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Wednesday, 30 May 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - ILIAS M. LALAOUNIS
 Among several hot topics that will be discussed during the Posidonia week, the International Maritime Organization regulation that will be enforced on Jan 2020 and calls for ships to reduce the maximum sulphur content of their fuels to 0.5 percent, will definitely be on the spotlight. The fuel discussion becomes even more interesting following the recent oil rally that drove global benchmark Brent to the highest level late 2014, near 80usd last week before settling back to around 75usd. According to Morgan Stanley’s latest report, besides key fundamentals and political externalities, oil prices will be severely impacted as new international shipping regulations takes effect, overhauling the types of fuels produced by refiners, and will push Brent crude reaching $90 a barrel by 2020. An increase in demand of low sulphur fuels will hike demand of middle distillate products (diesel and marine gasoil), that will result a significant need for more crude; this will drive crack spreads higher and will boost oil prices. Consequently, several hybrid fuels (Ultra low sulphur Fuel oils) will be marketed by refineries and traders; however they have several red flags (compatibility issues among others). Hence, it seems very unlikely that refiners, traders and bunker suppliers will manage to market a "one spec fits all" low sulphur fuel oil product. This will create an oversupply of high sulphur fuel oil that is expected to put pressure on refineries to produce more distillate fuels.
Data from the report suggests that middle distillate markets are already pretty tight in matters of supply; i.e. diesel and gasoil stockpiles in key storage hubs in Europe, the U.S. and Asia are currently below their 5-yr seasonal averages. At the same time, demand for these distillates is growing annually by 600k barrels/day since 2011, accelerating to 800,000 barrels/day in recent quarters. According to recent studies, the IMO regulation is expected to boost demand by an additional 1.5 million barrels/day by 2020, which should boost crude prices. While global crude production will most likely rise, it probably won’t increase by the 5.7 million barrels/day needed by 2020 to meet the additional demand for fuels. Since current fundamentals as well as the IMO regulation impact point to higher bunker prices, speed & consumptions of ships are once again on the spotlight. Consequently, the instalment (or not) of scrubbers is already a big debate among owners and charterers. If the above analysis is proven correct, and a sudden increase in demand of middle distillates is combined with tight distillate product supply as well as high crude oil prices and an oversupply of high sulphur fuel oil, then the price differential between low sulphur marine gasoil and high sulphur fuel oil will be definitely significant. The question is how long will a large price gap exist for and if it will suffice for the payback of the initial investment cost to install a scrubber. In other words, will this price differential incentivize refiners to invest in high cost cocker installations and upgrade their current infrastructure and how long will this process take.
Amid the high cost of bunkers post 2020, charterers will most likely request owners to slow steam; whereas ships with scrubbers will enjoy the flexibility and maximize ton-mile revenue. Similarly, if the majority of the fleet is slow steaming, and in combination with a possible increase of scrapping tonnage that can’t adapt on the new environmental regulations, we see less vessels competing over cargos; that will probably drive the market upwards. All in all, although the advantages of installing scrubbers especially on thirsty ships are clear, we see only a few owners and newbuilding orders that include scrubbers on board, with the vast majority of orders being “scrubber ready”. Our feeling is that due to current market condition, most owners adopt a “wait and see approach” and currently hold their horses.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 24 May 18
SUPRAS FIXING AROUND USD 15000 FOR INDO TO CHINA COAL TRIPS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Both the physical and the paper market have dropped sharply the last couple of days on the back of a lack of fresh cargoes and a growing ...
Thursday, 24 May 18
FITCH: FALLING COAL INVESTMENT TO SUPPORT ASIAN PRICES
Press Release: The long-term outlook for the Asian thermal coal prices is improving, amid rising regional demand and falling mining investment, whi ...
Thursday, 24 May 18
BEIJING ORDERS UTILITIES, MINERS TO HELP COOL RED-HOT COAL MARKET: SOURCES - REUTERS
China’s state planner ordered utilities this week to stop stockpiling thermal coal and told miners to slash prices, two sources familiar with ...
Wednesday, 23 May 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
In the last six months we have seen more than 110 reported tanker transactions involving tonnage larger than 32k dwt and younger than 18 years old. ...
Friday, 18 May 18
AFTER COAL, INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT PUSHES DMO ON GAS FOR ELECTRICITY
After introducing its domestic market obligation (DMO) policy for coal on March 12, the government is going forward with its plan to introduce a DM ...
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Showing 1716 to 1720 news of total 6871 |
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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