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Thursday, 12 April 18
SHIPPING CAN MANAGE US-CHINA TARIFFS, BUT RISKS RISING - FITCH
 Container and, to some extent, dry bulk would probably be the shipping segments most affected by the recently announced US and China tariffs, Fitch Ratings says. However, the degree of impact will depend on the final terms of the tariffs, and the potential flexibility of shipping companies to divert some volumes to other destinations and the ultimate tonne-mile demand. A more pronounced and wider sector impact potentially affecting all shipping segments could result if the planned tariffs lead to escalating retaliatory protectionist measures.
The US recently announced potential tariffs on steel and aluminium imports. Subsequently, it proposed an additional duty of 25% on certain products imported from China, including medicaments, machinery and chemicals, with a total value of about USD50 billion. In response, China proposed a 25% tariff on a range of imported products from the US including soybeans, chemicals and selected aircraft.
The immediate impact of potential tariffs may be manageable for both container and dry-bulk shipping. Some of the goods under the proposed tariffs are likely to continue to be imported by the US or China due to the limited substitutes. Some of the volumes could be diverted to other countries, potentially affecting distances travelled and putting tonne-mile demand in focus. The proposed value of about USD50 billion of goods subject to tariffs accounts for only about 10% of US imports from China and slightly over 2% of China’s total merchandise exports. In addition, soybeans and steel represent a limited share of the dry-bulk shipping market.
The direct impact on the companies will also depend on their exposure to trans-Pacific trades. Container shipping companies are global and tend to be diversified by trading lanes. The top five companies, including Maersk Line, Hapag-Lloyd and COSCO, have manageable exposure to US-Asia trades. However, smaller ones, mostly Asian container shipping companies, including Yang Ming, Evergreen and OOIL, have large exposure to trans-Pacific trades of around 40%.
The key risk to shipping is if protectionist measures escalate into a trade war damaging the prospects for global trade and GDP growth. Global trade growth is an important stimulator of demand in container shipping, while China remains the key driver for dry-bulk commodity imports and trade.
We believe the supply side is key to achieving the supply-demand balance and a long-term sustainable recovery in the sector, but further slowdown in volume growth in the short term may put further pressure on freight rates. Volume growth has moderated for both container and dry-bulk shipping in recent years. This again emphasises the necessity of prudent capacity management in the sector, which has been plagued by overcapacity.
The IMF expects global trade growth to reach 4.6% in 2018. This should support container transport volumes growth of over 4.5% in 2018. However, supply growth has increased since 2016 and is likely to accelerate to over 5.5% in 2018, again exceeding demand growth. We expect supply-demand fundamentals to be better in dry bulk, with a moderate expected increase in dry-bulk volumes of 2.7% in 2018 coupled with low vessel supply growth at 1.2%, which should provide support for dry bulk freight rates.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 30 March 18
SHIPPING INDUSTRY CONFIDENCE HITS FOUR-YEAR HIGH - MOORE STEPHENS
Shipping Confidence Survey
In February 2018, the average confidence level expressed by respondents was up from 6.2 in November 2017 t ...
Friday, 30 March 18
EXPLAINING POLAND'S COAL PARADOX - FORBES
In the U.S. coal is succumbing to market forces despite the Trump Administration’s push to support the industry. Abundant, cheap and cleaner ...
Friday, 30 March 18
THIESS SECURES $140M MT OWEN INCREASE
Thiess has secured a A$140 million increase to its contract with Glencore for coal mining services at Mt Owen in the Hunter Valley, Australia. Mt O ...
Wednesday, 28 March 18
THIESS WINS $280M WAHANA EXTENSION
Thiess has been awarded a three-year $280 million contract extension at the Wahana coal mine in South Kalimantan, Indonesia.
According to Thie ...
Wednesday, 28 March 18
RIO TINTO TO SELL KESTREL MINE FOR $2.25 BILLION - REUTERS
Rio Tinto sold its remaining coal asset Kestrel in Australia to private equity manager EMR Capital and Indonesia’s Adaro Energy Tbk for $2.25 ...
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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