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Tuesday, 14 November 17
IN 2018, WORLD OIL DEMAND IS FORESEEN REACHING 1.51 MB/D - OPEC
 Oil Market Highlights - OPEC
The OPEC Reference Basket averaged $55.50/b in October, gaining $2.06 over the previous month and reaching the highest value in more than two-and-a-half years, with a year-to-date average of $50.68/b. Crude futures also reached levels not seen since mid-2015. ICE Brent ended $2.13 higher at $57.65/b, while NYMEX WTI increased $1.72, reaching $51.59/b, keeping the Brent-WTI spread above $6/b. Prices have been supported by rising global demand data and expectations that major producing nations will extend a deal to adjust output and bring the oil market to a balance. Hedge funds raised net long positions in NYMEX WTI and ICE Brent futures and options by 29,456 and 21,592 contracts, respectively, to 281,244 and 530,237 lots. Brent and Dubai remained in backwardation, while the WTI contango eased. Sweet/sour differentials narrowed in Asia and Europe, but widened on the US Gulf Coast.
World Economy
The global economic growth dynamic has continued its momentum, with the forecast for 2017 revised up to 3.7%, from 3.6% in last month’s report. Similarly, the 2018 forecast has been adjusted higher as well to stand at 3.7%, compared to 3.5% in the previous month. Particularly OECD economic growth in 2017 was better than expected so far. The OECD is seen growing by upwardly revised 2.3% in 2017 and 2.2% in 2018. Good momentum – and a potential tax reform – in the US, the ongoing dynamic in the Euro-zone and to some extent in Japan, solid growth in China and India and an improving situation in Russia and Brazil are supporting the growth trend in the short-term.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand growth is expected to rise by 1.53 mb/d in 2017 after an upward adjustment of 74 tb/d to account for the better-than-expected performance of China in 3Q17. In 2018, world oil demand is foreseen reaching 1.51 mb/d, around 130 tb/d higher than in the previous assessment.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply is now projected to grow by 0.65 mb/d y-o-y in 2017, representing a downward revision of 0.02 mb/d from last month’s report. For 2018, growth in non-OPEC oil supply has also been revised down by 0.07 mb/d to stand at 0.87 mb/d. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are expected to grow by 0.18 mb/d in 2018, following an increase of 0.17 mb/d in 2017. In October 2017, OPEC crude oil production decreased by 151 tb/d, according to secondary sources, to average 32.59 mb/d.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Product markets in the Atlantic Basin weakened in October due to seasonally-lower gasoline demand following the end of US driving season. Nonetheless, US refining margins have exhibited some improvement y-o-y on the back of firm product demand and amid low stock levels. In Europe, solid middle-of-the-barrel demand offset weakness at the top and bottom. Product markets in Asia also weakened slightly, but remained at healthy levels, supported by the onset of refinery maintenance.
Tanker Market
Sentiment in the dirty tanker market generally strengthened in October, as freight rates for different classes showed improvements on most major trading routes. Average dirty tanker spot freight rates rose 16% compared to the previous month, on the back of improved seasonal tonnage demand, as well as port and weather delays, among other factors. Despite healthy gains in October, the shipping market remains in surplus, capping further increases in spot freight rates. Meanwhile, clean tanker freight rates experienced a relative decline, although remaining above the levels of the same month last year.
Stock Movements
Total OECD commercial oil stocks fell in September to stand at 2,985 mb. At this level, OECD commercial oil stocks are 154 mb above the latest five-year average. Crude and products stocks indicated a surplus of around 129 mb and 25 mb, respectively, above the seasonal norm. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks stood at 62.3 days in September, some 1.9 days higher than the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Based on the current global oil supply/demand balance, OPEC crude in 2017 is estimated at 33.0 mb/d, around 0.71 mb/d higher than in 2016. OPEC crude in 2018 is estimated at 33.4 mb/d, about 0.46 mb/d higher than in 2017.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 09 November 23
GREEK AND CHINESE COMPANIES OWN 34% OF THE GLOBAL FLEET’S CARGO CAPACITY - BIMCO
“The global fleet of cargo carrying ships consists of around 61,000 ships with a deadweight capacity of about 2,200 million tonnes. The ships ...
Monday, 23 October 23
CHINA SEPT COAL OUTPUT HITS SIX-MONTH HIGH ON RISING POWER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s September coal output rose 0.4% from August to the highest level since March, official data showed on Wednesday, on rising power dema ...
Monday, 23 October 23
INDIA COAL INVENTORIES DROP AT FASTEST PACE IN TWO YEARS, BOOSTING IMPORTS - REUTERS
Coal inventories at Indian power plants in the first half of October fell at their fastest rate in two years, an analysis of government data showed ...
Tuesday, 19 September 23
LNG SHIPPING STOCKS: THE ASIAN GROWTH UP-INDICES
Last week, the UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI) gained 3.81 points or 2.51%, closing at 155.85 points. This index tracks the performance of LNG sh ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
GOLDMAN SACHS PREDICTS OIL PRICE TO HIT $100 ON OPEC CUTS - YAHOO FINANCE
Oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia could lead to Brent crude jumping as high as $107 a barrel in 2024, Goldman Sachs Commodities Research h ...
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Coal Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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