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Tuesday, 14 November 17
IN 2018, WORLD OIL DEMAND IS FORESEEN REACHING 1.51 MB/D - OPEC
 Oil Market Highlights - OPEC
The OPEC Reference Basket averaged $55.50/b in October, gaining $2.06 over the previous month and reaching the highest value in more than two-and-a-half years, with a year-to-date average of $50.68/b. Crude futures also reached levels not seen since mid-2015. ICE Brent ended $2.13 higher at $57.65/b, while NYMEX WTI increased $1.72, reaching $51.59/b, keeping the Brent-WTI spread above $6/b. Prices have been supported by rising global demand data and expectations that major producing nations will extend a deal to adjust output and bring the oil market to a balance. Hedge funds raised net long positions in NYMEX WTI and ICE Brent futures and options by 29,456 and 21,592 contracts, respectively, to 281,244 and 530,237 lots. Brent and Dubai remained in backwardation, while the WTI contango eased. Sweet/sour differentials narrowed in Asia and Europe, but widened on the US Gulf Coast.
World Economy
The global economic growth dynamic has continued its momentum, with the forecast for 2017 revised up to 3.7%, from 3.6% in last month’s report. Similarly, the 2018 forecast has been adjusted higher as well to stand at 3.7%, compared to 3.5% in the previous month. Particularly OECD economic growth in 2017 was better than expected so far. The OECD is seen growing by upwardly revised 2.3% in 2017 and 2.2% in 2018. Good momentum – and a potential tax reform – in the US, the ongoing dynamic in the Euro-zone and to some extent in Japan, solid growth in China and India and an improving situation in Russia and Brazil are supporting the growth trend in the short-term.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand growth is expected to rise by 1.53 mb/d in 2017 after an upward adjustment of 74 tb/d to account for the better-than-expected performance of China in 3Q17. In 2018, world oil demand is foreseen reaching 1.51 mb/d, around 130 tb/d higher than in the previous assessment.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply is now projected to grow by 0.65 mb/d y-o-y in 2017, representing a downward revision of 0.02 mb/d from last month’s report. For 2018, growth in non-OPEC oil supply has also been revised down by 0.07 mb/d to stand at 0.87 mb/d. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are expected to grow by 0.18 mb/d in 2018, following an increase of 0.17 mb/d in 2017. In October 2017, OPEC crude oil production decreased by 151 tb/d, according to secondary sources, to average 32.59 mb/d.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Product markets in the Atlantic Basin weakened in October due to seasonally-lower gasoline demand following the end of US driving season. Nonetheless, US refining margins have exhibited some improvement y-o-y on the back of firm product demand and amid low stock levels. In Europe, solid middle-of-the-barrel demand offset weakness at the top and bottom. Product markets in Asia also weakened slightly, but remained at healthy levels, supported by the onset of refinery maintenance.
Tanker Market
Sentiment in the dirty tanker market generally strengthened in October, as freight rates for different classes showed improvements on most major trading routes. Average dirty tanker spot freight rates rose 16% compared to the previous month, on the back of improved seasonal tonnage demand, as well as port and weather delays, among other factors. Despite healthy gains in October, the shipping market remains in surplus, capping further increases in spot freight rates. Meanwhile, clean tanker freight rates experienced a relative decline, although remaining above the levels of the same month last year.
Stock Movements
Total OECD commercial oil stocks fell in September to stand at 2,985 mb. At this level, OECD commercial oil stocks are 154 mb above the latest five-year average. Crude and products stocks indicated a surplus of around 129 mb and 25 mb, respectively, above the seasonal norm. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks stood at 62.3 days in September, some 1.9 days higher than the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Based on the current global oil supply/demand balance, OPEC crude in 2017 is estimated at 33.0 mb/d, around 0.71 mb/d higher than in 2016. OPEC crude in 2018 is estimated at 33.4 mb/d, about 0.46 mb/d higher than in 2017.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 09 November 23
GREEK AND CHINESE COMPANIES OWN 34% OF THE GLOBAL FLEET’S CARGO CAPACITY - BIMCO
“The global fleet of cargo carrying ships consists of around 61,000 ships with a deadweight capacity of about 2,200 million tonnes. The ships ...
Monday, 23 October 23
CHINA SEPT COAL OUTPUT HITS SIX-MONTH HIGH ON RISING POWER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s September coal output rose 0.4% from August to the highest level since March, official data showed on Wednesday, on rising power dema ...
Monday, 23 October 23
INDIA COAL INVENTORIES DROP AT FASTEST PACE IN TWO YEARS, BOOSTING IMPORTS - REUTERS
Coal inventories at Indian power plants in the first half of October fell at their fastest rate in two years, an analysis of government data showed ...
Tuesday, 19 September 23
LNG SHIPPING STOCKS: THE ASIAN GROWTH UP-INDICES
Last week, the UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI) gained 3.81 points or 2.51%, closing at 155.85 points. This index tracks the performance of LNG sh ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
GOLDMAN SACHS PREDICTS OIL PRICE TO HIT $100 ON OPEC CUTS - YAHOO FINANCE
Oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia could lead to Brent crude jumping as high as $107 a barrel in 2024, Goldman Sachs Commodities Research h ...
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
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