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Friday, 30 September 16
OPEC CUT SUPPORTS SLOW OIL RECOVERY, NOT STRONG REBOUND - FITCH
 OPEC's oil production target announced this week signals the potential for greater co-ordination among its members, but the target itself is largely symbolic, Fitch Ratings says. The announcement supports our view that oil prices will continue their recovery, but does not make a strong rebound materially more likely.
OPEC members agreed a production target of 32.5m-33.0m b/d at a meeting in Algiers on Wednesday "to accelerate the ongoing drawdown of the stock overhang and bring... rebalancing forward." A high-level committee will recommend member country production levels and there will be "serious and constructive dialogue" with non-member producers on how to stabilize the oil market. OPEC will consider the outcomes at its 30 November meeting in Vienna.
The target implies a production cut of between 240,000 b/d and 740,000 b/d from August levels. This would be the first agreed cut since 2008, and it indicates a slightly greater propensity to co-operate between OPEC's members to support prices.
This reduces downside risk to oil prices and reinforces our expectation that the stabilisation and recovery since the beginning of the year will continue. This is reflected in our forecasts for average prices for Brent and WTI of USD45/b in 2017 and USD55/b in 2018.
Our view incorporates a market that will on average be broadly balanced next year. This reflects demand improvement combined with modest production curtailments outside OPEC, principally in the US (the US Energy Information Administration this month forecast US crude oil production will drop to 8.8m b/d in 2016 from 9.4m b/d in 2015). While the OPEC cut, if agreed, makes a modest deficit more likely next year, this will not be enough to normalise OECD stock levels, which OPEC estimates at 341 million barrels above their five-year average.
More detailed discussions over the next two months will test the willingness of OPEC members to co-operate to reduce production. The envisaged reduction may well be achieved via seasonal falls in production (for example, in the Gulf where changes in domestic consumption patterns traditionally cause a substantial drop in production between August and November).
OPEC's announcement pushed oil prices higher, but they have since retraced some of their gains, and are below the year-to-date peak seen in early summer. Weaker-than-anticipated demand so far in 2016 may limit price increases. The International Energy Agency reduced its forecast for global demand growth by 0.1m b/d earlier in September, and said that momentum would ease further in 2017 "as underlying macroeconomic conditions remain uncertain."
Fitch's long-term expectations for both Brent and WTI of USD65/b reflect our view on the long-run marginal cost of supply. The oil price fall seen since 2014 has been a key driver of sovereign rating changes this year, although the recovery has eased broader macro pressures across emerging markets. Prices of USD40/b-USD50/b allow the majority of Fitch-rated corporate oil producers to cover their cash production costs, and a portion of their sunk costs, but remain below full-cycle costs for most producers.
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Wednesday, 05 October 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
On September 27th the OPEC petroleum and energy ministers arrived in Algeria to attend the International Energy Forum, which brought together produ ...
Monday, 03 October 16
THERMAL COAL PRICE SHOOTS UP AND MADE THEIR VERTICAL MOVE IN 5 YEARS; PRICE RALLY CONTINUES
COALspot.com: A rally in thermal coal prices over the past few months, after years of decline, is still continuing and it is expected to rally at l ...
Monday, 03 October 16
DRY-BULK SHIPPING FREIGHTS SLIDE IN SOFTENING SPOT MARKET
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline slightly and ending in a negative note this past ...
Friday, 30 September 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT FELL 2.3% - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.7 million short ton ...
Thursday, 29 September 16
FREIGHT RATES MIGHT CONTINUE TO SLIDE NEXT WEEK DUE TO HOLIDAYS IN CHINA
Supramax
Flat start to week followed by a slight gain in rates for Supramaxes, says Fearnleys in its latest weekly report.
According to Fear ...
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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