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Wednesday, 01 March 17
2017 IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE A GOOD YEAR FOR A NUMBER OF COMMODITIES - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 2017 is looking like it will be a good year for a number of commodities. Following the price recovery witnessed in 2016 across a number of commodities, the price of iron ore, zinc, copper, oil and natural gas appears poised to continue its upward trend.
Specifically, industrial metals were some of the largest winners of 2016 and this trend has continued in 2017 so far. Iron ore was the foremost gainer making a strong recovery from the lows of a disastrous 2015, with prices reaching USD82.4/tonne in December.
The climb has continued in 2017 with yesterday’s (27/02) price closing in excess of USD 87 /tonne, a far cry from 2015’s levels. While iron ore and steel futures did exhibit a slow-down last week, they jumped again on Monday by ~4% signalling the bullishness of the market. The latest 4-month rally has left a positive impression on market players, with mining giants such as Vale or BHP expecting a very strong year.
In any discussion regarding iron ore, it is important to take a look at the most influential nation in this market, China. While there has been some anxiety regarding China’s increasing production in 2017 (expected to increase by 0.5%, up to 825m metric tonnes), it is also important to note the increase in domestic demand, as China is expected to consume approx. 87% of this production.
Iron ore tends to follow Chinese steelmaking trends and the increase in infrastructure projects has driven up demand for steel, with Shanghai rebar hitting its highest price since February 2014. As China continues to provide support to the construction sector mainly through partnerships with private sector businesses on public infrastructure projects, this interior demand is expected to hold up for the rest of the year as well. This coupled with expected steel production limitations in 2017 leads to strong price expectations.
One variable to look at in 2017 is Trump’s alleged US infrastructure plan. While we have seen infrastructure spending affecting metal prices before, at this point there are not enough specifics to be able to draw a conclusion on whether this would provide any significant uptick on industrial metal prices or if indeed the promise itself will be materialized. It is worth noting that the 2009 US stimulus package which saw ~105bn going to infrastructure spending failed to produce a significant net effect on copper or steel prices.
While optimism continues to abound in most circles, various analysts are questioning whether this rally will be sustainable in the mid-long term with many of them expecting a softening of prices in the second half of 2017 due to the increase in Australian and Brazilian production.
In any case, this sustainable demand has had a noticeable effect on shipping markets and especially the Capesize segment, with today’s earnings quoted in excess of USD 8,000/day compared to the same time last year when average earnings for the size were hovering at around USD 2,300/day.
By Linos Kogevinas
Commercial Executive, Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 30 March 17
WHERE AN AGREEMENT FAILS TO DELIVER - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Watson Farley & Williams acted for MRI Trading AG in a leading case on ‘agreements to agree’ that was fin ...
Thursday, 30 March 17
PANAMAX : ACTIVITY IN THE PANAMAX MARKET HAS INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY IN BOTH HEMISPHERES - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
This week we were looking at prolonged activity from ECSA, mostly with grain cargoes to Far East and SE Asia, where Ultras to SE Asia fi ...
Thursday, 30 March 17
THE ROLE OF COAL IN THE ENERGY SUPPLY OF THE EU-28: HANS-WILHELM SCHIFFER
The European Union (EU-28) is one of the largest economies in the world, with a gross domestic product (GDP) of €14,635 billion in 2015. It ha ...
Wednesday, 29 March 17
MARKET INSIGHT - NASOS SOULAKIS
Shipowners will always look for market signals in order to gauge market perception and decide upon which strategy to follow next. And while owners ...
Monday, 27 March 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET CONTINUED TO FIRM WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market was continuing to firming up.
The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities ros ...
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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