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Friday, 30 September 16
OPEC CUT SUPPORTS SLOW OIL RECOVERY, NOT STRONG REBOUND - FITCH
 OPEC's oil production target announced this week signals the potential for greater co-ordination among its members, but the target itself is largely symbolic, Fitch Ratings says. The announcement supports our view that oil prices will continue their recovery, but does not make a strong rebound materially more likely.
OPEC members agreed a production target of 32.5m-33.0m b/d at a meeting in Algiers on Wednesday "to accelerate the ongoing drawdown of the stock overhang and bring... rebalancing forward." A high-level committee will recommend member country production levels and there will be "serious and constructive dialogue" with non-member producers on how to stabilize the oil market. OPEC will consider the outcomes at its 30 November meeting in Vienna.
The target implies a production cut of between 240,000 b/d and 740,000 b/d from August levels. This would be the first agreed cut since 2008, and it indicates a slightly greater propensity to co-operate between OPEC's members to support prices.
This reduces downside risk to oil prices and reinforces our expectation that the stabilisation and recovery since the beginning of the year will continue. This is reflected in our forecasts for average prices for Brent and WTI of USD45/b in 2017 and USD55/b in 2018.
Our view incorporates a market that will on average be broadly balanced next year. This reflects demand improvement combined with modest production curtailments outside OPEC, principally in the US (the US Energy Information Administration this month forecast US crude oil production will drop to 8.8m b/d in 2016 from 9.4m b/d in 2015). While the OPEC cut, if agreed, makes a modest deficit more likely next year, this will not be enough to normalise OECD stock levels, which OPEC estimates at 341 million barrels above their five-year average.
More detailed discussions over the next two months will test the willingness of OPEC members to co-operate to reduce production. The envisaged reduction may well be achieved via seasonal falls in production (for example, in the Gulf where changes in domestic consumption patterns traditionally cause a substantial drop in production between August and November).
OPEC's announcement pushed oil prices higher, but they have since retraced some of their gains, and are below the year-to-date peak seen in early summer. Weaker-than-anticipated demand so far in 2016 may limit price increases. The International Energy Agency reduced its forecast for global demand growth by 0.1m b/d earlier in September, and said that momentum would ease further in 2017 "as underlying macroeconomic conditions remain uncertain."
Fitch's long-term expectations for both Brent and WTI of USD65/b reflect our view on the long-run marginal cost of supply. The oil price fall seen since 2014 has been a key driver of sovereign rating changes this year, although the recovery has eased broader macro pressures across emerging markets. Prices of USD40/b-USD50/b allow the majority of Fitch-rated corporate oil producers to cover their cash production costs, and a portion of their sunk costs, but remain below full-cycle costs for most producers.
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Wednesday, 05 October 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
On September 27th the OPEC petroleum and energy ministers arrived in Algeria to attend the International Energy Forum, which brought together produ ...
Monday, 03 October 16
THERMAL COAL PRICE SHOOTS UP AND MADE THEIR VERTICAL MOVE IN 5 YEARS; PRICE RALLY CONTINUES
COALspot.com: A rally in thermal coal prices over the past few months, after years of decline, is still continuing and it is expected to rally at l ...
Monday, 03 October 16
DRY-BULK SHIPPING FREIGHTS SLIDE IN SOFTENING SPOT MARKET
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline slightly and ending in a negative note this past ...
Friday, 30 September 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT FELL 2.3% - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.7 million short ton ...
Thursday, 29 September 16
FREIGHT RATES MIGHT CONTINUE TO SLIDE NEXT WEEK DUE TO HOLIDAYS IN CHINA
Supramax
Flat start to week followed by a slight gain in rates for Supramaxes, says Fearnleys in its latest weekly report.
According to Fear ...
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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