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Tuesday, 14 November 17
IN 2018, WORLD OIL DEMAND IS FORESEEN REACHING 1.51 MB/D - OPEC
 Oil Market Highlights - OPEC
The OPEC Reference Basket averaged $55.50/b in October, gaining $2.06 over the previous month and reaching the highest value in more than two-and-a-half years, with a year-to-date average of $50.68/b. Crude futures also reached levels not seen since mid-2015. ICE Brent ended $2.13 higher at $57.65/b, while NYMEX WTI increased $1.72, reaching $51.59/b, keeping the Brent-WTI spread above $6/b. Prices have been supported by rising global demand data and expectations that major producing nations will extend a deal to adjust output and bring the oil market to a balance. Hedge funds raised net long positions in NYMEX WTI and ICE Brent futures and options by 29,456 and 21,592 contracts, respectively, to 281,244 and 530,237 lots. Brent and Dubai remained in backwardation, while the WTI contango eased. Sweet/sour differentials narrowed in Asia and Europe, but widened on the US Gulf Coast.
World Economy
The global economic growth dynamic has continued its momentum, with the forecast for 2017 revised up to 3.7%, from 3.6% in last month’s report. Similarly, the 2018 forecast has been adjusted higher as well to stand at 3.7%, compared to 3.5% in the previous month. Particularly OECD economic growth in 2017 was better than expected so far. The OECD is seen growing by upwardly revised 2.3% in 2017 and 2.2% in 2018. Good momentum – and a potential tax reform – in the US, the ongoing dynamic in the Euro-zone and to some extent in Japan, solid growth in China and India and an improving situation in Russia and Brazil are supporting the growth trend in the short-term.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand growth is expected to rise by 1.53 mb/d in 2017 after an upward adjustment of 74 tb/d to account for the better-than-expected performance of China in 3Q17. In 2018, world oil demand is foreseen reaching 1.51 mb/d, around 130 tb/d higher than in the previous assessment.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply is now projected to grow by 0.65 mb/d y-o-y in 2017, representing a downward revision of 0.02 mb/d from last month’s report. For 2018, growth in non-OPEC oil supply has also been revised down by 0.07 mb/d to stand at 0.87 mb/d. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are expected to grow by 0.18 mb/d in 2018, following an increase of 0.17 mb/d in 2017. In October 2017, OPEC crude oil production decreased by 151 tb/d, according to secondary sources, to average 32.59 mb/d.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Product markets in the Atlantic Basin weakened in October due to seasonally-lower gasoline demand following the end of US driving season. Nonetheless, US refining margins have exhibited some improvement y-o-y on the back of firm product demand and amid low stock levels. In Europe, solid middle-of-the-barrel demand offset weakness at the top and bottom. Product markets in Asia also weakened slightly, but remained at healthy levels, supported by the onset of refinery maintenance.
Tanker Market
Sentiment in the dirty tanker market generally strengthened in October, as freight rates for different classes showed improvements on most major trading routes. Average dirty tanker spot freight rates rose 16% compared to the previous month, on the back of improved seasonal tonnage demand, as well as port and weather delays, among other factors. Despite healthy gains in October, the shipping market remains in surplus, capping further increases in spot freight rates. Meanwhile, clean tanker freight rates experienced a relative decline, although remaining above the levels of the same month last year.
Stock Movements
Total OECD commercial oil stocks fell in September to stand at 2,985 mb. At this level, OECD commercial oil stocks are 154 mb above the latest five-year average. Crude and products stocks indicated a surplus of around 129 mb and 25 mb, respectively, above the seasonal norm. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks stood at 62.3 days in September, some 1.9 days higher than the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Based on the current global oil supply/demand balance, OPEC crude in 2017 is estimated at 33.0 mb/d, around 0.71 mb/d higher than in 2016. OPEC crude in 2018 is estimated at 33.4 mb/d, about 0.46 mb/d higher than in 2017.
Source: OPEC
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Sunday, 10 September 23
CHINA AUGUST COAL IMPORTS OF 44.3 MLN T HIT RECORD - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal consumer, imported 44.3 million metric tons of the fuel last month, customs data showed, the highest amount in an ...
Tuesday, 22 August 23
CHINA'S COAL PRODUCTION LOGS STEADY GROWTH IN JANUARY-JULY: XINHUA
China’s output of raw coal went up 3.6 percent year on year in the first seven months of this year, official data showed.
The ...
Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a litt ...
Wednesday, 09 August 23
COAL TRADE TO RETURN TO 2019 LEVELS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The International Energy Agency’s mid-year Coal Market Update for 2023 brings both positive and concerning news for the global coal industry. ...
Sunday, 23 July 23
ANALYSIS-INDIA'S COAL MINING BET STUMBLES AS WARY BANKS WEIGH RISING RISKS - REUTERS
India’s drive to ramp up coal output to meet growing energy demand is faltering due to banks’ reluctance to finance newly auctioned min ...
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Planning Commission, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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