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Wednesday, 30 May 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - ILIAS M. LALAOUNIS
 Among several hot topics that will be discussed during the Posidonia week, the International Maritime Organization regulation that will be enforced on Jan 2020 and calls for ships to reduce the maximum sulphur content of their fuels to 0.5 percent, will definitely be on the spotlight. The fuel discussion becomes even more interesting following the recent oil rally that drove global benchmark Brent to the highest level late 2014, near 80usd last week before settling back to around 75usd. According to Morgan Stanley’s latest report, besides key fundamentals and political externalities, oil prices will be severely impacted as new international shipping regulations takes effect, overhauling the types of fuels produced by refiners, and will push Brent crude reaching $90 a barrel by 2020. An increase in demand of low sulphur fuels will hike demand of middle distillate products (diesel and marine gasoil), that will result a significant need for more crude; this will drive crack spreads higher and will boost oil prices. Consequently, several hybrid fuels (Ultra low sulphur Fuel oils) will be marketed by refineries and traders; however they have several red flags (compatibility issues among others). Hence, it seems very unlikely that refiners, traders and bunker suppliers will manage to market a "one spec fits all" low sulphur fuel oil product. This will create an oversupply of high sulphur fuel oil that is expected to put pressure on refineries to produce more distillate fuels.
Data from the report suggests that middle distillate markets are already pretty tight in matters of supply; i.e. diesel and gasoil stockpiles in key storage hubs in Europe, the U.S. and Asia are currently below their 5-yr seasonal averages. At the same time, demand for these distillates is growing annually by 600k barrels/day since 2011, accelerating to 800,000 barrels/day in recent quarters. According to recent studies, the IMO regulation is expected to boost demand by an additional 1.5 million barrels/day by 2020, which should boost crude prices. While global crude production will most likely rise, it probably won’t increase by the 5.7 million barrels/day needed by 2020 to meet the additional demand for fuels. Since current fundamentals as well as the IMO regulation impact point to higher bunker prices, speed & consumptions of ships are once again on the spotlight. Consequently, the instalment (or not) of scrubbers is already a big debate among owners and charterers. If the above analysis is proven correct, and a sudden increase in demand of middle distillates is combined with tight distillate product supply as well as high crude oil prices and an oversupply of high sulphur fuel oil, then the price differential between low sulphur marine gasoil and high sulphur fuel oil will be definitely significant. The question is how long will a large price gap exist for and if it will suffice for the payback of the initial investment cost to install a scrubber. In other words, will this price differential incentivize refiners to invest in high cost cocker installations and upgrade their current infrastructure and how long will this process take.
Amid the high cost of bunkers post 2020, charterers will most likely request owners to slow steam; whereas ships with scrubbers will enjoy the flexibility and maximize ton-mile revenue. Similarly, if the majority of the fleet is slow steaming, and in combination with a possible increase of scrapping tonnage that can’t adapt on the new environmental regulations, we see less vessels competing over cargos; that will probably drive the market upwards. All in all, although the advantages of installing scrubbers especially on thirsty ships are clear, we see only a few owners and newbuilding orders that include scrubbers on board, with the vast majority of orders being “scrubber ready”. Our feeling is that due to current market condition, most owners adopt a “wait and see approach” and currently hold their horses.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 01 May 18
GLOBAL MINER PEABODY EYES SALES OPPORTUNITY IN INDIA’S RISING COAL IMPORTS - BUSINESS STANDARD
Indian imports of coal will continue to rise, reckons the world’s largest private sector coal miner Peabody Energy. Glenn Kellow, president a ...
Saturday, 28 April 18
STRONG ASIAN DEMAND CONTINUES TO HOLD UP THERMAL COAL MARKETS - REUTERS
Asian thermal coal demand is defying its typical seasonal slowdown as well as the expanding use of renewables and natural gas, with prices holding ...
Friday, 27 April 18
PEABODY ENERGY'S REVENUES FOR THE FIRST QUARTER ROSE 10 PERCENT OVER THE PRIOR YEAR TO $1.46 BILLION
Peabody Energy's revenues for the first quarter rose 10 percent over the prior year to $1.46 billion driven by improved seaborne coal pricing a ...
Thursday, 26 April 18
BALTIC EXCHANGE LAUNCHES ESCROW SERVICE FOR VESSEL SALES
The Baltic Exchange will be launching an Escrow Service for its members to hold deposits for ship sale transactions. The move will allow Baltic Exc ...
Thursday, 26 April 18
COAL PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE $85/MT IN 2018, DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM 2017 - WORLD BANK
Coal prices rose 4 percent in the first quarter (q/q), following a surge of 34 percent in 2017, mainly due to strong consumption in China spurred b ...
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Showing 1731 to 1735 news of total 6871 |
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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