise of US supply democratising the LNG market
A fringe player a few years ago, US LNG will vie with Qatar to be the world’s biggest supplier by the mid-2020s. Cheap Permian and Marcellus gas create a competitive advantage versus many conventional projects. Some LNG contracts are already marketed as distinctly Henry Hub, influencing oil-linked LNG pricing. In time a quarter of all cargoes on the high seas will be Henry Hub-derived, FOB with no destination clauses. This will dramatically increase liquidity in LNG trading and the effect on global LNG pricing will be profound.
Gas hubs in the US and Europe have evolved over the decades to accommodate gas/oil competition and arbitrage between spark spreads and dark spreads. So too will Henry Hub be duly absorbed into the global pricing mix in European hubs and Asia. A global LNG marker price will emerge with Henry Hub a key determinant.
3. The need for sustained gas advocacy
Gas is presently winning market share from coal. But intensifying policy on energy efficiency, methane and carbon emissions, the growth of renewables, development of battery storage and new energy technologies all pose a threat. Gas cannot rest on its laurels as a bridging fuel for the energy transition. The industry needs to keep pressing the case for gas as the low carbon intensity option, and continue to build new markets by ensuring security of supply at a competitive cost.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 02 November 18
COAL FETCHES 102% PREMIUM IN E-AUCTION, SURPASSING THE EARLIER HIGHEST OF 95% - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal prices have received a premium of 102% in spot e-auction during September 2018, surpassing the earlier highest of 95% premium during the spot ...
Friday, 02 November 18
CHINA: COAL CONSUMPTION POSTS STRONG GROWTH ON BACK OF POWER GENERATION DEMAND - CHINA DAILY
China’s energy consumption experienced continuous rebound during the first three quarters in 2018, National Energy Administration announced o ...
Thursday, 01 November 18
IMO 2020 - EXPLORING THE OPTION OF SOX SCRUBBERS - SIDDHARTH MAHAJAN, GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
There are four possible methods of compliance:
1.use VLSFO (very low Sulphur oil) or blends;
2,use dis ...
Wednesday, 31 October 18
INDIA: COAL IMPORTS SURGE ON DOMESTIC SHORT SUPPLY - HINDU
Shortage of thermal coal supply in India has pushed imports up to 85 million tonnes (mt) in the first half of the current fiscal compared to 75 mt ...
Wednesday, 31 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - APOSTOLOS ROMPOPOULOS
Since the IMO’s 2020 global cap on sulphur in marine fuels is coming into force, ship-owners have to decide whether they will operate using e ...
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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