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Wednesday, 01 February 17
MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
 The recent placement of LOIs for 208kdwt Newcastlemax Newbuildings at $38.5m at Private Chinese Yard identifies with the modern history low for dry bulker shipbuilding. Adjusting for dwt, this would imply today $32m and $27.8m for 172kdwt and 150kdwt Capesize newbuilding, respectively. What a coincidence: in 1999 the 172kdwt Cape new buildings were placed for as low as $32m, while in 1986 the 150kdwt new buildings were placed for around $27m. All of the above are mentioned in nominal terms (not real dollars, ignoring inflation). It appears the $185/dwt is an intertemporal true (sub-)cost level for large dry bulkers.
The -once gigantic- dry bulk order book has been rapidly correcting itself. From its 2009 peak at 78% order book to fleet ratio, it is now constrained to 9% of the fleet, the lowest in 15 years. The dry bulk newbuilding slippage last year stood at 47%; in fact, the Kamsarmax newbuilding delivery rate was only 49%. While we currently face a strong wave of newbuilding deliveries (in January thus far we have 16 Capes, 26 Kamsarmaxes, 40 Ultras and 17 Handies delivered) due to the units queued/slipped from last year, we forecast that in 2017q2 the order book will stand at 6% of the fleet, which is the lowest on record.
In the meantime, at the other end of a vessel’s life, we witnessed about 8 Capesizes and 8 Panamaxes built after 2000 being scrapped during last year. The recent scrapping of a 2002 Panamax by China COSCO Shipping paves the way forward for additional 2000s tonnage to be demolished. The vast majority of these bulkers were scrapped from Chinese and Japanese Owners, a fact that we should praise (we also praise the relevant incentives for scrapping). The Sulphur cap together with the with IMO's recent ratification of Ballast Water Management convention will catalyze the accelerated scrapping over the next years. Thankfully, the overage (over 15-year-old) fleet is double the size of new buildings. The order book to vintage fleet ratio is especially attractive for Handy and Panamax newbuilding.
Order responsibly!
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 20 December 16
TURNAROUND IN CHINESE ECONOMY HAS INTENSIFIED RECENTLY, SAYS COMMODORE RESEARCH
According to the most recent Weekly China Report published by Commodore Research, it has remained encouraging that the turnaround in China’s ...
Monday, 19 December 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DOWN 3.1% PERCENT WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.8 million short ton ...
Monday, 19 December 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS CONTINUING TO SOFTEN
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continually decline this past week and ending on a negati ...
Thursday, 15 December 16
SUPRAMAXES ARE ACHIEVING AROUND HIGH USD 7K FOR INDO/CHINA COAL ROUNDS - FEARNLEY
Supramax
Pacific has been relatively quiet this week, with some softening signs.
Supramaxes are achieving around high USD 7k for Indo/China ...
Wednesday, 14 December 16
INTERNATIONAL TRIBUNAL DISMISSED CHURCHILL MINING'S DAMAGES CLAIM AGAINST REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA
The Directors of Churchill Mining plc advise that, the ICSID Tribunal (“Tribunal”) granted Indonesia’s application to dismiss the ...
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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