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Tuesday, 14 November 17
IN 2018, WORLD OIL DEMAND IS FORESEEN REACHING 1.51 MB/D - OPEC
 Oil Market Highlights - OPEC
The OPEC Reference Basket averaged $55.50/b in October, gaining $2.06 over the previous month and reaching the highest value in more than two-and-a-half years, with a year-to-date average of $50.68/b. Crude futures also reached levels not seen since mid-2015. ICE Brent ended $2.13 higher at $57.65/b, while NYMEX WTI increased $1.72, reaching $51.59/b, keeping the Brent-WTI spread above $6/b. Prices have been supported by rising global demand data and expectations that major producing nations will extend a deal to adjust output and bring the oil market to a balance. Hedge funds raised net long positions in NYMEX WTI and ICE Brent futures and options by 29,456 and 21,592 contracts, respectively, to 281,244 and 530,237 lots. Brent and Dubai remained in backwardation, while the WTI contango eased. Sweet/sour differentials narrowed in Asia and Europe, but widened on the US Gulf Coast.
World Economy
The global economic growth dynamic has continued its momentum, with the forecast for 2017 revised up to 3.7%, from 3.6% in last month’s report. Similarly, the 2018 forecast has been adjusted higher as well to stand at 3.7%, compared to 3.5% in the previous month. Particularly OECD economic growth in 2017 was better than expected so far. The OECD is seen growing by upwardly revised 2.3% in 2017 and 2.2% in 2018. Good momentum – and a potential tax reform – in the US, the ongoing dynamic in the Euro-zone and to some extent in Japan, solid growth in China and India and an improving situation in Russia and Brazil are supporting the growth trend in the short-term.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand growth is expected to rise by 1.53 mb/d in 2017 after an upward adjustment of 74 tb/d to account for the better-than-expected performance of China in 3Q17. In 2018, world oil demand is foreseen reaching 1.51 mb/d, around 130 tb/d higher than in the previous assessment.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply is now projected to grow by 0.65 mb/d y-o-y in 2017, representing a downward revision of 0.02 mb/d from last month’s report. For 2018, growth in non-OPEC oil supply has also been revised down by 0.07 mb/d to stand at 0.87 mb/d. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are expected to grow by 0.18 mb/d in 2018, following an increase of 0.17 mb/d in 2017. In October 2017, OPEC crude oil production decreased by 151 tb/d, according to secondary sources, to average 32.59 mb/d.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Product markets in the Atlantic Basin weakened in October due to seasonally-lower gasoline demand following the end of US driving season. Nonetheless, US refining margins have exhibited some improvement y-o-y on the back of firm product demand and amid low stock levels. In Europe, solid middle-of-the-barrel demand offset weakness at the top and bottom. Product markets in Asia also weakened slightly, but remained at healthy levels, supported by the onset of refinery maintenance.
Tanker Market
Sentiment in the dirty tanker market generally strengthened in October, as freight rates for different classes showed improvements on most major trading routes. Average dirty tanker spot freight rates rose 16% compared to the previous month, on the back of improved seasonal tonnage demand, as well as port and weather delays, among other factors. Despite healthy gains in October, the shipping market remains in surplus, capping further increases in spot freight rates. Meanwhile, clean tanker freight rates experienced a relative decline, although remaining above the levels of the same month last year.
Stock Movements
Total OECD commercial oil stocks fell in September to stand at 2,985 mb. At this level, OECD commercial oil stocks are 154 mb above the latest five-year average. Crude and products stocks indicated a surplus of around 129 mb and 25 mb, respectively, above the seasonal norm. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks stood at 62.3 days in September, some 1.9 days higher than the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Based on the current global oil supply/demand balance, OPEC crude in 2017 is estimated at 33.0 mb/d, around 0.71 mb/d higher than in 2016. OPEC crude in 2018 is estimated at 33.4 mb/d, about 0.46 mb/d higher than in 2017.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 19 October 22
WHAT WILL THE GAS MARKET LOOK LIKE IN A NET ZERO WORLD? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The global gas and LNG market faces a number of ‘great unknowns’. With the market in turmoil uncertainty abounds – from the scale ...
Wednesday, 19 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The LNG market remains extremely tight, and as a result adding further pressure on the vessel charter market, which is already stretched due to the ...
Sunday, 16 October 22
COULD A RETURN TO SHALE EXPLORATION BE PART OF THE SOLUTION TO EUROPE'S GAS SUPPLY PROBLEM? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The European gas market is in turmoil. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shaken things up, triggering a complete rethink of European energy st ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
THERMAL COAL PRICES RETREAT AS WINTER SUPPLY FEARS EASE - REUTERS
The prices of key thermal seaborne coal grades are retreating amid signs that supplies will be sufficient to meet winter demand in both Europe and ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
SPOT COAL BIDDING: CHINESE FIRM WANTS REVISED MECHANISM - BUSINESS RECORDER
Chinese company M/s Huaneng Shandong Ruyi (Pakistan) Energy Limited (HSR) has cautioned National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) that i ...
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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