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Thursday, 12 April 18
SHIPPING CAN MANAGE US-CHINA TARIFFS, BUT RISKS RISING - FITCH
 Container and, to some extent, dry bulk would probably be the shipping segments most affected by the recently announced US and China tariffs, Fitch Ratings says. However, the degree of impact will depend on the final terms of the tariffs, and the potential flexibility of shipping companies to divert some volumes to other destinations and the ultimate tonne-mile demand. A more pronounced and wider sector impact potentially affecting all shipping segments could result if the planned tariffs lead to escalating retaliatory protectionist measures.
The US recently announced potential tariffs on steel and aluminium imports. Subsequently, it proposed an additional duty of 25% on certain products imported from China, including medicaments, machinery and chemicals, with a total value of about USD50 billion. In response, China proposed a 25% tariff on a range of imported products from the US including soybeans, chemicals and selected aircraft.
The immediate impact of potential tariffs may be manageable for both container and dry-bulk shipping. Some of the goods under the proposed tariffs are likely to continue to be imported by the US or China due to the limited substitutes. Some of the volumes could be diverted to other countries, potentially affecting distances travelled and putting tonne-mile demand in focus. The proposed value of about USD50 billion of goods subject to tariffs accounts for only about 10% of US imports from China and slightly over 2% of China’s total merchandise exports. In addition, soybeans and steel represent a limited share of the dry-bulk shipping market.
The direct impact on the companies will also depend on their exposure to trans-Pacific trades. Container shipping companies are global and tend to be diversified by trading lanes. The top five companies, including Maersk Line, Hapag-Lloyd and COSCO, have manageable exposure to US-Asia trades. However, smaller ones, mostly Asian container shipping companies, including Yang Ming, Evergreen and OOIL, have large exposure to trans-Pacific trades of around 40%.
The key risk to shipping is if protectionist measures escalate into a trade war damaging the prospects for global trade and GDP growth. Global trade growth is an important stimulator of demand in container shipping, while China remains the key driver for dry-bulk commodity imports and trade.
We believe the supply side is key to achieving the supply-demand balance and a long-term sustainable recovery in the sector, but further slowdown in volume growth in the short term may put further pressure on freight rates. Volume growth has moderated for both container and dry-bulk shipping in recent years. This again emphasises the necessity of prudent capacity management in the sector, which has been plagued by overcapacity.
The IMF expects global trade growth to reach 4.6% in 2018. This should support container transport volumes growth of over 4.5% in 2018. However, supply growth has increased since 2016 and is likely to accelerate to over 5.5% in 2018, again exceeding demand growth. We expect supply-demand fundamentals to be better in dry bulk, with a moderate expected increase in dry-bulk volumes of 2.7% in 2018 coupled with low vessel supply growth at 1.2%, which should provide support for dry bulk freight rates.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 27 March 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - GERRY LATHROP
With the almost complete phase out of Tier II new-building slots on our door step, along with the plethora of emissions related articles seemingly ...
Friday, 23 March 18
RIO TINTO AGREES SALE OF HAIL CREEK AND VALERIA TO GLENCORE FOR $1.7 BILLION
Press Release: Rio Tinto has entered into a binding agreement with Glencore for the sale of its entire interests in the Hail Creek coal mine and th ...
Wednesday, 21 March 18
CHINA'S RAW COAL OUTPUT UP IN 2017, FIRST GROWTH SINCE 2014 - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output rose in 2017 due to rebounding demand and high-quality capacity, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) ...
Wednesday, 21 March 18
MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER T. WHITTY
President’s Trump administration proposed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports in an attempt to target China and Europe among others. Earlie ...
Tuesday, 20 March 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
It has been a chilling start to the week for the global economy, with the vast majority of stock exchanges noting a fair drop, after a series of se ...
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Planning Commission, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
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