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Wednesday, 01 February 17
MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
 The recent placement of LOIs for 208kdwt Newcastlemax Newbuildings at $38.5m at Private Chinese Yard identifies with the modern history low for dry bulker shipbuilding. Adjusting for dwt, this would imply today $32m and $27.8m for 172kdwt and 150kdwt Capesize newbuilding, respectively. What a coincidence: in 1999 the 172kdwt Cape new buildings were placed for as low as $32m, while in 1986 the 150kdwt new buildings were placed for around $27m. All of the above are mentioned in nominal terms (not real dollars, ignoring inflation). It appears the $185/dwt is an intertemporal true (sub-)cost level for large dry bulkers.
The -once gigantic- dry bulk order book has been rapidly correcting itself. From its 2009 peak at 78% order book to fleet ratio, it is now constrained to 9% of the fleet, the lowest in 15 years. The dry bulk newbuilding slippage last year stood at 47%; in fact, the Kamsarmax newbuilding delivery rate was only 49%. While we currently face a strong wave of newbuilding deliveries (in January thus far we have 16 Capes, 26 Kamsarmaxes, 40 Ultras and 17 Handies delivered) due to the units queued/slipped from last year, we forecast that in 2017q2 the order book will stand at 6% of the fleet, which is the lowest on record.
In the meantime, at the other end of a vessel’s life, we witnessed about 8 Capesizes and 8 Panamaxes built after 2000 being scrapped during last year. The recent scrapping of a 2002 Panamax by China COSCO Shipping paves the way forward for additional 2000s tonnage to be demolished. The vast majority of these bulkers were scrapped from Chinese and Japanese Owners, a fact that we should praise (we also praise the relevant incentives for scrapping). The Sulphur cap together with the with IMO's recent ratification of Ballast Water Management convention will catalyze the accelerated scrapping over the next years. Thankfully, the overage (over 15-year-old) fleet is double the size of new buildings. The order book to vintage fleet ratio is especially attractive for Handy and Panamax newbuilding.
Order responsibly!
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 14 December 16
20/20 VISION! - JOHN N. COTZIAS
2020; A year that could be changing shipping. In early November, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) announced that it would set a 0.5% s ...
Tuesday, 13 December 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET MAY WELL BE SHOWING SIGNS OF HEADING FOR ITS DOWNWARD CORRECTIVE PHASE - ALLIED
2016 has been a tough market for dry bulkers and through these difficult earnings, we have seen some of the lowest prices being noted historically ...
Tuesday, 13 December 16
COAL DEMAND GROWTH TO STALL AS APPETITE WANES, ACCORDING TO IEA
Growth in global coal demand will stall over the next five years as the appetite for the fuel wanes and other energy sources gain ground, according ...
Monday, 12 December 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION TOTALS 16.3 MMST, UP 7.4% - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.3 million short ton ...
Monday, 12 December 16
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOFT THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline this past week and ending on a negative note week ...
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Coal Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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