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Wednesday, 12 September 18
IS LNG POISED FOR A NEW GROWTH CYCLE? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gas needs to work for its long-term sustainability. But the mood music is upbeat. Just 18 months ago the LNG market was depressed, anticipating an extended period of oversupply. Things haven’t played out quite like that, and prices have staged a strong recovery.
The market may not be out of the woods yet, as supply builds up next year potentially putting some downward pressure on prices. But the outlook beyond is bullish, with 65 mmtpa of new supply needed to meet growing demand by 2025 – that’s 20 mmtpa more than we forecast a year ago.
How have things turned round so quickly?
Demand has been firmer. Low prices drew buyers into the market after Asian LNG prices fell 75% from the 2013 peak of US$17/mmbtu to US$4/mmbtu by 2016. China began a buying spree that hasn’t stopped, spurred by the Government’s initiative to improve air quality in its cities. The Paris Agreement of 2015 has hardened energy policy – European governments are accelerating a shift away from coal to the benefit of renewables as well as gas. A new and diverse breed of countries has joined the traditional LNG buyers, among them Pakistan, Bangladesh, Colombia, Jamaica and Panama. LNG has gone global in the downturn.
Europe emerges as key growth target for LNG suppliers
Delayed production startup at some new LNG projects has also diminished the feared oversupply. Future gas supply in Europe will be structurally reduced by the decline of Groningen. The Dutch field, a pillar of continental supply for over 50 years, is beset by earthquakes. Volumes will be cut to minimal levels in the early 2020s and cease in 2030. With Russian pipelines maxed out, even with modest demand growth Europe has emerged as a key growth target for LNG suppliers. The loss of Groningen alone accounts for half of the 20 mmtpa increase in our forecast 2025 supply gap.
As global LNG players gather in Barcelona for the big Gastech Conference September 17-20, things look brighter. Yet major challenges lie ahead for the industry, these three among them.
1. Bringing competitive new supply to market
Projects are jockeying for position including Mozambique Areas 1 (Anadarko) and 4 (Eni/ExxonMobil), Arctic LNG 2 (NOVATEK/Total), LNG Canada (Shell/Petronas), Qatar expansions (Qatargas) and a plethora of US sites. 2019 may be the biggest year ever for LNG project sanctions; 100 mmtpa of new capacity could reach FID in the next three years.
Project delivery and managing spend of up to US$200bn will be big tests following the difficulties of the last cycle. And with buyers unwilling to commit to long term contracts for all their needs, sellers have to take on more risk. The ‘new economics’ of LNG projects favours big, financially strong players – large resource holders, major portfolio players and, possibly, traders.
2. The inexorable rise of US supply democratising the LNG market
A fringe player a few years ago, US LNG will vie with Qatar to be the world’s biggest supplier by the mid-2020s. Cheap Permian and Marcellus gas create a competitive advantage versus many conventional projects. Some LNG contracts are already marketed as distinctly Henry Hub, influencing oil-linked LNG pricing. In time a quarter of all cargoes on the high seas will be Henry Hub-derived, FOB with no destination clauses. This will dramatically increase liquidity in LNG trading and the effect on global LNG pricing will be profound.
Gas hubs in the US and Europe have evolved over the decades to accommodate gas/oil competition and arbitrage between spark spreads and dark spreads. So too will Henry Hub be duly absorbed into the global pricing mix in European hubs and Asia. A global LNG marker price will emerge with Henry Hub a key determinant.
3. The need for sustained gas advocacy
Gas is presently winning market share from coal. But intensifying policy on energy efficiency, methane and carbon emissions, the growth of renewables, development of battery storage and new energy technologies all pose a threat. Gas cannot rest on its laurels as a bridging fuel for the energy transition. The industry needs to keep pressing the case for gas as the low carbon intensity option, and continue to build new markets by ensuring security of supply at a competitive cost.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Monday, 29 October 18
IMPLEMENTATION OF SULPHUR 2020 LIMIT - CARRIAGE BAN ADOPTED - IMO
An amendment to support consistent implementation of the forthcoming 0.50% limit on sulphur in ships fuel oil was adopted by the International Mari ...
Monday, 29 October 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN AREA SAW FALLING RATES, WITH A 61,000DWT FIXING DELIVERY KOHSICHANG TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY INDIA, AT $10,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A market of two halves for most of the week with rates in the Atlantic firming and easing in the East for most of the week, but then, ...
Friday, 26 October 18
SHIP OPERATING COSTS EXPECTED TO RISE IN 2018 AND 2019 - MOORE STEPHENS
Total vessel operating costs in the shipping industry are expected to rise by 2.7% in 2018 and by 3.1% in 2019, according to our latest survey.
...
Friday, 26 October 18
SEVERAL CONTRACTIONS IN GLOBAL STEEL PRODUCTION - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
World Steel Association data released today shows that global crude steel production totaled approximately 151.7 million tons in September. T ...
Thursday, 25 October 18
WHAT DOES THE "IMO 2020" REGULATION REALLY SAY? A QUICK GUIDE - BIMCO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The shipping industry has all eyes firmly fixed on the topic, but what exactly do the “IMO 2020” global sulph ...
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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