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Wednesday, 10 January 18
2018: IT IS PROJECTED, THE SHIPBUILDERS WILL DELIVER FOUR HUNDRED FORTY NEW VESSELS IN 2018
 Headlines from IMF's 2017 – World Economic Outlook:
January 2017 - “After a lacklustre outturn in 2016, economic activity is projected to pick up pace in 2017 and 2018”
April 2017- “Global economic activity is picking up with a long-awaited cyclical recovery in investment, manufacturing, and trade”
July 2017 - “The pickup in global growth anticipated in the April World Economic Outlook remains on track...”
October 2017 - “The global upswing in economic activity is strengthening, with global growth projected to rise by 3.8 percent in 2018, compared to 3.7 percent in 2017 [emerging countries]”
So, what has happened in 2017 that has been the drive of the recovery? Is it sustainable? According to a special report by the Economist, in the first half of 2017 the volume of the emerging-market exports increased by 4.6% compared to a year earlier, the fastest growth since 2011; not only this, during the same period the BRIC economies (Brazil, Russia, India and China) all grew simultaneously for the first time in three years and for the first time since 2009, twenty one out of twenty four emerging countries have reported higher - than the previous quarter - quarterly GDP figures.
After exceeding expectations in 2017, the global economy is projected to carry forward its current momentum to generate a 3% growth rate in 2018. China, the biggest contributor and the barometer of the shipping indexes, is expected to grow a bit slower compared to 2017, leaving India as the fastest-growing large economy contributing a growth of 7.8% in the world's GDP. The other countries of the area are also expected to hit growth in excess of 6%. The developed countries will also contribute since the momentum in mature economies increased during 2017 and it is expected to continue growing by a healthy 2.1% in 2018 - compared to the 1.8% 5-year average.
On the ship supply side, the dry bulk fleet (>20,000dwt) just exceeded ten thousand vessels (for the record, ten years ago the fleet was less than seven thousand ships); Whilst 430 vessels were delivered in 2017 the fleet increased by 226 vessels (2.3% fleet growth) as more than 200 bulk carriers were sold for demolition. For 2018 it is projected that the shipbuilders will deliver another four hundred forty vessels; so, if we can assume at least the same demolition activity with 2017 then the fleet growth will increase by about the same number of ships – less if you count slippage and non-reported cancellations. In absolute numbers the orderbook is also smaller compared to last year by about one hundred vessels. This means that despite all the 2017 placed orders, the orderbook was not replenished. The orderbook-to-fleet ratio is also at low levels not seen for many years, 9% for Handysize up to Kamsarmax size and 10% for Capes. So, with sustainable global economic growth, this could mean good news for shipowners.
So, after disappointing global growth over the past few years, this recent pickup combined with the relatively subdued fleet growth provides an ideal window of opportunity for the shipping industry to enjoy good returns.
Happy New Year to all and let’s hope to mark 2018 in our happy memories!
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 13 December 17
DEMAND FOR THERMAL COAL LOOKED RELATIVELY ROBUST - DANIEL HYNES
Coal prices were a touch higher. Demand for thermal coal looked relatively robust, after reports continued to surface that Chinese authorities have ...
Wednesday, 13 December 17
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE PANAGOPOULOS
As another year is coming to an end and much has been already written about the positive reversal in the dry bulk market, we think it is interestin ...
Monday, 11 December 17
INDIA CONSUMERS ARE SAID TO BE DESPERATELY SEEKING CARGOES - DANIEL HYNES
Coal markets were stronger, as strong demand outside China continues to spur buying said Daniel Hynes, Senior Commodity Strategist at ANZ.
Acc ...
Monday, 11 December 17
CAPESIZE FFA MARKET LOOKING PROMISING MOVING FORWARD - FIS
Capesize
Another very promising day for the big ships as rates continued to firm in both oceans and the paper market ate into the backwardation s ...
Friday, 08 December 17
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP 11.6 PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK, EIA DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.7 million short ton ...
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The University of Queensland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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