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Friday, 30 September 16
OPEC CUT SUPPORTS SLOW OIL RECOVERY, NOT STRONG REBOUND - FITCH
 OPEC's oil production target announced this week signals the potential for greater co-ordination among its members, but the target itself is largely symbolic, Fitch Ratings says. The announcement supports our view that oil prices will continue their recovery, but does not make a strong rebound materially more likely.
OPEC members agreed a production target of 32.5m-33.0m b/d at a meeting in Algiers on Wednesday "to accelerate the ongoing drawdown of the stock overhang and bring... rebalancing forward." A high-level committee will recommend member country production levels and there will be "serious and constructive dialogue" with non-member producers on how to stabilize the oil market. OPEC will consider the outcomes at its 30 November meeting in Vienna.
The target implies a production cut of between 240,000 b/d and 740,000 b/d from August levels. This would be the first agreed cut since 2008, and it indicates a slightly greater propensity to co-operate between OPEC's members to support prices.
This reduces downside risk to oil prices and reinforces our expectation that the stabilisation and recovery since the beginning of the year will continue. This is reflected in our forecasts for average prices for Brent and WTI of USD45/b in 2017 and USD55/b in 2018.
Our view incorporates a market that will on average be broadly balanced next year. This reflects demand improvement combined with modest production curtailments outside OPEC, principally in the US (the US Energy Information Administration this month forecast US crude oil production will drop to 8.8m b/d in 2016 from 9.4m b/d in 2015). While the OPEC cut, if agreed, makes a modest deficit more likely next year, this will not be enough to normalise OECD stock levels, which OPEC estimates at 341 million barrels above their five-year average.
More detailed discussions over the next two months will test the willingness of OPEC members to co-operate to reduce production. The envisaged reduction may well be achieved via seasonal falls in production (for example, in the Gulf where changes in domestic consumption patterns traditionally cause a substantial drop in production between August and November).
OPEC's announcement pushed oil prices higher, but they have since retraced some of their gains, and are below the year-to-date peak seen in early summer. Weaker-than-anticipated demand so far in 2016 may limit price increases. The International Energy Agency reduced its forecast for global demand growth by 0.1m b/d earlier in September, and said that momentum would ease further in 2017 "as underlying macroeconomic conditions remain uncertain."
Fitch's long-term expectations for both Brent and WTI of USD65/b reflect our view on the long-run marginal cost of supply. The oil price fall seen since 2014 has been a key driver of sovereign rating changes this year, although the recovery has eased broader macro pressures across emerging markets. Prices of USD40/b-USD50/b allow the majority of Fitch-rated corporate oil producers to cover their cash production costs, and a portion of their sunk costs, but remain below full-cycle costs for most producers.
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Monday, 19 September 16
AFTER YEARS OF COMA, COAL BECOMES THE MOST ATTRACTIVE COMMODITY RIGHT NOW
COALspot.com: China boosted coal imports in recent months. The Chinese government’s drive to cut over capacity pushed up the demand for therm ...
Monday, 19 September 16
THE CAPE INDEX WAS UP 7.28% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities declined and ending in a slightly negative note this past ...
Friday, 16 September 16
GLOBAL SHIPBUILDING: THE CHALLENGE TO REMAIN 'ACTIVE' - CHRISTOPHER PEARCE, CLARKSONS
The number of ‘active’ shipyards globally has more than halved since the start of 2009, falling to around 400 shipyards at the start of ...
Friday, 16 September 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT DECLINED 6.2% TO 15.1 MMST, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.1 million short ton ...
Thursday, 15 September 16
INDONESIA MAY FACE A COAL CRISIS BY 2035!
COALspot.com: Indonesia is the world’s fourth-largest coal producer and the world’s largest thermal coal exporter may face a coal crisi ...
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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