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Tuesday, 14 November 17
IN 2018, WORLD OIL DEMAND IS FORESEEN REACHING 1.51 MB/D - OPEC
Oil Market Highlights - OPEC
The OPEC Reference Basket averaged $55.50/b in October, gaining $2.06 over the previous month and reaching the highest value in more than two-and-a-half years, with a year-to-date average of $50.68/b. Crude futures also reached levels not seen since mid-2015. ICE Brent ended $2.13 higher at $57.65/b, while NYMEX WTI increased $1.72, reaching $51.59/b, keeping the Brent-WTI spread above $6/b. Prices have been supported by rising global demand data and expectations that major producing nations will extend a deal to adjust output and bring the oil market to a balance. Hedge funds raised net long positions in NYMEX WTI and ICE Brent futures and options by 29,456 and 21,592 contracts, respectively, to 281,244 and 530,237 lots. Brent and Dubai remained in backwardation, while the WTI contango eased. Sweet/sour differentials narrowed in Asia and Europe, but widened on the US Gulf Coast.
World Economy
The global economic growth dynamic has continued its momentum, with the forecast for 2017 revised up to 3.7%, from 3.6% in last month’s report. Similarly, the 2018 forecast has been adjusted higher as well to stand at 3.7%, compared to 3.5% in the previous month. Particularly OECD economic growth in 2017 was better than expected so far. The OECD is seen growing by upwardly revised 2.3% in 2017 and 2.2% in 2018. Good momentum – and a potential tax reform – in the US, the ongoing dynamic in the Euro-zone and to some extent in Japan, solid growth in China and India and an improving situation in Russia and Brazil are supporting the growth trend in the short-term.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand growth is expected to rise by 1.53 mb/d in 2017 after an upward adjustment of 74 tb/d to account for the better-than-expected performance of China in 3Q17. In 2018, world oil demand is foreseen reaching 1.51 mb/d, around 130 tb/d higher than in the previous assessment.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply is now projected to grow by 0.65 mb/d y-o-y in 2017, representing a downward revision of 0.02 mb/d from last month’s report. For 2018, growth in non-OPEC oil supply has also been revised down by 0.07 mb/d to stand at 0.87 mb/d. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are expected to grow by 0.18 mb/d in 2018, following an increase of 0.17 mb/d in 2017. In October 2017, OPEC crude oil production decreased by 151 tb/d, according to secondary sources, to average 32.59 mb/d.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Product markets in the Atlantic Basin weakened in October due to seasonally-lower gasoline demand following the end of US driving season. Nonetheless, US refining margins have exhibited some improvement y-o-y on the back of firm product demand and amid low stock levels. In Europe, solid middle-of-the-barrel demand offset weakness at the top and bottom. Product markets in Asia also weakened slightly, but remained at healthy levels, supported by the onset of refinery maintenance.
Tanker Market
Sentiment in the dirty tanker market generally strengthened in October, as freight rates for different classes showed improvements on most major trading routes. Average dirty tanker spot freight rates rose 16% compared to the previous month, on the back of improved seasonal tonnage demand, as well as port and weather delays, among other factors. Despite healthy gains in October, the shipping market remains in surplus, capping further increases in spot freight rates. Meanwhile, clean tanker freight rates experienced a relative decline, although remaining above the levels of the same month last year.
Stock Movements
Total OECD commercial oil stocks fell in September to stand at 2,985 mb. At this level, OECD commercial oil stocks are 154 mb above the latest five-year average. Crude and products stocks indicated a surplus of around 129 mb and 25 mb, respectively, above the seasonal norm. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks stood at 62.3 days in September, some 1.9 days higher than the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Based on the current global oil supply/demand balance, OPEC crude in 2017 is estimated at 33.0 mb/d, around 0.71 mb/d higher than in 2016. OPEC crude in 2018 is estimated at 33.4 mb/d, about 0.46 mb/d higher than in 2017.
Source: OPEC
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Sunday, 26 February 23
MAWANI AND JEDDAH CHAMBER SIGN AN AGREEMENT TO BUILD INTEGRATED LOGISTICS PARK
Press Release: The Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) and Jeddah Chamber of Commerce and Industry have today inked an agreement to set up an integrated ...
Saturday, 25 February 23
INDONESIA IS STILL BY FAR THE TOP SUPPLIER OF COAL TO CHINA - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, said ban ...
Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progre ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
OIL UNLIKELY TO BREAK ABOVE $100/BBL THIS YEAR, J.P.MORGAN SAYS –- REUTERS
Brent oil prices are unlikely to breach the $100 a barrel level this year, barring any significant geopolitical drivers, with OPEC+ potentially add ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
CHINA'S COAL PRICES FALL TO 1 YR-LOW, CLOUDING DEMAND AND IMPORT OUTLOOK - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal prices hit their lowest levels in a year this week on rising inventories as domestic mine production is recovering faste ...
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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