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Wednesday, 10 January 18
2018: IT IS PROJECTED, THE SHIPBUILDERS WILL DELIVER FOUR HUNDRED FORTY NEW VESSELS IN 2018
 Headlines from IMF's 2017 – World Economic Outlook:
January 2017 - “After a lacklustre outturn in 2016, economic activity is projected to pick up pace in 2017 and 2018”
April 2017- “Global economic activity is picking up with a long-awaited cyclical recovery in investment, manufacturing, and trade”
July 2017 - “The pickup in global growth anticipated in the April World Economic Outlook remains on track...”
October 2017 - “The global upswing in economic activity is strengthening, with global growth projected to rise by 3.8 percent in 2018, compared to 3.7 percent in 2017 [emerging countries]”
So, what has happened in 2017 that has been the drive of the recovery? Is it sustainable? According to a special report by the Economist, in the first half of 2017 the volume of the emerging-market exports increased by 4.6% compared to a year earlier, the fastest growth since 2011; not only this, during the same period the BRIC economies (Brazil, Russia, India and China) all grew simultaneously for the first time in three years and for the first time since 2009, twenty one out of twenty four emerging countries have reported higher - than the previous quarter - quarterly GDP figures.
After exceeding expectations in 2017, the global economy is projected to carry forward its current momentum to generate a 3% growth rate in 2018. China, the biggest contributor and the barometer of the shipping indexes, is expected to grow a bit slower compared to 2017, leaving India as the fastest-growing large economy contributing a growth of 7.8% in the world's GDP. The other countries of the area are also expected to hit growth in excess of 6%. The developed countries will also contribute since the momentum in mature economies increased during 2017 and it is expected to continue growing by a healthy 2.1% in 2018 - compared to the 1.8% 5-year average.
On the ship supply side, the dry bulk fleet (>20,000dwt) just exceeded ten thousand vessels (for the record, ten years ago the fleet was less than seven thousand ships); Whilst 430 vessels were delivered in 2017 the fleet increased by 226 vessels (2.3% fleet growth) as more than 200 bulk carriers were sold for demolition. For 2018 it is projected that the shipbuilders will deliver another four hundred forty vessels; so, if we can assume at least the same demolition activity with 2017 then the fleet growth will increase by about the same number of ships – less if you count slippage and non-reported cancellations. In absolute numbers the orderbook is also smaller compared to last year by about one hundred vessels. This means that despite all the 2017 placed orders, the orderbook was not replenished. The orderbook-to-fleet ratio is also at low levels not seen for many years, 9% for Handysize up to Kamsarmax size and 10% for Capes. So, with sustainable global economic growth, this could mean good news for shipowners.
So, after disappointing global growth over the past few years, this recent pickup combined with the relatively subdued fleet growth provides an ideal window of opportunity for the shipping industry to enjoy good returns.
Happy New Year to all and let’s hope to mark 2018 in our happy memories!
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 13 December 17
DEMAND FOR THERMAL COAL LOOKED RELATIVELY ROBUST - DANIEL HYNES
Coal prices were a touch higher. Demand for thermal coal looked relatively robust, after reports continued to surface that Chinese authorities have ...
Wednesday, 13 December 17
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE PANAGOPOULOS
As another year is coming to an end and much has been already written about the positive reversal in the dry bulk market, we think it is interestin ...
Monday, 11 December 17
INDIA CONSUMERS ARE SAID TO BE DESPERATELY SEEKING CARGOES - DANIEL HYNES
Coal markets were stronger, as strong demand outside China continues to spur buying said Daniel Hynes, Senior Commodity Strategist at ANZ.
Acc ...
Monday, 11 December 17
CAPESIZE FFA MARKET LOOKING PROMISING MOVING FORWARD - FIS
Capesize
Another very promising day for the big ships as rates continued to firm in both oceans and the paper market ate into the backwardation s ...
Friday, 08 December 17
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP 11.6 PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK, EIA DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.7 million short ton ...
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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