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Wednesday, 01 February 17
MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
 The recent placement of LOIs for 208kdwt Newcastlemax Newbuildings at $38.5m at Private Chinese Yard identifies with the modern history low for dry bulker shipbuilding. Adjusting for dwt, this would imply today $32m and $27.8m for 172kdwt and 150kdwt Capesize newbuilding, respectively. What a coincidence: in 1999 the 172kdwt Cape new buildings were placed for as low as $32m, while in 1986 the 150kdwt new buildings were placed for around $27m. All of the above are mentioned in nominal terms (not real dollars, ignoring inflation). It appears the $185/dwt is an intertemporal true (sub-)cost level for large dry bulkers.
The -once gigantic- dry bulk order book has been rapidly correcting itself. From its 2009 peak at 78% order book to fleet ratio, it is now constrained to 9% of the fleet, the lowest in 15 years. The dry bulk newbuilding slippage last year stood at 47%; in fact, the Kamsarmax newbuilding delivery rate was only 49%. While we currently face a strong wave of newbuilding deliveries (in January thus far we have 16 Capes, 26 Kamsarmaxes, 40 Ultras and 17 Handies delivered) due to the units queued/slipped from last year, we forecast that in 2017q2 the order book will stand at 6% of the fleet, which is the lowest on record.
In the meantime, at the other end of a vessel’s life, we witnessed about 8 Capesizes and 8 Panamaxes built after 2000 being scrapped during last year. The recent scrapping of a 2002 Panamax by China COSCO Shipping paves the way forward for additional 2000s tonnage to be demolished. The vast majority of these bulkers were scrapped from Chinese and Japanese Owners, a fact that we should praise (we also praise the relevant incentives for scrapping). The Sulphur cap together with the with IMO's recent ratification of Ballast Water Management convention will catalyze the accelerated scrapping over the next years. Thankfully, the overage (over 15-year-old) fleet is double the size of new buildings. The order book to vintage fleet ratio is especially attractive for Handy and Panamax newbuilding.
Order responsibly!
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 30 December 16
US WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION TOTALS 15.2 MMST, DOWN 3.1% - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.2 million sho ...
Thursday, 29 December 16
CHINA AIMS TO CAP COAL-FIRED POWER CAPACITY AT 1,100 GIGAWATTS BY THE END OF 2020 - REUTERS
China aims to cap total primary energy consumption at around 4.4 billion tonnes of coal equivalent in 2017, the director of the National Energy Adm ...
Wednesday, 28 December 16
FINANCIAL MARKETS AND COMMODITY MARKETS HAVE ALREADY SHOWED CONSIDERABLE IMPROVEMENT AND RENEWED OPTIMISM - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
As 2016 nears to a close many will be breathing a heavy sigh of relief, having made it through one of the toughest years in this century and lookin ...
Wednesday, 28 December 16
BUMA SIGNED APPROXIMATELY US$ 493 MILLION WORTH OF MINING SERVICES CONTRACTS WITH PT ADARO INDONESIA AND PT ANGSANA JAYA ENERGY
COALspot.com: PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. Has announced that its primary operating subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA") has ...
Monday, 26 December 16
DO THE DERIVATIVES MARKETS MAKE COAL PRICES MORE VOLATILE? 59.21% SAY YES, POLL
COALspot.com: The substantial increase or decrease in coal prices within a short period of time has been supported by a number of fundamental drive ...
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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