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Wednesday, 25 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 Remember that old but classic song called “Destination Unknown”? Well that is where the oil market is heading right now. The song made a splash with a catchy beat and a noticeable video clip reaching the top of the charts. The oil market on the other hand, may attract attention however, whether it will head for higher or lower levels remains very uncertain.
As far as the performance of the crude oil price is concerned, the signals we are getting are so far mixed, with discouraging fundamentals and optimistic headlines equally affecting prices. Both OPEC and Non-OPEC countries have agreed a production cut as a way to deal with the global oil glut and low prices, which resulted in the Brent blend rallying from $46/bbl to a peak of $57/bbl on 6th January, while it’s currently trading around $55/bbl. So far, so good for the big boys of oil but what about the long-term sustainability of these higher price levels?
Russia’s production reached record highs in December and the second-biggest oil producer seemed very happy at this year’s World Economic Forum not only due to their large oil-driven revenues so far, but also due to positive expectations deriving from the new US president who suggests to ease or even remove sanctions imposed on Russia. Even though Russia’s production plays a significant role, the bigger determinant leading to the persistence of the glut could be US shale oil producers. With notably more operating costs and thus a higher breakeven than other oil extractors, most of shale drillers had shut-down production during lower prices only to come back into profitable business at current levels. Finally, taking into consideration the fact that the US dollar has strengthened, hitting a 14-year high during December, pressure for lower price levels grow stronger.
Keeping this insight melodic, you might recall the lyrics of another popular song of the 90s; “Hello, hello, hello, how low?”. Could this be the tune for the tanker market in 2017? The dominant common factor for both the dirty and clean market is the large number of newbuilding deliveries that could potentially lead to lower freight rates. Saying that, as in the short-run tonnage supply will not significantly change; demand is expected to primarily drive the market in the following months. In the dirty sector, lower oil prices may drive demand for ships higher however; those already excessive inventories could be an obstacle to such rally. The outlook for product tankers falls no further from the mixed-signal environment the dirty market operates in, with the LR market seeing a record-high in vessel deliveries. Greater diversification with respect to trade routes and cargoes, especially in the MR market allow for wider range projections; still forecasts for demand growth for petroleum products making any prediction for the freight market challenging.
In conclusion, well, is there any yet? Amidst mixed fundamentals it would be careless to prematurely jump to any conclusions, as market sentiment has proved to be not only an unpredictable factor but also an influential one. Under the current state of uncertainty, it is still unclear whether the bears will prevail or the bulls will be justified and thus the only safe conclusion that can be reached is nicely summed-up in the title of another pop music hit called “Blank Space”.
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Wednesday, 12 October 16
INDIAN STEELMAKERS' DELEVERAGING AT RISK ON COKING COAL PRICE JUMP - FITCH
The sharp increase in coking coal prices since August 2016 could squeeze Indian steelmakers' profitability and threaten their deleveraging, Fit ...
Wednesday, 12 October 16
UK SEABORNE COAL IMPORT PLUNGES 64% AS A WORRYING TREND LURKS - BIMCO
The main exporters of thermal coal for coal- fired power plants to the United Kingdom (UK) have experienced a heavy decline in seaborne cargo volum ...
Monday, 10 October 16
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HITS HIGHEST LEVELS SINCE SEPTEMBER 2014
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal benchmark price hits to its highest level since September 2014. The government declared benchmark prices for Indon ...
Monday, 10 October 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET FIRMS UP ON STRONG CAPE PERFORMANCE
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose again and ending in a positive note this past week. ...
Friday, 07 October 16
INDONESIA'S DEMAND FOR COAL REMAINS STRONG: BP
Indonesia's domestic demand for coal shows no sign of slowing down as the country is banking on its coal abundance to meet the country' ...
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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