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Wednesday, 05 October 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
 On September 27th the OPEC petroleum and energy ministers arrived in Algeria to attend the International Energy Forum, which brought together producers and consumers to discuss the present energy market conditions. After the closing of the IEF conference, OPEC Ministers held informal talks in an effort to cut a deal that would either freeze or reduce oil supply in pursuit of more stabilized markets and elevated oil prices. The current output OPEC members is more than 33.2 million barrels a day and inventories will grow even higher if no action is taken. It has been argued that oil production needs to be reduced by 1 million barrels a day so that the market rebalances. Likewise, Algeria’s energy minister reasoned that “oil has sufficiently fluctuated on speculation that OPEC and Russia will agree to support oil prices in the midst of oversupply”.
The question that arises is if OPEC members can do the impossible, which for most seems like having a mountain to climb. As discussed, one of the reasons that oil prices are low is due to the oversupplied market with members having had no success in negotiating production cutbacks so far. Major producers, driven by Saudi Arabia have been pumping at near record levels over the last two years, trying to maintain their market share by squeezing out higher cost producers such as the U.S and Canada. Consequently, since 2014 oil prices have dropped by 60% and U.S. production has diminished. The income of nations such as Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Russia depends on their exports and low prices have proven to be troublesome. Furthermore, consenting to production freeze at current levels may seem a fair compromise but not a promising solution. IEA forecasts that global oil surplus will last well into 2017 as demand grows at a slower pace than previously foreseen, particularly in Asia. Meanwhile, not only OPEC members output is at record levels but Russia is also producing close to its maximum capacity, while Libya and Nigeria indicate they want to raise their output for the rest of this year.
Moreover, Iran's full on return earlier this year further affected the market, as the country has been continuously increasing its oil output in an effort to once more claim its place as one of the world's top oil exporters. In any case, Saudi Arabia won’t wish for Iran to expand its production while the country itself is cutting back as that would mean handing over market share to its main regional competitor. It was recently reported that Saudi Arabia may agree to decrease production if only Iran acknowledges freezing its output level. Either way, once OPEC members come to an agreement they won’t want prices to go higher than $55-60 per barrel as they will risk helping higher cost competitors, such as shale oil producers, to get back in the game.
Inevitably, the equilibrium point is fragile for leading oil producers to achieve. On one side, a greedy stance to accomplish higher prices will give the leeway to higher cost producers to step in and on the other side a conservative attitude to defend their market share, flirts with the risk of operating at a loss. The global oil market has faced numerous difficulties, deriving essentially from excess supply. Oil-exporting countries and companies’ profits have deteriorated, increasing their budget deficits and crippling their economy. Additionally, those low prices inevitably lead to layoffs and reductions in new venture spending. But even with all these negative effects, the scenario in which the stagnation of oil major oil producers eventually leads to demand exceeding supply and leads to higher prices is a bit off. So IT IS really down to OPEC’s joined action despite many believing that the organization can’t do much these days.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 19 September 16
AFTER YEARS OF COMA, COAL BECOMES THE MOST ATTRACTIVE COMMODITY RIGHT NOW
COALspot.com: China boosted coal imports in recent months. The Chinese government’s drive to cut over capacity pushed up the demand for therm ...
Monday, 19 September 16
THE CAPE INDEX WAS UP 7.28% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities declined and ending in a slightly negative note this past ...
Friday, 16 September 16
GLOBAL SHIPBUILDING: THE CHALLENGE TO REMAIN 'ACTIVE' - CHRISTOPHER PEARCE, CLARKSONS
The number of ‘active’ shipyards globally has more than halved since the start of 2009, falling to around 400 shipyards at the start of ...
Friday, 16 September 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT DECLINED 6.2% TO 15.1 MMST, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.1 million short ton ...
Thursday, 15 September 16
INDONESIA MAY FACE A COAL CRISIS BY 2035!
COALspot.com: Indonesia is the world’s fourth-largest coal producer and the world’s largest thermal coal exporter may face a coal crisi ...
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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