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Wednesday, 25 April 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - THEODOROS NTALAKOS
 We had the opportunity to be part of Intertanko's Hellenic Mediterranean Panel last week in the SNFCC and to present an outlook on the tanker fleet development and future outlook. So in this column, we will just outline a few points delivered during the presentation.
On the crude sector, a very anemic supply growth in 2014 helped the market enjoy a very good year in 2015 as the demand for crude carriers surpassed the fleet growth. Consequentially, the improved market led to renewed appetite for new buildings and the orders peaked in 2015. The ships ordered then were for delivery in 2016-2018, so, as demolition bottomed in 2015 and 2016, during those years the fleet grew at levels of five to six percent. Such increased tanker supply has not been matched by the respective demand, so the earnings have remained suppressed. Nevertheless, demolition – supported also by upcoming regulations, is peaking to unprecedented levels at least since 2012 leading to marginal fleet growth despite deliveries. Furthermore, and whilst the average age of the tankers being sold for scrap is around 19years old and only one percent of the crude fleet is over 20years old, eleven percent of the current fleet will be over 20years old by 2020 meaning there are still good grounds for demolition to continue.
The product market looks even more promising. The current orderbook is marginally at ten percent of the fleet and the average age of ships being scrapped is around 22 years. Furthermore, six percent of the product tanker fleet is still over 20 years old and by 2020 ten percent of the fleet will be over 20 years old. The fleet grew sharply in 2013 and 2015 but for the last three years the growth is subdued. In a very plausible scenario for 2018, demand growth is expected to surpass supply growth for the first time since 2015.
What is interesting is that the correlation between earnings and contracting turned negative in 2017. Few but wise and counter-cyclical investors find the stomach to order tanker new buildings when the market is deteriorating. One reason is the attractive prices in all tanker sub-segments; VLCCs at or below $80m, Aframax tankers hovering just over 40 million and MR Tankers in the very low 30s were well below their historical average making them very attractive. The lack of orders during 2016 led the shipbuilders to reduce their pricing and the poor market helped the buyers squeeze them further to the lowest possible contract prices. Pricing, combined with compliance to the upcoming regulations made the new buildings more attractive solutions for a shipowner who wanted to renew or expand his fleet.
Is a shipowner prepared to pay more for a tanker today than six months ago? Definitely NO for an older vessel and marginally YES for a modern ship. Should one be worried about today's tanker orderbook? Yes one should, but one should also keep the fact that the tonnage that can possibly exit the market the next few years is very close to today's orderbook. Have a good one.
lack of activity in the region. Moreover China’s recently imposed 25% tariff on US soybean imports could generate a growth in demand for regional palm oil, as CPO can be used as an alternative in certain circumstances.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 05 June 18
SOUTH KOREA'S SULPHUR CAP ALTERS ASIAN COAL MARKET DYNAMICS: RUSSELL
South Korea’s imposition of a strict sulphur cap on its imported coal is likely to cause ripples across Asia’s markets for the pollutin ...
Tuesday, 05 June 18
THINGS STILL LOOK TO BE PROMISING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Just as we thought the world was calming back down to reason, worries and frictions regarding global trade resurfaced this past week after a series ...
Tuesday, 05 June 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE IS GOING UP AGAIN
COALspot.com: According to latest ministerial decree No. 1857 K/30/MEM/2018 dated 4 June 2018, the Indonesian Coal Price Reference (HBA) up 7.91 pe ...
Saturday, 02 June 18
HOW CARBON UTILISATION WILL BE A KEY STEP IN INDIA'S CLIMATE STRATEGY - BENJAMIN SPORTON
For India, energy remains the key driver of growth, not only from an economic perspective but more importantly for accelerating social development. ...
Thursday, 31 May 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO/CHINA COAL RV IS GETTING FIXED AROUND $13K DELIVERY SINGAPORE - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The Cape market has been on a downward trend for the past week.
According to Fearnleys, Oslo based broker, Brazil market ...
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Showing 1706 to 1710 news of total 6871 |
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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