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Wednesday, 25 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 Remember that old but classic song called “Destination Unknown”? Well that is where the oil market is heading right now. The song made a splash with a catchy beat and a noticeable video clip reaching the top of the charts. The oil market on the other hand, may attract attention however, whether it will head for higher or lower levels remains very uncertain.
As far as the performance of the crude oil price is concerned, the signals we are getting are so far mixed, with discouraging fundamentals and optimistic headlines equally affecting prices. Both OPEC and Non-OPEC countries have agreed a production cut as a way to deal with the global oil glut and low prices, which resulted in the Brent blend rallying from $46/bbl to a peak of $57/bbl on 6th January, while it’s currently trading around $55/bbl. So far, so good for the big boys of oil but what about the long-term sustainability of these higher price levels?
Russia’s production reached record highs in December and the second-biggest oil producer seemed very happy at this year’s World Economic Forum not only due to their large oil-driven revenues so far, but also due to positive expectations deriving from the new US president who suggests to ease or even remove sanctions imposed on Russia. Even though Russia’s production plays a significant role, the bigger determinant leading to the persistence of the glut could be US shale oil producers. With notably more operating costs and thus a higher breakeven than other oil extractors, most of shale drillers had shut-down production during lower prices only to come back into profitable business at current levels. Finally, taking into consideration the fact that the US dollar has strengthened, hitting a 14-year high during December, pressure for lower price levels grow stronger.
Keeping this insight melodic, you might recall the lyrics of another popular song of the 90s; “Hello, hello, hello, how low?”. Could this be the tune for the tanker market in 2017? The dominant common factor for both the dirty and clean market is the large number of newbuilding deliveries that could potentially lead to lower freight rates. Saying that, as in the short-run tonnage supply will not significantly change; demand is expected to primarily drive the market in the following months. In the dirty sector, lower oil prices may drive demand for ships higher however; those already excessive inventories could be an obstacle to such rally. The outlook for product tankers falls no further from the mixed-signal environment the dirty market operates in, with the LR market seeing a record-high in vessel deliveries. Greater diversification with respect to trade routes and cargoes, especially in the MR market allow for wider range projections; still forecasts for demand growth for petroleum products making any prediction for the freight market challenging.
In conclusion, well, is there any yet? Amidst mixed fundamentals it would be careless to prematurely jump to any conclusions, as market sentiment has proved to be not only an unpredictable factor but also an influential one. Under the current state of uncertainty, it is still unclear whether the bears will prevail or the bulls will be justified and thus the only safe conclusion that can be reached is nicely summed-up in the title of another pop music hit called “Blank Space”.
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Tuesday, 20 December 16
TURNAROUND IN CHINESE ECONOMY HAS INTENSIFIED RECENTLY, SAYS COMMODORE RESEARCH
According to the most recent Weekly China Report published by Commodore Research, it has remained encouraging that the turnaround in China’s ...
Monday, 19 December 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DOWN 3.1% PERCENT WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.8 million short ton ...
Monday, 19 December 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS CONTINUING TO SOFTEN
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continually decline this past week and ending on a negati ...
Thursday, 15 December 16
SUPRAMAXES ARE ACHIEVING AROUND HIGH USD 7K FOR INDO/CHINA COAL ROUNDS - FEARNLEY
Supramax
Pacific has been relatively quiet this week, with some softening signs.
Supramaxes are achieving around high USD 7k for Indo/China ...
Wednesday, 14 December 16
INTERNATIONAL TRIBUNAL DISMISSED CHURCHILL MINING'S DAMAGES CLAIM AGAINST REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA
The Directors of Churchill Mining plc advise that, the ICSID Tribunal (“Tribunal”) granted Indonesia’s application to dismiss the ...
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The University of Queensland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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