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Wednesday, 28 February 18
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 US Shale production continues to grow rapidly, hitting new records and with projections being revised upwardly at every turn. According to the International Energy Agency, the US will overtake Russia as the world’s #1 crude oil producer by next year, having surpassed 10m bpd in late 2017 and slated to surpass 11m bpd by the end of 2018.
Over the past two years US shale oil companies have managed to become more efficient, optimizing production processes and utilizing new technologies and practices at lower costs. This is attributed in part to technological breakthroughs on the drilling side; Break-even points for US production have been driven substantially downward. It remains to be seen if this increase will be sustainable but at this point most pundits do not see production peaking before 2020.
The booming production has of course unnerved other producers and oil markets globally and comes at a time when other producers have voluntarily capped their own production in order to prop up prices. During 2017, we witnessed the spike in prices due to OPEC production cuts with prices steadily correcting upwards since November 2016. Oil is currently trading in the low $60s, after peaking at a 3-year high of ~$66pb.
OPEC and its allied producers are seeing their market shares eroded by the increasing US production. At the same time, US oil imports are also dropping, further shrinking profits from OPEC established markets. With this in mind, it will be very interesting to see how the commodity price will fare under these new conditions.
US shale production will be extremely important to watch over the next 5 years. It is almost certain that production will continue to grow in the next years. However, a number of factors will determine if this growth will be sustainable long term and how the market will balance itself under a future -potentially different- status quo.
On the tanker side a growing US production is good news as exports from the country could be offering more and more support to rates in the future as apart from Europe and Latin America, the long haul trips to the Far East and particularly to China is gaining increasing momentum. Thomson Reuters data reveals that US shipments specifically to China that were non-existent prior to 2016 have now reached a new record of around 2.01 million metric tonnes or 474,450 barrels/day during last month. Sinopec, the biggest oil refiner in China, expects to import 10 million metric tonnes of crude oil from the US during 2018. As the production cap from OPEC and Russia continues, the fairly new and quickly increasing flow of the commodity from the US to S. Korea, Japan and China is definitely something to watch out for.
Additionally as a growing US production will almost certainly keep undermining OPECs efforts to boost oil prices, this means that the price of the commodity will keep moving – at least for the short to medium term- within a specific range that is still considered attractive for consuming countries maybe not compared to early 2016 levels but certainly when compared to mid-2014 levels of around $ 100/barrel.
By Linos Kogevinas
Commercial Executive - Cotzias Intermodal Shipping
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 10 September 23
CHINA AUGUST COAL IMPORTS OF 44.3 MLN T HIT RECORD - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal consumer, imported 44.3 million metric tons of the fuel last month, customs data showed, the highest amount in an ...
Tuesday, 22 August 23
CHINA'S COAL PRODUCTION LOGS STEADY GROWTH IN JANUARY-JULY: XINHUA
China’s output of raw coal went up 3.6 percent year on year in the first seven months of this year, official data showed.
The ...
Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a litt ...
Wednesday, 09 August 23
COAL TRADE TO RETURN TO 2019 LEVELS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The International Energy Agency’s mid-year Coal Market Update for 2023 brings both positive and concerning news for the global coal industry. ...
Sunday, 23 July 23
ANALYSIS-INDIA'S COAL MINING BET STUMBLES AS WARY BANKS WEIGH RISING RISKS - REUTERS
India’s drive to ramp up coal output to meet growing energy demand is faltering due to banks’ reluctance to finance newly auctioned min ...
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- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The University of Queensland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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