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Tuesday, 14 November 17
IN 2018, WORLD OIL DEMAND IS FORESEEN REACHING 1.51 MB/D - OPEC
 Oil Market Highlights - OPEC
The OPEC Reference Basket averaged $55.50/b in October, gaining $2.06 over the previous month and reaching the highest value in more than two-and-a-half years, with a year-to-date average of $50.68/b. Crude futures also reached levels not seen since mid-2015. ICE Brent ended $2.13 higher at $57.65/b, while NYMEX WTI increased $1.72, reaching $51.59/b, keeping the Brent-WTI spread above $6/b. Prices have been supported by rising global demand data and expectations that major producing nations will extend a deal to adjust output and bring the oil market to a balance. Hedge funds raised net long positions in NYMEX WTI and ICE Brent futures and options by 29,456 and 21,592 contracts, respectively, to 281,244 and 530,237 lots. Brent and Dubai remained in backwardation, while the WTI contango eased. Sweet/sour differentials narrowed in Asia and Europe, but widened on the US Gulf Coast.
World Economy
The global economic growth dynamic has continued its momentum, with the forecast for 2017 revised up to 3.7%, from 3.6% in last month’s report. Similarly, the 2018 forecast has been adjusted higher as well to stand at 3.7%, compared to 3.5% in the previous month. Particularly OECD economic growth in 2017 was better than expected so far. The OECD is seen growing by upwardly revised 2.3% in 2017 and 2.2% in 2018. Good momentum – and a potential tax reform – in the US, the ongoing dynamic in the Euro-zone and to some extent in Japan, solid growth in China and India and an improving situation in Russia and Brazil are supporting the growth trend in the short-term.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand growth is expected to rise by 1.53 mb/d in 2017 after an upward adjustment of 74 tb/d to account for the better-than-expected performance of China in 3Q17. In 2018, world oil demand is foreseen reaching 1.51 mb/d, around 130 tb/d higher than in the previous assessment.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply is now projected to grow by 0.65 mb/d y-o-y in 2017, representing a downward revision of 0.02 mb/d from last month’s report. For 2018, growth in non-OPEC oil supply has also been revised down by 0.07 mb/d to stand at 0.87 mb/d. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are expected to grow by 0.18 mb/d in 2018, following an increase of 0.17 mb/d in 2017. In October 2017, OPEC crude oil production decreased by 151 tb/d, according to secondary sources, to average 32.59 mb/d.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Product markets in the Atlantic Basin weakened in October due to seasonally-lower gasoline demand following the end of US driving season. Nonetheless, US refining margins have exhibited some improvement y-o-y on the back of firm product demand and amid low stock levels. In Europe, solid middle-of-the-barrel demand offset weakness at the top and bottom. Product markets in Asia also weakened slightly, but remained at healthy levels, supported by the onset of refinery maintenance.
Tanker Market
Sentiment in the dirty tanker market generally strengthened in October, as freight rates for different classes showed improvements on most major trading routes. Average dirty tanker spot freight rates rose 16% compared to the previous month, on the back of improved seasonal tonnage demand, as well as port and weather delays, among other factors. Despite healthy gains in October, the shipping market remains in surplus, capping further increases in spot freight rates. Meanwhile, clean tanker freight rates experienced a relative decline, although remaining above the levels of the same month last year.
Stock Movements
Total OECD commercial oil stocks fell in September to stand at 2,985 mb. At this level, OECD commercial oil stocks are 154 mb above the latest five-year average. Crude and products stocks indicated a surplus of around 129 mb and 25 mb, respectively, above the seasonal norm. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks stood at 62.3 days in September, some 1.9 days higher than the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Based on the current global oil supply/demand balance, OPEC crude in 2017 is estimated at 33.0 mb/d, around 0.71 mb/d higher than in 2016. OPEC crude in 2018 is estimated at 33.4 mb/d, about 0.46 mb/d higher than in 2017.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 04 November 22
CHINA EXPANDS COAL TERM CONTRACTS TO ALL MINES TO STABILIZE MARKET - REUTERS
China has expanded long-term thermal coal supply contracts for 2023 to all coal mines and asked power utilities to source more of their demand thro ...
Thursday, 03 November 22
HANDYSIZE VALUES MOVING UP IN OCTOBER, WHILE LNG VALUES SKYROCKET - VESSELSVALUE
Handysize values have increased this month across most ages, following a period of decline. Values for generic 10 year old Handysizes have moved up ...
Thursday, 03 November 22
EUROPEAN GAS SUPPLY SURPLUS, NOVEMBER HBA DOWN TO US$ 308.2 PER TON - ESDM
European gas supply conditions have a major influence in determining fluctuations in the Reference Coal Price (HBA). The November 2022 HBA recorded ...
Wednesday, 02 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Only five weeks before western sanctions’ full effect, uncertainty over energy has markets and governments on the edge. What was initially th ...
Tuesday, 01 November 22
CHINA COAL TRADE DISRUPTED BY COVID OUTBREAKS AS WINTER LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s strict COVID-19 policy is constraining coal supplies and pushing up prices, industry officials and traders say, just weeks before the ...
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PTC India Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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