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Wednesday, 25 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 Remember that old but classic song called “Destination Unknown”? Well that is where the oil market is heading right now. The song made a splash with a catchy beat and a noticeable video clip reaching the top of the charts. The oil market on the other hand, may attract attention however, whether it will head for higher or lower levels remains very uncertain.
As far as the performance of the crude oil price is concerned, the signals we are getting are so far mixed, with discouraging fundamentals and optimistic headlines equally affecting prices. Both OPEC and Non-OPEC countries have agreed a production cut as a way to deal with the global oil glut and low prices, which resulted in the Brent blend rallying from $46/bbl to a peak of $57/bbl on 6th January, while it’s currently trading around $55/bbl. So far, so good for the big boys of oil but what about the long-term sustainability of these higher price levels?
Russia’s production reached record highs in December and the second-biggest oil producer seemed very happy at this year’s World Economic Forum not only due to their large oil-driven revenues so far, but also due to positive expectations deriving from the new US president who suggests to ease or even remove sanctions imposed on Russia. Even though Russia’s production plays a significant role, the bigger determinant leading to the persistence of the glut could be US shale oil producers. With notably more operating costs and thus a higher breakeven than other oil extractors, most of shale drillers had shut-down production during lower prices only to come back into profitable business at current levels. Finally, taking into consideration the fact that the US dollar has strengthened, hitting a 14-year high during December, pressure for lower price levels grow stronger.
Keeping this insight melodic, you might recall the lyrics of another popular song of the 90s; “Hello, hello, hello, how low?”. Could this be the tune for the tanker market in 2017? The dominant common factor for both the dirty and clean market is the large number of newbuilding deliveries that could potentially lead to lower freight rates. Saying that, as in the short-run tonnage supply will not significantly change; demand is expected to primarily drive the market in the following months. In the dirty sector, lower oil prices may drive demand for ships higher however; those already excessive inventories could be an obstacle to such rally. The outlook for product tankers falls no further from the mixed-signal environment the dirty market operates in, with the LR market seeing a record-high in vessel deliveries. Greater diversification with respect to trade routes and cargoes, especially in the MR market allow for wider range projections; still forecasts for demand growth for petroleum products making any prediction for the freight market challenging.
In conclusion, well, is there any yet? Amidst mixed fundamentals it would be careless to prematurely jump to any conclusions, as market sentiment has proved to be not only an unpredictable factor but also an influential one. Under the current state of uncertainty, it is still unclear whether the bears will prevail or the bulls will be justified and thus the only safe conclusion that can be reached is nicely summed-up in the title of another pop music hit called “Blank Space”.
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Monday, 03 October 16
THERMAL COAL PRICE SHOOTS UP AND MADE THEIR VERTICAL MOVE IN 5 YEARS; PRICE RALLY CONTINUES
COALspot.com: A rally in thermal coal prices over the past few months, after years of decline, is still continuing and it is expected to rally at l ...
Monday, 03 October 16
DRY-BULK SHIPPING FREIGHTS SLIDE IN SOFTENING SPOT MARKET
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline slightly and ending in a negative note this past ...
Friday, 30 September 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT FELL 2.3% - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.7 million short ton ...
Friday, 30 September 16
OPEC CUT SUPPORTS SLOW OIL RECOVERY, NOT STRONG REBOUND - FITCH
OPEC's oil production target announced this week signals the potential for greater co-ordination among its members, but the target itself is la ...
Thursday, 29 September 16
FREIGHT RATES MIGHT CONTINUE TO SLIDE NEXT WEEK DUE TO HOLIDAYS IN CHINA
Supramax
Flat start to week followed by a slight gain in rates for Supramaxes, says Fearnleys in its latest weekly report.
According to Fear ...
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Coal Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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