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Wednesday, 25 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 Remember that old but classic song called “Destination Unknown”? Well that is where the oil market is heading right now. The song made a splash with a catchy beat and a noticeable video clip reaching the top of the charts. The oil market on the other hand, may attract attention however, whether it will head for higher or lower levels remains very uncertain.
As far as the performance of the crude oil price is concerned, the signals we are getting are so far mixed, with discouraging fundamentals and optimistic headlines equally affecting prices. Both OPEC and Non-OPEC countries have agreed a production cut as a way to deal with the global oil glut and low prices, which resulted in the Brent blend rallying from $46/bbl to a peak of $57/bbl on 6th January, while it’s currently trading around $55/bbl. So far, so good for the big boys of oil but what about the long-term sustainability of these higher price levels?
Russia’s production reached record highs in December and the second-biggest oil producer seemed very happy at this year’s World Economic Forum not only due to their large oil-driven revenues so far, but also due to positive expectations deriving from the new US president who suggests to ease or even remove sanctions imposed on Russia. Even though Russia’s production plays a significant role, the bigger determinant leading to the persistence of the glut could be US shale oil producers. With notably more operating costs and thus a higher breakeven than other oil extractors, most of shale drillers had shut-down production during lower prices only to come back into profitable business at current levels. Finally, taking into consideration the fact that the US dollar has strengthened, hitting a 14-year high during December, pressure for lower price levels grow stronger.
Keeping this insight melodic, you might recall the lyrics of another popular song of the 90s; “Hello, hello, hello, how low?”. Could this be the tune for the tanker market in 2017? The dominant common factor for both the dirty and clean market is the large number of newbuilding deliveries that could potentially lead to lower freight rates. Saying that, as in the short-run tonnage supply will not significantly change; demand is expected to primarily drive the market in the following months. In the dirty sector, lower oil prices may drive demand for ships higher however; those already excessive inventories could be an obstacle to such rally. The outlook for product tankers falls no further from the mixed-signal environment the dirty market operates in, with the LR market seeing a record-high in vessel deliveries. Greater diversification with respect to trade routes and cargoes, especially in the MR market allow for wider range projections; still forecasts for demand growth for petroleum products making any prediction for the freight market challenging.
In conclusion, well, is there any yet? Amidst mixed fundamentals it would be careless to prematurely jump to any conclusions, as market sentiment has proved to be not only an unpredictable factor but also an influential one. Under the current state of uncertainty, it is still unclear whether the bears will prevail or the bulls will be justified and thus the only safe conclusion that can be reached is nicely summed-up in the title of another pop music hit called “Blank Space”.
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Friday, 30 December 16
US WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION TOTALS 15.2 MMST, DOWN 3.1% - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.2 million sho ...
Thursday, 29 December 16
CHINA AIMS TO CAP COAL-FIRED POWER CAPACITY AT 1,100 GIGAWATTS BY THE END OF 2020 - REUTERS
China aims to cap total primary energy consumption at around 4.4 billion tonnes of coal equivalent in 2017, the director of the National Energy Adm ...
Wednesday, 28 December 16
FINANCIAL MARKETS AND COMMODITY MARKETS HAVE ALREADY SHOWED CONSIDERABLE IMPROVEMENT AND RENEWED OPTIMISM - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
As 2016 nears to a close many will be breathing a heavy sigh of relief, having made it through one of the toughest years in this century and lookin ...
Wednesday, 28 December 16
BUMA SIGNED APPROXIMATELY US$ 493 MILLION WORTH OF MINING SERVICES CONTRACTS WITH PT ADARO INDONESIA AND PT ANGSANA JAYA ENERGY
COALspot.com: PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. Has announced that its primary operating subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA") has ...
Monday, 26 December 16
DO THE DERIVATIVES MARKETS MAKE COAL PRICES MORE VOLATILE? 59.21% SAY YES, POLL
COALspot.com: The substantial increase or decrease in coal prices within a short period of time has been supported by a number of fundamental drive ...
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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