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Wednesday, 01 February 17
MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
 The recent placement of LOIs for 208kdwt Newcastlemax Newbuildings at $38.5m at Private Chinese Yard identifies with the modern history low for dry bulker shipbuilding. Adjusting for dwt, this would imply today $32m and $27.8m for 172kdwt and 150kdwt Capesize newbuilding, respectively. What a coincidence: in 1999 the 172kdwt Cape new buildings were placed for as low as $32m, while in 1986 the 150kdwt new buildings were placed for around $27m. All of the above are mentioned in nominal terms (not real dollars, ignoring inflation). It appears the $185/dwt is an intertemporal true (sub-)cost level for large dry bulkers.
The -once gigantic- dry bulk order book has been rapidly correcting itself. From its 2009 peak at 78% order book to fleet ratio, it is now constrained to 9% of the fleet, the lowest in 15 years. The dry bulk newbuilding slippage last year stood at 47%; in fact, the Kamsarmax newbuilding delivery rate was only 49%. While we currently face a strong wave of newbuilding deliveries (in January thus far we have 16 Capes, 26 Kamsarmaxes, 40 Ultras and 17 Handies delivered) due to the units queued/slipped from last year, we forecast that in 2017q2 the order book will stand at 6% of the fleet, which is the lowest on record.
In the meantime, at the other end of a vessel’s life, we witnessed about 8 Capesizes and 8 Panamaxes built after 2000 being scrapped during last year. The recent scrapping of a 2002 Panamax by China COSCO Shipping paves the way forward for additional 2000s tonnage to be demolished. The vast majority of these bulkers were scrapped from Chinese and Japanese Owners, a fact that we should praise (we also praise the relevant incentives for scrapping). The Sulphur cap together with the with IMO's recent ratification of Ballast Water Management convention will catalyze the accelerated scrapping over the next years. Thankfully, the overage (over 15-year-old) fleet is double the size of new buildings. The order book to vintage fleet ratio is especially attractive for Handy and Panamax newbuilding.
Order responsibly!
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 13 January 17
U.S. COAL PRICES TO INCREASE IN 2017 AND IN 2018 - EIA
Coal Supply
EIA estimates that U.S. coal production declined by 158 million short tons (MMst) (18%) in 2016, to 739 MMst, which would be the lowe ...
Friday, 13 January 17
U.S. COAL IMPORTS IN THIRD QUARTER 2016 TOTALED 2.7 MMST, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 13.8 million short ton ...
Thursday, 12 January 17
ASIA: COAL'S FUTURE - BENJAMIN SPORTON
As economies develop and the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are realised, demand for energy will increase as more peopl ...
Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a ...
Tuesday, 10 January 17
SHIPPING MARKET 2017
After having entered into a New Year, fresh hopes seem to be high for this to be the turning point in the market that many have been looking forwar ...
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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