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Thursday, 12 April 18
SHIPPING CAN MANAGE US-CHINA TARIFFS, BUT RISKS RISING - FITCH
 Container and, to some extent, dry bulk would probably be the shipping segments most affected by the recently announced US and China tariffs, Fitch Ratings says. However, the degree of impact will depend on the final terms of the tariffs, and the potential flexibility of shipping companies to divert some volumes to other destinations and the ultimate tonne-mile demand. A more pronounced and wider sector impact potentially affecting all shipping segments could result if the planned tariffs lead to escalating retaliatory protectionist measures.
The US recently announced potential tariffs on steel and aluminium imports. Subsequently, it proposed an additional duty of 25% on certain products imported from China, including medicaments, machinery and chemicals, with a total value of about USD50 billion. In response, China proposed a 25% tariff on a range of imported products from the US including soybeans, chemicals and selected aircraft.
The immediate impact of potential tariffs may be manageable for both container and dry-bulk shipping. Some of the goods under the proposed tariffs are likely to continue to be imported by the US or China due to the limited substitutes. Some of the volumes could be diverted to other countries, potentially affecting distances travelled and putting tonne-mile demand in focus. The proposed value of about USD50 billion of goods subject to tariffs accounts for only about 10% of US imports from China and slightly over 2% of China’s total merchandise exports. In addition, soybeans and steel represent a limited share of the dry-bulk shipping market.
The direct impact on the companies will also depend on their exposure to trans-Pacific trades. Container shipping companies are global and tend to be diversified by trading lanes. The top five companies, including Maersk Line, Hapag-Lloyd and COSCO, have manageable exposure to US-Asia trades. However, smaller ones, mostly Asian container shipping companies, including Yang Ming, Evergreen and OOIL, have large exposure to trans-Pacific trades of around 40%.
The key risk to shipping is if protectionist measures escalate into a trade war damaging the prospects for global trade and GDP growth. Global trade growth is an important stimulator of demand in container shipping, while China remains the key driver for dry-bulk commodity imports and trade.
We believe the supply side is key to achieving the supply-demand balance and a long-term sustainable recovery in the sector, but further slowdown in volume growth in the short term may put further pressure on freight rates. Volume growth has moderated for both container and dry-bulk shipping in recent years. This again emphasises the necessity of prudent capacity management in the sector, which has been plagued by overcapacity.
The IMF expects global trade growth to reach 4.6% in 2018. This should support container transport volumes growth of over 4.5% in 2018. However, supply growth has increased since 2016 and is likely to accelerate to over 5.5% in 2018, again exceeding demand growth. We expect supply-demand fundamentals to be better in dry bulk, with a moderate expected increase in dry-bulk volumes of 2.7% in 2018 coupled with low vessel supply growth at 1.2%, which should provide support for dry bulk freight rates.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 11 April 18
CHINA UTILITIES PLAN NEW COAL IMPORT PRICE INDEX TO CURB VOLATILITY - REUTERS
China’s major utilities are preparing to launch their own coal price index for imports, an official at China Huaneng Group said, in a move th ...
Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most li ...
Tuesday, 10 April 18
BUMA GRANTED ADDITIONAL LOAN FACILITY FROM BTMU TO SUPPORT GROWTH
Press Release: PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. is pleased to announce that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA"), signed an a ...
Monday, 09 April 18
APRIL INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE DROPS TO LOWEST IN 2018
COALspot.com: According to latest ministerial decree, the Indonesian Coal Price Reference (HBA) decline 6.98 per cent in April 2018 compared to Mar ...
Friday, 06 April 18
TOP MINER BHP QUITS WORLD COAL ASSOCIATION OVER CLIMATE CLASH - BLOOMBERG
BHP Billiton Ltd. has severed ties with the World Coal Association over a clash of views on how to combat climate change, with the mining giant say ...
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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