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Wednesday, 30 May 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - ILIAS M. LALAOUNIS
 Among several hot topics that will be discussed during the Posidonia week, the International Maritime Organization regulation that will be enforced on Jan 2020 and calls for ships to reduce the maximum sulphur content of their fuels to 0.5 percent, will definitely be on the spotlight. The fuel discussion becomes even more interesting following the recent oil rally that drove global benchmark Brent to the highest level late 2014, near 80usd last week before settling back to around 75usd. According to Morgan Stanley’s latest report, besides key fundamentals and political externalities, oil prices will be severely impacted as new international shipping regulations takes effect, overhauling the types of fuels produced by refiners, and will push Brent crude reaching $90 a barrel by 2020. An increase in demand of low sulphur fuels will hike demand of middle distillate products (diesel and marine gasoil), that will result a significant need for more crude; this will drive crack spreads higher and will boost oil prices. Consequently, several hybrid fuels (Ultra low sulphur Fuel oils) will be marketed by refineries and traders; however they have several red flags (compatibility issues among others). Hence, it seems very unlikely that refiners, traders and bunker suppliers will manage to market a "one spec fits all" low sulphur fuel oil product. This will create an oversupply of high sulphur fuel oil that is expected to put pressure on refineries to produce more distillate fuels.
Data from the report suggests that middle distillate markets are already pretty tight in matters of supply; i.e. diesel and gasoil stockpiles in key storage hubs in Europe, the U.S. and Asia are currently below their 5-yr seasonal averages. At the same time, demand for these distillates is growing annually by 600k barrels/day since 2011, accelerating to 800,000 barrels/day in recent quarters. According to recent studies, the IMO regulation is expected to boost demand by an additional 1.5 million barrels/day by 2020, which should boost crude prices. While global crude production will most likely rise, it probably won’t increase by the 5.7 million barrels/day needed by 2020 to meet the additional demand for fuels. Since current fundamentals as well as the IMO regulation impact point to higher bunker prices, speed & consumptions of ships are once again on the spotlight. Consequently, the instalment (or not) of scrubbers is already a big debate among owners and charterers. If the above analysis is proven correct, and a sudden increase in demand of middle distillates is combined with tight distillate product supply as well as high crude oil prices and an oversupply of high sulphur fuel oil, then the price differential between low sulphur marine gasoil and high sulphur fuel oil will be definitely significant. The question is how long will a large price gap exist for and if it will suffice for the payback of the initial investment cost to install a scrubber. In other words, will this price differential incentivize refiners to invest in high cost cocker installations and upgrade their current infrastructure and how long will this process take.
Amid the high cost of bunkers post 2020, charterers will most likely request owners to slow steam; whereas ships with scrubbers will enjoy the flexibility and maximize ton-mile revenue. Similarly, if the majority of the fleet is slow steaming, and in combination with a possible increase of scrapping tonnage that can’t adapt on the new environmental regulations, we see less vessels competing over cargos; that will probably drive the market upwards. All in all, although the advantages of installing scrubbers especially on thirsty ships are clear, we see only a few owners and newbuilding orders that include scrubbers on board, with the vast majority of orders being “scrubber ready”. Our feeling is that due to current market condition, most owners adopt a “wait and see approach” and currently hold their horses.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 18 May 18
INDONESIA'S SAMARINDA ANCHORAGE COAL LOADING ACTIVITIES WERE RESUMED YESTERDAY AT 4PM LOCAL TIME
Samarinda Anchorage coal loading activities were resumed yesterday at 4PM local time.
Local fishermen in Samarinda Anchorage have been demonst ...
Wednesday, 16 May 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
Half-way through the second quarter of the year and as the Posidonia week approaches everyone is getting ready for this unique gathering that besid ...
Thursday, 10 May 18
PRIVATE POWER PRODUCERS NEED A 'POWERFUL PUSH' - PRADEEP MITTAL
- PLF of the Private Sector in the country (Coal and Lignite based) for FY 2017-18 (till Dec 2017) is 56%.
- 51 GW of stressed assets (Thermal &a ...
Tuesday, 08 May 18
BUMA SIGNED OVER US$1 BILLION WORTH OF NEW CONTRACT WITH PT INDONESIA PRATAMA
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama, has entered into mining services contracts with PT Indones ...
Monday, 07 May 18
BENCHMARK PRICE OF INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL DROPPED BACK BELOW $90 A TON THIS MONTH
COALspot.com: According to latest ministerial decree No. 1812 K/30/MEM/2018 dated 3 May 2018, the Indonesian Coal Price Reference (HBA) decline 5.5 ...
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Showing 1721 to 1725 news of total 6871 |
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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