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Wednesday, 01 March 17
2017 IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE A GOOD YEAR FOR A NUMBER OF COMMODITIES - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 2017 is looking like it will be a good year for a number of commodities. Following the price recovery witnessed in 2016 across a number of commodities, the price of iron ore, zinc, copper, oil and natural gas appears poised to continue its upward trend.
Specifically, industrial metals were some of the largest winners of 2016 and this trend has continued in 2017 so far. Iron ore was the foremost gainer making a strong recovery from the lows of a disastrous 2015, with prices reaching USD82.4/tonne in December.
The climb has continued in 2017 with yesterday’s (27/02) price closing in excess of USD 87 /tonne, a far cry from 2015’s levels. While iron ore and steel futures did exhibit a slow-down last week, they jumped again on Monday by ~4% signalling the bullishness of the market. The latest 4-month rally has left a positive impression on market players, with mining giants such as Vale or BHP expecting a very strong year.
In any discussion regarding iron ore, it is important to take a look at the most influential nation in this market, China. While there has been some anxiety regarding China’s increasing production in 2017 (expected to increase by 0.5%, up to 825m metric tonnes), it is also important to note the increase in domestic demand, as China is expected to consume approx. 87% of this production.
Iron ore tends to follow Chinese steelmaking trends and the increase in infrastructure projects has driven up demand for steel, with Shanghai rebar hitting its highest price since February 2014. As China continues to provide support to the construction sector mainly through partnerships with private sector businesses on public infrastructure projects, this interior demand is expected to hold up for the rest of the year as well. This coupled with expected steel production limitations in 2017 leads to strong price expectations.
One variable to look at in 2017 is Trump’s alleged US infrastructure plan. While we have seen infrastructure spending affecting metal prices before, at this point there are not enough specifics to be able to draw a conclusion on whether this would provide any significant uptick on industrial metal prices or if indeed the promise itself will be materialized. It is worth noting that the 2009 US stimulus package which saw ~105bn going to infrastructure spending failed to produce a significant net effect on copper or steel prices.
While optimism continues to abound in most circles, various analysts are questioning whether this rally will be sustainable in the mid-long term with many of them expecting a softening of prices in the second half of 2017 due to the increase in Australian and Brazilian production.
In any case, this sustainable demand has had a noticeable effect on shipping markets and especially the Capesize segment, with today’s earnings quoted in excess of USD 8,000/day compared to the same time last year when average earnings for the size were hovering at around USD 2,300/day.
By Linos Kogevinas
Commercial Executive, Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 05 April 17
THE AVERAGE SECOND HAND PANAMAXES AND CAPES PRICES FOR A 5-YR OLD VESSEL HAS INCREASED MORE THAN 19% AND 20% RESPECTIVELY M/M - INTERMODAL
With the help of what so far appears to be a very strong grain season together with the fact that imports from China have remained so far robust in ...
Tuesday, 04 April 17
THE IRON ORE HAS BEEN ABLE TO KEEP ITS GROWTH PATH FAIRLY WELL; THERE IS STILL ONE PART OF THE WORLD THAT IS STILL HEAVILY COMMITTED TO COAL
With the close of March having let us with a very positive after taste and having witnessed near the end of the month the Baltic Dry Index at its h ...
Monday, 03 April 17
WORLD COAL TRADE STABLE IN 2016: DEMAND SHIFTS TO SOUTH-EAST ASIA - ASSOCARBONI
ASSOCARBONI: Coal confirmed as the leading fuel for electricity generation, accounting for 40% of overall production in 2016.
World coal trade ...
Monday, 03 April 17
DRY BULK RATES CONTINUING TO FIRMING UP
COALspot.com: The Freight market was continuing to firming up. Baltic Panamax Index rose 12.81 percent week over week.
The Baltic Exchang ...
Friday, 31 March 17
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION INCREASE SLIGHTLY WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 14.5 million short tons ...
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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