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Wednesday, 01 March 17
2017 IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE A GOOD YEAR FOR A NUMBER OF COMMODITIES - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 2017 is looking like it will be a good year for a number of commodities. Following the price recovery witnessed in 2016 across a number of commodities, the price of iron ore, zinc, copper, oil and natural gas appears poised to continue its upward trend.
Specifically, industrial metals were some of the largest winners of 2016 and this trend has continued in 2017 so far. Iron ore was the foremost gainer making a strong recovery from the lows of a disastrous 2015, with prices reaching USD82.4/tonne in December.
The climb has continued in 2017 with yesterday’s (27/02) price closing in excess of USD 87 /tonne, a far cry from 2015’s levels. While iron ore and steel futures did exhibit a slow-down last week, they jumped again on Monday by ~4% signalling the bullishness of the market. The latest 4-month rally has left a positive impression on market players, with mining giants such as Vale or BHP expecting a very strong year.
In any discussion regarding iron ore, it is important to take a look at the most influential nation in this market, China. While there has been some anxiety regarding China’s increasing production in 2017 (expected to increase by 0.5%, up to 825m metric tonnes), it is also important to note the increase in domestic demand, as China is expected to consume approx. 87% of this production.
Iron ore tends to follow Chinese steelmaking trends and the increase in infrastructure projects has driven up demand for steel, with Shanghai rebar hitting its highest price since February 2014. As China continues to provide support to the construction sector mainly through partnerships with private sector businesses on public infrastructure projects, this interior demand is expected to hold up for the rest of the year as well. This coupled with expected steel production limitations in 2017 leads to strong price expectations.
One variable to look at in 2017 is Trump’s alleged US infrastructure plan. While we have seen infrastructure spending affecting metal prices before, at this point there are not enough specifics to be able to draw a conclusion on whether this would provide any significant uptick on industrial metal prices or if indeed the promise itself will be materialized. It is worth noting that the 2009 US stimulus package which saw ~105bn going to infrastructure spending failed to produce a significant net effect on copper or steel prices.
While optimism continues to abound in most circles, various analysts are questioning whether this rally will be sustainable in the mid-long term with many of them expecting a softening of prices in the second half of 2017 due to the increase in Australian and Brazilian production.
In any case, this sustainable demand has had a noticeable effect on shipping markets and especially the Capesize segment, with today’s earnings quoted in excess of USD 8,000/day compared to the same time last year when average earnings for the size were hovering at around USD 2,300/day.
By Linos Kogevinas
Commercial Executive, Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 20 April 17
CHINA'S IMPORT OF IRON ORE TO PROPEL DRY BULK SHIPPING DEMAND IN 2017 - PETER SAND
China's import of iron ore will continue to be a key driver for the demand growth in 2017 for the dry bulk shipping industry, alongside shippin ...
Monday, 17 April 17
THE PANAMAX INDEX (BPI) ROSE (12.89%) WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market was firm, week over a week as all segments show a positive upward trend this past week.
The Baltic Exchange, ...
Monday, 17 April 17
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT FELL 5% WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.8 million short tons ...
Thursday, 13 April 17
OPEC OVER-DELIVERS ON OIL CUTS, BUT SEES RIVALS' OUTPUT RISING
Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket averaged $50.32/b in March, representing a decline of 5.7% from the previous month. Crude fut ...
Wednesday, 12 April 17
THE PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.791 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN MARCH 2017
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export ports has shipped $AU 1,688.5 ...
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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