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Wednesday, 01 February 17
MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
 The recent placement of LOIs for 208kdwt Newcastlemax Newbuildings at $38.5m at Private Chinese Yard identifies with the modern history low for dry bulker shipbuilding. Adjusting for dwt, this would imply today $32m and $27.8m for 172kdwt and 150kdwt Capesize newbuilding, respectively. What a coincidence: in 1999 the 172kdwt Cape new buildings were placed for as low as $32m, while in 1986 the 150kdwt new buildings were placed for around $27m. All of the above are mentioned in nominal terms (not real dollars, ignoring inflation). It appears the $185/dwt is an intertemporal true (sub-)cost level for large dry bulkers.
The -once gigantic- dry bulk order book has been rapidly correcting itself. From its 2009 peak at 78% order book to fleet ratio, it is now constrained to 9% of the fleet, the lowest in 15 years. The dry bulk newbuilding slippage last year stood at 47%; in fact, the Kamsarmax newbuilding delivery rate was only 49%. While we currently face a strong wave of newbuilding deliveries (in January thus far we have 16 Capes, 26 Kamsarmaxes, 40 Ultras and 17 Handies delivered) due to the units queued/slipped from last year, we forecast that in 2017q2 the order book will stand at 6% of the fleet, which is the lowest on record.
In the meantime, at the other end of a vessel’s life, we witnessed about 8 Capesizes and 8 Panamaxes built after 2000 being scrapped during last year. The recent scrapping of a 2002 Panamax by China COSCO Shipping paves the way forward for additional 2000s tonnage to be demolished. The vast majority of these bulkers were scrapped from Chinese and Japanese Owners, a fact that we should praise (we also praise the relevant incentives for scrapping). The Sulphur cap together with the with IMO's recent ratification of Ballast Water Management convention will catalyze the accelerated scrapping over the next years. Thankfully, the overage (over 15-year-old) fleet is double the size of new buildings. The order book to vintage fleet ratio is especially attractive for Handy and Panamax newbuilding.
Order responsibly!
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 09 January 17
FFA SUPRAMAX: Q1 AND Q2 TRADING UP TO $7100 WHILE CAL17 PRINTED $7250 - FIS
Capesize
Sentiment has swung quickly on capes and although there appears to be a very short list for open tonnage in the Atlantic Feb dates appea ...
Monday, 09 January 17
COAL MARKETS WERE UNEXPECTEDLY ONE OF THE STRONGEST PERFORMERS OF 2016 - SGX
COALspot.com: Coal markets were unexpectedly one of the strongest performers of 2016, with domestic production restrictions in China as well as sup ...
Monday, 09 January 17
THE INDONESIA COAL BENCHMARK PRICE SLIDES AFTER THE RECENT RALLY
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal benchmark price slides in January 2017 after the recent rally. The government declared benchmark prices for Indone ...
Friday, 06 January 17
U.S. WEEKLY ESTIMATED COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED APPROXIMATELY 12.4 MMST; DOWN 18.4% W/W - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 12.4 million short ton ...
Thursday, 05 January 17
UNCHANGED COAL-FIRED TARIFFS PRESSURE CHINA'S GENERATORS - FITCH
COALspot.com: China's decision to keep on-grid electricity prices from coal-fired power unchanged amid higher coal prices will further squeeze ...
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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