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Tuesday, 14 November 17
IN 2018, WORLD OIL DEMAND IS FORESEEN REACHING 1.51 MB/D - OPEC
 Oil Market Highlights - OPEC
The OPEC Reference Basket averaged $55.50/b in October, gaining $2.06 over the previous month and reaching the highest value in more than two-and-a-half years, with a year-to-date average of $50.68/b. Crude futures also reached levels not seen since mid-2015. ICE Brent ended $2.13 higher at $57.65/b, while NYMEX WTI increased $1.72, reaching $51.59/b, keeping the Brent-WTI spread above $6/b. Prices have been supported by rising global demand data and expectations that major producing nations will extend a deal to adjust output and bring the oil market to a balance. Hedge funds raised net long positions in NYMEX WTI and ICE Brent futures and options by 29,456 and 21,592 contracts, respectively, to 281,244 and 530,237 lots. Brent and Dubai remained in backwardation, while the WTI contango eased. Sweet/sour differentials narrowed in Asia and Europe, but widened on the US Gulf Coast.
World Economy
The global economic growth dynamic has continued its momentum, with the forecast for 2017 revised up to 3.7%, from 3.6% in last month’s report. Similarly, the 2018 forecast has been adjusted higher as well to stand at 3.7%, compared to 3.5% in the previous month. Particularly OECD economic growth in 2017 was better than expected so far. The OECD is seen growing by upwardly revised 2.3% in 2017 and 2.2% in 2018. Good momentum – and a potential tax reform – in the US, the ongoing dynamic in the Euro-zone and to some extent in Japan, solid growth in China and India and an improving situation in Russia and Brazil are supporting the growth trend in the short-term.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand growth is expected to rise by 1.53 mb/d in 2017 after an upward adjustment of 74 tb/d to account for the better-than-expected performance of China in 3Q17. In 2018, world oil demand is foreseen reaching 1.51 mb/d, around 130 tb/d higher than in the previous assessment.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply is now projected to grow by 0.65 mb/d y-o-y in 2017, representing a downward revision of 0.02 mb/d from last month’s report. For 2018, growth in non-OPEC oil supply has also been revised down by 0.07 mb/d to stand at 0.87 mb/d. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are expected to grow by 0.18 mb/d in 2018, following an increase of 0.17 mb/d in 2017. In October 2017, OPEC crude oil production decreased by 151 tb/d, according to secondary sources, to average 32.59 mb/d.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Product markets in the Atlantic Basin weakened in October due to seasonally-lower gasoline demand following the end of US driving season. Nonetheless, US refining margins have exhibited some improvement y-o-y on the back of firm product demand and amid low stock levels. In Europe, solid middle-of-the-barrel demand offset weakness at the top and bottom. Product markets in Asia also weakened slightly, but remained at healthy levels, supported by the onset of refinery maintenance.
Tanker Market
Sentiment in the dirty tanker market generally strengthened in October, as freight rates for different classes showed improvements on most major trading routes. Average dirty tanker spot freight rates rose 16% compared to the previous month, on the back of improved seasonal tonnage demand, as well as port and weather delays, among other factors. Despite healthy gains in October, the shipping market remains in surplus, capping further increases in spot freight rates. Meanwhile, clean tanker freight rates experienced a relative decline, although remaining above the levels of the same month last year.
Stock Movements
Total OECD commercial oil stocks fell in September to stand at 2,985 mb. At this level, OECD commercial oil stocks are 154 mb above the latest five-year average. Crude and products stocks indicated a surplus of around 129 mb and 25 mb, respectively, above the seasonal norm. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks stood at 62.3 days in September, some 1.9 days higher than the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Based on the current global oil supply/demand balance, OPEC crude in 2017 is estimated at 33.0 mb/d, around 0.71 mb/d higher than in 2016. OPEC crude in 2018 is estimated at 33.4 mb/d, about 0.46 mb/d higher than in 2017.
Source: OPEC
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Saturday, 18 February 23
PAKISTAN PLANS TO QUADRUPLE DOMESTIC COAL-FIRED POWER, MOVE AWAY FROM GAS - REUTERS
Pakistan plans to quadruple its domestic coal-fired capacity to reduce power generation costs and will not build new gas-fired plants in the coming ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
2023 MARINE FUEL MARKET PREDICTIONS - JOHN BERGMAN, AURAMARINE
The drive for decarbonisation we witnessed in 2022 has continued into 2023, demonstrating the shipping’s industry positive strides in the fas ...
Saturday, 28 January 23
COAL GROWTH BLIP NOT TO BE REPEATED - BALTIC EXCHANGE
As 2022 drew to a close, global coal demand looked set to end the year just 1.2% up on the previous year. But that small increase was enough to pus ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT INCREASES IN DECEMBER 2022 - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in December 2022, official data showed.
The country produced 400 million tonne ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
COKING COAL NARROWS THE GAP ON THERMAL AS CHINA REOPENS - REUTERS
The premium of high-grade thermal coal over coking coal in Asia is shrinking as China’s re-opening and ending of a ban on imports from Austra ...
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Coal Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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