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Tuesday, 14 November 17
IN 2018, WORLD OIL DEMAND IS FORESEEN REACHING 1.51 MB/D - OPEC
 Oil Market Highlights - OPEC
The OPEC Reference Basket averaged $55.50/b in October, gaining $2.06 over the previous month and reaching the highest value in more than two-and-a-half years, with a year-to-date average of $50.68/b. Crude futures also reached levels not seen since mid-2015. ICE Brent ended $2.13 higher at $57.65/b, while NYMEX WTI increased $1.72, reaching $51.59/b, keeping the Brent-WTI spread above $6/b. Prices have been supported by rising global demand data and expectations that major producing nations will extend a deal to adjust output and bring the oil market to a balance. Hedge funds raised net long positions in NYMEX WTI and ICE Brent futures and options by 29,456 and 21,592 contracts, respectively, to 281,244 and 530,237 lots. Brent and Dubai remained in backwardation, while the WTI contango eased. Sweet/sour differentials narrowed in Asia and Europe, but widened on the US Gulf Coast.
World Economy
The global economic growth dynamic has continued its momentum, with the forecast for 2017 revised up to 3.7%, from 3.6% in last month’s report. Similarly, the 2018 forecast has been adjusted higher as well to stand at 3.7%, compared to 3.5% in the previous month. Particularly OECD economic growth in 2017 was better than expected so far. The OECD is seen growing by upwardly revised 2.3% in 2017 and 2.2% in 2018. Good momentum – and a potential tax reform – in the US, the ongoing dynamic in the Euro-zone and to some extent in Japan, solid growth in China and India and an improving situation in Russia and Brazil are supporting the growth trend in the short-term.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand growth is expected to rise by 1.53 mb/d in 2017 after an upward adjustment of 74 tb/d to account for the better-than-expected performance of China in 3Q17. In 2018, world oil demand is foreseen reaching 1.51 mb/d, around 130 tb/d higher than in the previous assessment.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply is now projected to grow by 0.65 mb/d y-o-y in 2017, representing a downward revision of 0.02 mb/d from last month’s report. For 2018, growth in non-OPEC oil supply has also been revised down by 0.07 mb/d to stand at 0.87 mb/d. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are expected to grow by 0.18 mb/d in 2018, following an increase of 0.17 mb/d in 2017. In October 2017, OPEC crude oil production decreased by 151 tb/d, according to secondary sources, to average 32.59 mb/d.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Product markets in the Atlantic Basin weakened in October due to seasonally-lower gasoline demand following the end of US driving season. Nonetheless, US refining margins have exhibited some improvement y-o-y on the back of firm product demand and amid low stock levels. In Europe, solid middle-of-the-barrel demand offset weakness at the top and bottom. Product markets in Asia also weakened slightly, but remained at healthy levels, supported by the onset of refinery maintenance.
Tanker Market
Sentiment in the dirty tanker market generally strengthened in October, as freight rates for different classes showed improvements on most major trading routes. Average dirty tanker spot freight rates rose 16% compared to the previous month, on the back of improved seasonal tonnage demand, as well as port and weather delays, among other factors. Despite healthy gains in October, the shipping market remains in surplus, capping further increases in spot freight rates. Meanwhile, clean tanker freight rates experienced a relative decline, although remaining above the levels of the same month last year.
Stock Movements
Total OECD commercial oil stocks fell in September to stand at 2,985 mb. At this level, OECD commercial oil stocks are 154 mb above the latest five-year average. Crude and products stocks indicated a surplus of around 129 mb and 25 mb, respectively, above the seasonal norm. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks stood at 62.3 days in September, some 1.9 days higher than the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Based on the current global oil supply/demand balance, OPEC crude in 2017 is estimated at 33.0 mb/d, around 0.71 mb/d higher than in 2016. OPEC crude in 2018 is estimated at 33.4 mb/d, about 0.46 mb/d higher than in 2017.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equ ...
Wednesday, 12 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Sale and Purchase activity during the first three quarters of 2022 has been remarkable.
Focusing only on Tankers and Bulkers, such v ...
Monday, 10 October 22
ENERGY TRANSITION BOOSTS GLOBAL LONG-TERM DEMAND FOR METALS - FITCH RATINGS
The energy transition will significantly increase demand for metals used in manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable power generation ...
Monday, 10 October 22
GLOBAL CEOS EXPECT IMPENDING RECESSION TO BE 'SHORT AND SHARP,' POLL SHOWS - CNBC
Global CEOs are anticipating a recession in the next 12 months, according to a new survey by professional services firm KPMG, which said more than ...
Thursday, 06 October 22
AUSTRALIA’S RESOURCES REVENUE TO HIT RECORD AMID UKRAINE CONFLICT - REUTERS
Australian resources and energy export earnings are forecast to jump 7% to a record A$450 billion ($290 billion) this fiscal year, bolstered by soa ...
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PTC India Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The University of Queensland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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