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Friday, 30 September 16
OPEC CUT SUPPORTS SLOW OIL RECOVERY, NOT STRONG REBOUND - FITCH
 OPEC's oil production target announced this week signals the potential for greater co-ordination among its members, but the target itself is largely symbolic, Fitch Ratings says. The announcement supports our view that oil prices will continue their recovery, but does not make a strong rebound materially more likely.
OPEC members agreed a production target of 32.5m-33.0m b/d at a meeting in Algiers on Wednesday "to accelerate the ongoing drawdown of the stock overhang and bring... rebalancing forward." A high-level committee will recommend member country production levels and there will be "serious and constructive dialogue" with non-member producers on how to stabilize the oil market. OPEC will consider the outcomes at its 30 November meeting in Vienna.
The target implies a production cut of between 240,000 b/d and 740,000 b/d from August levels. This would be the first agreed cut since 2008, and it indicates a slightly greater propensity to co-operate between OPEC's members to support prices.
This reduces downside risk to oil prices and reinforces our expectation that the stabilisation and recovery since the beginning of the year will continue. This is reflected in our forecasts for average prices for Brent and WTI of USD45/b in 2017 and USD55/b in 2018.
Our view incorporates a market that will on average be broadly balanced next year. This reflects demand improvement combined with modest production curtailments outside OPEC, principally in the US (the US Energy Information Administration this month forecast US crude oil production will drop to 8.8m b/d in 2016 from 9.4m b/d in 2015). While the OPEC cut, if agreed, makes a modest deficit more likely next year, this will not be enough to normalise OECD stock levels, which OPEC estimates at 341 million barrels above their five-year average.
More detailed discussions over the next two months will test the willingness of OPEC members to co-operate to reduce production. The envisaged reduction may well be achieved via seasonal falls in production (for example, in the Gulf where changes in domestic consumption patterns traditionally cause a substantial drop in production between August and November).
OPEC's announcement pushed oil prices higher, but they have since retraced some of their gains, and are below the year-to-date peak seen in early summer. Weaker-than-anticipated demand so far in 2016 may limit price increases. The International Energy Agency reduced its forecast for global demand growth by 0.1m b/d earlier in September, and said that momentum would ease further in 2017 "as underlying macroeconomic conditions remain uncertain."
Fitch's long-term expectations for both Brent and WTI of USD65/b reflect our view on the long-run marginal cost of supply. The oil price fall seen since 2014 has been a key driver of sovereign rating changes this year, although the recovery has eased broader macro pressures across emerging markets. Prices of USD40/b-USD50/b allow the majority of Fitch-rated corporate oil producers to cover their cash production costs, and a portion of their sunk costs, but remain below full-cycle costs for most producers.
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Wednesday, 28 September 16
WITHOUT A DOUBT FREIGHT RATES HAVE MOVED UP A BIT TO HEALTHIER LEVELS - INTERMODAL
As we are approaching Q4, it is interesting to perform a review of the last nine months with respect to the second-hand prices of Supramax and Pana ...
Tuesday, 27 September 16
THE CAPESIZE RATE OF INCREASE HAS BEEN IMPRESSIVE, UP 39% W/W AND 123% MONTH TO DATE - ALLIED
The Dry bulk market has seen a rare shine in its performance as the capesize sector manages to rally at an unprecedented rate compared to its perfo ...
Monday, 26 September 16
COAL PRICES HAVE BEEN MOVING STEADILY HIGHER AFTER YEARS OF DECLINE
COALspot.com: A rally in thermal coal prices over the past few months, after years of decline, is still continuing and it is expected to rally at l ...
Monday, 26 September 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS FIRM; ALL SEGMENTS WERE UP THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose and ending in a positive note this past week. The BD ...
Friday, 23 September 16
"COLLATERAL LIES" DO NOT NECESSARILY UNDERMINE AN INSURANCE CLAIM
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
An insured was not precluded from recovering under an insurance policy even though it had made a false statement during t ...
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
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